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The 8 April ceasefire announcement and parallel discussions around a 45-day truce have not resolved the Strait of Hormuz disruption. They have, for now, capped the worst-case scenario, but tanker traffic remains at a fraction of normal levels and Iran's demand for transit fees signals a structural shift, not a temporary one.
What began as a regional conflict has become a global energy shock, and the question for markets is no longer whether Hormuz was disrupted, but how permanently the disruption changes the pricing floor for oil.
Key takeaways
- Around 20 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil and petroleum products normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman, equal to about one-fifth of global oil consumption and roughly 30% of global seaborne oil trade.
- This is a flow shock, not an inventory problem. Oil markets depend on continuous throughput, not static storage.
- If the disruption persists beyond a few weeks, Brent could shift from a short-term spike to a broader price shock, with stagflation risk.
- Tanker traffic through the strait fell from around 135 ships per day to fewer than 15 at the peak of disruption, a reduction of approximately 85%, with more than 150 vessels anchored, diverted, or delayed.
- A two-week ceasefire was announced on 8 April, with 45-day truce negotiations under way. Iran has separately signalled a demand for transit fees on vessels using the strait, which, if formalised, would represent a permanent geopolitical floor on energy costs.
- Markets have begun rotating away from growth and technology exposure toward energy and defence names, reflecting a view that elevated oil is becoming a structural cost rather than a temporary risk premium.
The world’s most critical oil chokepoint
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20 million barrels per day of oil and petroleum products, equal to about 20% of global oil consumption and around 30% of global seaborne oil trade. With global oil demand near 104 million bpd and spare capacity limited, the market was already tightly balanced before the latest escalation.
The strait is also a critical corridor for liquefied natural gas. Around 290 million cubic metres of LNG transited the route each day on average in 2024, representing roughly 20% of global LNG trade, with Asian markets the main destination.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has described Hormuz as the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint, noting that even partial interruptions may trigger outsized price moves. Brent crude has moved above US$100 a barrel, reflecting both physical tightness and a rising geopolitical risk premium.
Tankers idle as flows slow
Shipping and insurance data now point to strain in real time. More than 85 large crude carriers are reported to be stranded in the Persian Gulf, while more than 150 vessels have been anchored, diverted or delayed as operators reassess safety and insurance cover. That would leave an estimated 120 million to 150 million barrels of crude sitting idle at sea.
Those volumes represent only six to seven days of normal Hormuz throughput, or a little more than one day of global oil consumption.
Updated shipping and insurance data now confirm more than 150 vessels have been anchored, diverted, or delayed, up from the 85 initially reported. The 1.3 days of global consumption coverage from idle crude remains the binding constraint: this is a flow shock, not a storage problem, and the ceasefire has not yet translated into meaningfully restored throughput.
A market built on flow, not storage
Oil markets function on continuous movement. Refineries, petrochemical plants and global supply chains are calibrated to steady deliveries along predictable sea lanes. When flows through a chokepoint that carries roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption and around 30% of global seaborne oil trade are interrupted, the system can move from equilibrium to deficit within days.
Spare production capacity, largely concentrated within OPEC, is estimated at only 3 million to 5 million bpd. That falls well short of the volumes at risk if Hormuz flows are severely disrupted.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Inflation risks and macro spillovers
The inflationary impact of an oil shock typically arrives in waves. Higher fuel and energy prices may lift headline inflation quickly as petrol, diesel and power costs move higher.
Over time, higher energy costs may pass through freight, food, manufacturing and services. If the disruption persists, the combination of elevated inflation and slower growth could raise the risk of a stagflationary environment and leave central banks facing a difficult trade-off.
No easy offset, a system with little slack
What makes the current episode particularly acute is the lack of slack in the global system.
Global supply and demand near 103 million to 104 million bpd leave little spare cushion when a chokepoint handling nearly 20 million bpd, or about one-fifth of global oil consumption, is compromised. Estimated spare capacity of 3 million to 5 million bpd, mostly within OPEC, would cover only a fraction of the volumes at risk.
Alternative routes, including pipelines that bypass Hormuz and rerouted shipping, can only partly offset lost flows, and usually at higher cost and with longer lead times.
Bottom line
Until transit through the Strait of Hormuz is restored and seen as credibly secure, global oil flows are likely to remain impaired and risk premia elevated. For investors, policymakers and corporate decision-makers, the core question is whether oil can move where it needs to go, every day, without interruption.
NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO) announced Q3 financial results before the market open in the US on Thursday. The Chinese automaker fell short of analyst estimates for the quarter. The company reported revenue of $1.827 billion (up by 26.3% from the same period last year) vs. $1.836 billion estimate.
Loss per share reported at -$0.297 per share vs. analyst estimate of -$0.147 loss per share. ''NIO delivered 31,607 vehicles in the third quarter of 2022, representing a solid growth of 29.3% year-over-year and achieving a record-breaking quarterly delivery. Following the delivery of our new product lineup based on NIO Technology 2.0 catering to different market segments, we have witnessed strong growth momentum in user demand and robust foot traffic, especially after the debut of ET5s in stores from September, and expect the ET5 delivery will support a substantial acceleration of our overall revenue growth in the fourth quarter of 2022. To meet the growing user demand and shorten the waiting time, we have been working closely with supply chain partners to accelerate production and delivery,'' William Bin Li, founder, chairman and CEO of NIO said in a press release after the latest numbers were announced.
NIO expects revenues of between $2.442 billion and $2.703 billion in Q4, which would be an increase of between 75.4% to 94.2% from the same period last year. Shares of NIO were up by over 10% on Thursday, despite missing Q3 estimates as the company looks to accelerate production and delivery to meet growing demand in Q4. Stock performance 1 month: -18.74% 3 month: -50.12% Year-to-date: -67.22% 1 year: -75.39% NIO price targets Morgan Stanley: $31 HSBC: $28 Goldman Sachs: $56 Barclays: $34 Mizuho: $42 Citigroup: $31.3 B of A Securities: $26 UBS: $32 Barclays: $19 Deutsche Bank: $20 NIO is the 23 rd largest automaker in the world with a market cap of $17.71 billion.
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The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) reported the latest financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended October 1, 2022, after the closing bell in the US on Tuesday. The biggest entertainment company in the world missed both revenue and earnings per share estimates (EPS) for the quarter. The company reported revenue of $20.15 billion for the quarter (up by 9% year-over-year) vs. the $21.268 billion estimate.
EPS reported at $0.30 per share (down by 19% year-over-year) vs. the $0.558 per share expected. Revenue reached $82.722 billion for the fiscal year that ended October 1, 2022 – up 23% from the previous year. EPS reported at $3.53% per share, up by 54% from 2021. ''2022 was a strong year for Disney, with some of our best storytelling yet, record results at our Parks, Experiences and Products segment, and outstanding subscriber growth at our direct-to-consumer services, which added nearly 57 million subscriptions this year for a total of more than 235 million,'' Bob Chapek, CEO of Disney said in a press release. ''Our fourth quarter saw strong subscription growth with the addition of 14.6 million total subscriptions, including 12.1 million Disney+ subscribers.
The rapid growth of Disney+ in just three years since launch is a direct result of our strategic decision to invest heavily in creating incredible content and rolling out the service internationally, and we expect our DTC operating losses to narrow going forward and that Disney+ will still achieve profitability in fiscal 2024, assuming we do not see a meaningful shift in the economic climate. By realigning our costs and realizing the benefits of price increases and our Disney+ ad-supported tier coming December 8, we believe we will be on the path to achieve a profitable streaming business that will drive continued growth and generate shareholder value long into the future. And as we embark on Disney’s second century in 2023, I am filled with optimism that this iconic company’s best days still lie ahead,'' Chapek added.
Shares of Disney were little changed at the end of the day on Tuesday, down by 0.53% at $99.94 a share. The stock fell by around 9% in the after-hours trading after missing Wall Street estimates for the previous quarter. Stock performance 1 month: +7.30% 3 months: -7.61% Year-to-date: -35.50% 1 year: -42.95% Walt Disney price targets Keybanc: $143 UBS: $135 Rosenblatt: $134 JP Morgan: $145 B of A Securities: $127 Arete Research: $263 Credit Suisse: $157 Wells Fargo: $145 Goldman Sachs: $140 Walt Disney is the 50 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $182.12 billion.
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Bitcoin has dropped dramatically over the last 24 hours to its lowest level for the year after fears were sparked that major player FTX faced a liquidity crisis. In the last two years cryptocurrency has become available to large institutions and funds which has increased the overall size of the market. However, at the same time it has made it vulnerable to large liquidity events such as the one that is occurring now.
The reason for the large drop-off was the news that exchange FTX was facing serious liquidity issues after a large drop in the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies this year. Subsequently almost as an act of mercy, Binance the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange has proposed that it will buy out FTX and its subsidiaries to stabilise the market. In addition, fears over customers’ ability to withdraw their funds from accounts were abounds on Tuesday.
This is not the first-time withdrawal issues have hurt the sector with frozen accounts being an issue when Celsius was facing difficulties. This run has seen the price of Bitcoin fall sharply to its lowest levels since November 2020. The price dumped about USD 2000 as the news hit the market.
The price then bounced of the USD 17,000 level to where it now rests near in the mid USD 18,000’s. The volume sold was the highest level since June 2022. Importantly, the price continues to hold its longer term range indicating some level of strength at the USD 18,000 level.
There is still a fair bit to play out regarding this potential merger. A failed deal or an accelerated acquisition could either help or hinder the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
In recent days and weeks there have been rumours that China is beginning to consider an easing of its Covid restrictions. As virtually the last country with extreme Covid restrictions, a shift in policy from China would be a major catalyst for the global markets and economy. Whilst the CCP has not yet announced any actual easing, there are hopes that they will soon begin to ease off on some of their measures.
Health officials have stated that local governments should not “double down” on restrictions and allow people’s livelihoods and economic activity to remain normal even in the face of increasing covid cases. General activity has shown an increase in flights and covid vaccine uptake across the country which may signal a move towards ending restrictions. Impact on the markets The country is set to have one of its worst years of growth in the last 20 years as it deals with the prolonged restrictions.
The Shanghai Stock Exchange has fallen by more than 17% and the Yuan has depreciated almost 17% against the USD. This is in the wake of global inflation and recessionary pressures. A strong China is a very good thing for the global economy, especially with regards to growth economies.
Once restrictions do ease, it is expected that Chinese stocks will rally heavily. However, it is not just Chinese stocks that will receive a boost. Australian mining companies and the AUD will likely benefit as China is a large importer of Australian resources.
It may also weaken the USD as money flows back into riskier assets and away from the greenback as the general economy begins to accelerate again. Ultimately, regardless of when exactly, China decides to ease its restrictions it would be prudent to be aware of the potential ramifications as it may provide a strong boost to the equities market and on some aspects of the foreign exchange market as well.
BioNTech SE (NASDAQ:BNTX) reported its third quarter financial results on Monday. The German pharmaceutical company beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the quarter, sending the stock price higher. The company reported revenue of $3.392 billion vs. $2.024 billion expected.
EPS reported at $6.841 per share vs. $3.352 per share estimate. ''Thanks to our strong execution in the third quarter of 2022, we updated our COVID-19 vaccine revenue guidance for the year 2022 to the upper end of the original range. We started shipments of our Omicron-adapted bivalent vaccines early in September and we expect to carry on with our deliveries throughout the fourth quarter of 2022,'' Jens Holstein, CFO of BioNTech commented on the latest results. ''We believe in the potential of our COVID-19 franchise and plan to build on our leading position with ongoing innovations in this field. The power of our scientific innovation combined with our strong financial position allows us to accelerate and expand our diversified clinical pipeline and to create future growth in the interest of all stakeholders,'' Holstein concluded.
The stock was up by around 2% during the session on Monday following the latest results, trading at $155.52 a share. Stock performance 1 month: +16.38% 3 months: -7.00% Year-to-date: -38.93% 1 year: -35.10% BioNTech price targets JPMorgan: $132 Deutsche Bank: $250 HC Wainwright & Co.: $272 SVB Leerink: $224 Morgan Stanley: $194 Goldman Sachs: $206 BioNTech SE is the 411 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $38.46 billion. You can trade BioNTech SE (NASDAQ:BNTX) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: BioNTech SE, TradingView, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
The US midterm elections are coming up next week on 8 November and have the potential to have a big say on the direction and volatility of the US and global markets. All the 435 seats in the House of representatives will be decided upon. Currently, the makeup of the house includes 220 Democrats, 212 republicans and 3 vacant seats.
The senate is just as intriguing with the senate essentially split 50 – 50, with the Democrats having the support of 2 independents. This means that Vice President, Kamala Harris has the deciding opinion on bills that get put forward. It also means that the Republicans only need one more seat to take control of the senate.
This is crucial because it means if the Republicans take control, then bills put forward by Democrats will face a much tougher road to turn into law. It is also possible that the Republicans could take both the senate and the house of representatives which would make it almost impossible for the Democrats and Joe Biden to pass any legislation. Impact on the Markets When US elections occur, there tends to be a decrease in performance before the election and increase in volatility around the US markets.
After the election there is usually a period of growth for equities. The issue at the forefront of all American’s minds is still inflation and the new government will deal with it. A major impact on the economy may be the government’s ability to deal with issues surrounding the economy such as inflation, a recession, or other fiscal matters.
For instance, a gridlocked congress will restrict the President’s ability come up with policies that the Republicans will ok. The president may have to resort to using Executive orders which are more limited in scope and done without support of congress. More responsibility might be taken by the Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy to fight a potential recession without fiscal support.
This bodes well for the equities market and dampen some of the strength of the US dollar. From a more ideological perspective, Biden’s push for environmental and sustainability reform. Biden and the democrats have pushed forward policies that have supported these developments.
Therefore, money flow away from these sectors if that support gets pushed away. Ultimately, the midterm elections will likely have some effect on both the direction and volatility of the market. A swing towards the Republicans may see a shift in volatility and sentiment across the economy.