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The 8 April ceasefire announcement and parallel discussions around a 45-day truce have not resolved the Strait of Hormuz disruption. They have, for now, capped the worst-case scenario, but tanker traffic remains at a fraction of normal levels and Iran's demand for transit fees signals a structural shift, not a temporary one.
What began as a regional conflict has become a global energy shock, and the question for markets is no longer whether Hormuz was disrupted, but how permanently the disruption changes the pricing floor for oil.
Key takeaways
- Around 20 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil and petroleum products normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman, equal to about one-fifth of global oil consumption and roughly 30% of global seaborne oil trade.
- This is a flow shock, not an inventory problem. Oil markets depend on continuous throughput, not static storage.
- If the disruption persists beyond a few weeks, Brent could shift from a short-term spike to a broader price shock, with stagflation risk.
- Tanker traffic through the strait fell from around 135 ships per day to fewer than 15 at the peak of disruption, a reduction of approximately 85%, with more than 150 vessels anchored, diverted, or delayed.
- A two-week ceasefire was announced on 8 April, with 45-day truce negotiations under way. Iran has separately signalled a demand for transit fees on vessels using the strait, which, if formalised, would represent a permanent geopolitical floor on energy costs.
- Markets have begun rotating away from growth and technology exposure toward energy and defence names, reflecting a view that elevated oil is becoming a structural cost rather than a temporary risk premium.
The world’s most critical oil chokepoint
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20 million barrels per day of oil and petroleum products, equal to about 20% of global oil consumption and around 30% of global seaborne oil trade. With global oil demand near 104 million bpd and spare capacity limited, the market was already tightly balanced before the latest escalation.
The strait is also a critical corridor for liquefied natural gas. Around 290 million cubic metres of LNG transited the route each day on average in 2024, representing roughly 20% of global LNG trade, with Asian markets the main destination.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has described Hormuz as the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint, noting that even partial interruptions may trigger outsized price moves. Brent crude has moved above US$100 a barrel, reflecting both physical tightness and a rising geopolitical risk premium.
Tankers idle as flows slow
Shipping and insurance data now point to strain in real time. More than 85 large crude carriers are reported to be stranded in the Persian Gulf, while more than 150 vessels have been anchored, diverted or delayed as operators reassess safety and insurance cover. That would leave an estimated 120 million to 150 million barrels of crude sitting idle at sea.
Those volumes represent only six to seven days of normal Hormuz throughput, or a little more than one day of global oil consumption.
Updated shipping and insurance data now confirm more than 150 vessels have been anchored, diverted, or delayed, up from the 85 initially reported. The 1.3 days of global consumption coverage from idle crude remains the binding constraint: this is a flow shock, not a storage problem, and the ceasefire has not yet translated into meaningfully restored throughput.
A market built on flow, not storage
Oil markets function on continuous movement. Refineries, petrochemical plants and global supply chains are calibrated to steady deliveries along predictable sea lanes. When flows through a chokepoint that carries roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption and around 30% of global seaborne oil trade are interrupted, the system can move from equilibrium to deficit within days.
Spare production capacity, largely concentrated within OPEC, is estimated at only 3 million to 5 million bpd. That falls well short of the volumes at risk if Hormuz flows are severely disrupted.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Inflation risks and macro spillovers
The inflationary impact of an oil shock typically arrives in waves. Higher fuel and energy prices may lift headline inflation quickly as petrol, diesel and power costs move higher.
Over time, higher energy costs may pass through freight, food, manufacturing and services. If the disruption persists, the combination of elevated inflation and slower growth could raise the risk of a stagflationary environment and leave central banks facing a difficult trade-off.
No easy offset, a system with little slack
What makes the current episode particularly acute is the lack of slack in the global system.
Global supply and demand near 103 million to 104 million bpd leave little spare cushion when a chokepoint handling nearly 20 million bpd, or about one-fifth of global oil consumption, is compromised. Estimated spare capacity of 3 million to 5 million bpd, mostly within OPEC, would cover only a fraction of the volumes at risk.
Alternative routes, including pipelines that bypass Hormuz and rerouted shipping, can only partly offset lost flows, and usually at higher cost and with longer lead times.
Bottom line
Until transit through the Strait of Hormuz is restored and seen as credibly secure, global oil flows are likely to remain impaired and risk premia elevated. For investors, policymakers and corporate decision-makers, the core question is whether oil can move where it needs to go, every day, without interruption.
American manufacturer of farm machinery and industrial equipment Deere & Company (NYSE:DE) announced the latest financial results for the quarter ending January 29, 2023, before the market open in the US on Friday. Revenue was reported at $12.652 billion for the quarter (up by 32% year-over-year) vs. $11.337 billion expected. Earnings per share also topped analyst estimates at $6.55 per share vs. an estimate of $5.565 per share.
The company expects revenue of between $8.75 to $9.25 billion in the fiscal year 2023. CEO commentary ''Deere’s first-quarter performance is a reflection of favorable market fundamentals and healthy demand for our equipment as well as solid execution on the part of our employees, dealers, and suppliers to get products to our customers,'' CEO of the company, John C. May said in a press release. ''We are, at the same time, benefiting from an improved operating environment, which is contributing to higher levels of production,'' May concluded.
Stock reaction Shares of Deere were up around 5% at the market open on Friday, trading at $427.32 a share. Stock performance 1 month: -1.38% 3 months: -2.43% Year-to-date: -6.02% 1 year: +5.89% Deere & Company stock price targets Stifel: $477 Citigroup: $505 BMO Capital: $450 Wells Fargo: $485 Morgan Stanley: $522 Argus Research: $475 Credit Suisse: $582 JP Morgan: $440 UBS: $452 Deutsche Bank: $374 Goldman Sachs: $420 Citigroup: $425 Deere & Company is the 114 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $119.74 billion. You can trade Deere & Company (NYSE:DE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Deere & Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Bollinger Bands are one of the most popular indicators that FX and CFD traders use, invented in the 1980’s they are a technical analysis tool that are widely used by short and long term traders. The main uses for Bollinger Bands is determining turning points in the market at oversold and overbought levels and also as a trend following indicator. Like any technical indicator Bollinger Bands should be used with your own analysis to confirm trades and help set entry and exit levels, they are a fairly simple indicator that focuses on price and volatility only and shouldn’t, in my opinion be used in isolation.
While effective, to use them successfully you will need to be aware of the fundamentals and other technical indicators such as major support or resistance levels. How Bollinger Bands are calculated Bollinger Bands are composed of three lines. The middle line is a simple moving average (SMA), the default period being 20.
The upper and lower bands are the SMA plus or minus 2 standard deviations by default, the SMA period and Deviations can be adjusted in the settings of the indicator if desired, but the standard settings are the most popular settings among traders. When the price hits the upper band the market could be seen as “overbought” when it hits the lower band it could be seen as “oversold”, they can also be used as levels where trends are confirmed, e.g. hitting upper band could be seen as the start of a strong uptrend and vice versa. Day Trading strategies using Bollinger Bands Bollinger Bands are used mainly in two different trading styles, for contrarians looking for overbought and oversold levels to enter fade trades, or confirmation of trend for trend following systems. Both systems have their pros and cons, as with most indicators it will depend on the market “fee” for the time used, a choppy whipsawing market will see the fading system work very well, a strong trending market will see the trend following system work very well.
As with any technical system, the selection of the market to trade and being aware of the fundamentals driving the FX market at that time are critical.. Just had a Fed meeting where they surprised with a 100bp rate hike? Don’t use the fade system on USD pairs!
A good technical system I have found is useful is a mixture of both of these strategies, using the Bollinger Bands to confirm a trend, then using the fading strategy to trade pullbacks of this trend. Lets look at the example below from the AUDNZD – 5 minute chart from the 23 rd March 2023 In the above example, which is a common price action across all FX pairs, you would be using the Bolling Bands to confirm a down trend after a close below a major low. Once the possible trend is confirmed, we will be using the “overbought” level of the upper band to enter a short trade, with a take profit exit on 2 closes below the lower band, indicating the market may have gone into “oversold” territory and was time to take some money off the table.
This process would be repeated while lower highs were being made, a close above a major recent high along with a close above the upper Bollinger Band would indicate the trend may have come to an end. This can be seen on the chart below, later in the session on the same pair. At this point you would exit the short selling of the down trend and reverse to a long bias, or if your analysis on fundamentals were negative for this pair, wait for a new downtrend to form for another shorting run.
The Bollinger Squeeze Strategy Another strategy popular with FX traders is known as the Bollinger squeeze strategy. A squeeze occurs when the price has a big move, then consolidates in a tight range, this also sees the Bollinger bands go from wide to “squeeze” in a much narrower range, hence the name of the strategy. A trader would be looking for a breakout and close below or above the Bollinger bands of this squeezed range for a trade entry, see the example below from the EURUSD 5 Minute chart on 23 rd of March 2023 When the price breaks through the upper or lower band after this period of consolidation a buy or a sell signal is generated.
An initial stop is traditionally placed just above (or below in a long position) the range of the consolidation. TP rules could be similar to the previous strategy, i.e. multiple closes below the lower Bollinger Bans in the case of a short, or using the middle Bollinger Band as a trailing stop in the move is explosive and looks to continue. Summary As you can see there are multiple uses for Bollinger Bands in a FX day traders toolbox, including using them for overbought and oversold trade signals in a trending market and the Squeeze strategy where an explosive move often follows a period of consolidation.
There are also many more strategies using this indicator which I encourage you to research for yourself.
BioNTech SE (NASDAQ: BNTX) reported Q4 2022 financial results on Monday. The German pharmaceutical company reported revenue of $4.563 billion for the quarter, topping analyst estimate of $3.897 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) also beat analyst estimates at $9.876 per share vs. $8.296 EPS expected.
CEO commentary ''We made significant progress in 2022 by advancing our pipeline and launching the world’s first Omicron BA.4/BA.5 adapted bivalent COVID-19 vaccine. In addition, multiple new modalities achieved encouraging clinical data and we progressed nine new programs into clinical trials,'' said professor Ugur Sahin, M.D., CEO and Co-Founder of BioNTech said in a press release. ''As we look to 2023 and beyond, we plan to continue investing in our transformation with a focus on building commercial capabilities in oncology and working towards registrational trials. Our mid-term goal is to seek approval for multiple oncology products in cancer indications with high unmet medical need,'' he added.
The stock was down by -3.59% at market close on Tuesday at $123.19 per share. Stock performance 1 month: -5.55% 3 months: -29.76% Year-to-date: -17.72% 1 year: -25.70% BioNTech SE price targets HC Wainwright & Co.: $210 JP Morgan: $142 Goldman Sachs: $156 Morgan Stanley: $216 B of A Securities: $239 SVB Leerink: $224 Canaccord Genuity: $192 BioNTech SE is the 576 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $29.99 billion. You can trade BioNTech SE (NASDAQ: BNTX) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: BioNTech SE, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
This week, the Bank of Canada (BoC) released its decision to hold interest rates at the current level of 4.50%. In the rate statement, the BoC indicated that inflation has eased to 5.9%, and the expectation for weaker economic growth and a moderation of wage growth could see inflation continue on its downward trajectory. The BoC highlighted that it projects that CPI inflation could reach the 3% level by the middle of the year, with core inflation reaching the target level of 2% in time to come.
Following the release of the decision, the Canadian Dollar weakened, with the USDCAD trading higher to test the 1.38 round number resistance level. This move higher was compounded by the recent strength of the DXY, a result of Fed Chair Powell’s testimony where he indicated that the Federal Reserve was ready to speed up rate hikes if the data warranted. The USDCAD could continue with the uptrend to trade significantly higher toward the next key resistance level of 1.39, especially if the US Non-Farm employment change to be released on Friday is stronger than expected.
However, it is likely that the USDCAD could first retrace briefly to the 1.37 price level, which aligns with the 23.60% Fibonacci Retracement level before a continuation to the upside. This brief retracement is also supported by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as it indicates a likelihood to turn down from the overbought region.
This week, the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) y/y data was released at 6.8% (Forecast: 7.2% Previous: 7.4%) which signals a slowdown in inflation growth. In addition, the consecutive release of lower-than-expected CPI data highlights the possibility of a new trend of decreasing inflation for the Australian economy. With the view that inflation has peaked and is possibly on a downturn, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could decide to pause further rate hikes at its upcoming cash rate decision on Tuesday next week.
Keeping interest rates at 3.60% could lead to the AUDUSD trading slightly lower. The AUDUSD is currently trading between the key resistance level of 0.6765 and the support level of 0.6565, with the formation of a bearish pennant. If the AUDUSD maintains below the resistance level, look for a potential breakout to the downside, to retest the key support level of 0.6565.
This move lower could be driven by the recovery in strength on the DXY and if the RBA decides to hold interest rates at 3.60%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an inflation indicator that is closely watched by the markets and policymakers as a gauge of economic fluctuation and price stability. Generally, central banks set and adjust their monetary policy mandate in order to achieve a target level of 2-3% which would allow for moderate growth in prices. As the major economies emerge from the cloud of the Covid pandemic, the new battle is for the central banks to bring down inflation.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) began on its path of aggressive interest rate hikes in May 2022 as the Australian CPI had been climbing steadily to reach 6% by that same period. However, despite the rate hikes, inflation continued to rise to a peak of 8.4% in December 2022. This week, the Australian CPI y/y data was released at 7.4% which highlights an easing in inflation growth, potentially a lagging impact from the cumulate interest rate increases from the RBA.
Immediately following the release of the CPI data, the AUDUSD spiked down from the 0.6730 level to retest the round number key support level of 0.67. However, as the RBA has indicated that “further increases in interest rates will be needed over the months ahead to ensure that inflation returns to target”, the current slowdown in inflation growth could provide the RBA with more confidence that rate increases could lead to it achieving its target. As a result, sustained moves to the downside have been limited as the market anticipates another 25bps rate hike to come in the following week.
The AUDUSD currently trades under the 0.6780 resistance area which coincides with the 23.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Anticipating a bullish correction to the upside, as markets expect further interest rate increases, look for the price to break above the resistance level and the bearish trendline to trade higher toward the next key resistance level of 0.6870. This potential move higher is also supported by a crossover on the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).