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The 8 April ceasefire announcement and parallel discussions around a 45-day truce have not resolved the Strait of Hormuz disruption. They have, for now, capped the worst-case scenario, but tanker traffic remains at a fraction of normal levels and Iran's demand for transit fees signals a structural shift, not a temporary one.
What began as a regional conflict has become a global energy shock, and the question for markets is no longer whether Hormuz was disrupted, but how permanently the disruption changes the pricing floor for oil.
Key takeaways
- Around 20 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil and petroleum products normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman, equal to about one-fifth of global oil consumption and roughly 30% of global seaborne oil trade.
- This is a flow shock, not an inventory problem. Oil markets depend on continuous throughput, not static storage.
- If the disruption persists beyond a few weeks, Brent could shift from a short-term spike to a broader price shock, with stagflation risk.
- Tanker traffic through the strait fell from around 135 ships per day to fewer than 15 at the peak of disruption, a reduction of approximately 85%, with more than 150 vessels anchored, diverted, or delayed.
- A two-week ceasefire was announced on 8 April, with 45-day truce negotiations under way. Iran has separately signalled a demand for transit fees on vessels using the strait, which, if formalised, would represent a permanent geopolitical floor on energy costs.
- Markets have begun rotating away from growth and technology exposure toward energy and defence names, reflecting a view that elevated oil is becoming a structural cost rather than a temporary risk premium.
The world’s most critical oil chokepoint
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20 million barrels per day of oil and petroleum products, equal to about 20% of global oil consumption and around 30% of global seaborne oil trade. With global oil demand near 104 million bpd and spare capacity limited, the market was already tightly balanced before the latest escalation.
The strait is also a critical corridor for liquefied natural gas. Around 290 million cubic metres of LNG transited the route each day on average in 2024, representing roughly 20% of global LNG trade, with Asian markets the main destination.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has described Hormuz as the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint, noting that even partial interruptions may trigger outsized price moves. Brent crude has moved above US$100 a barrel, reflecting both physical tightness and a rising geopolitical risk premium.
Tankers idle as flows slow
Shipping and insurance data now point to strain in real time. More than 85 large crude carriers are reported to be stranded in the Persian Gulf, while more than 150 vessels have been anchored, diverted or delayed as operators reassess safety and insurance cover. That would leave an estimated 120 million to 150 million barrels of crude sitting idle at sea.
Those volumes represent only six to seven days of normal Hormuz throughput, or a little more than one day of global oil consumption.
Updated shipping and insurance data now confirm more than 150 vessels have been anchored, diverted, or delayed, up from the 85 initially reported. The 1.3 days of global consumption coverage from idle crude remains the binding constraint: this is a flow shock, not a storage problem, and the ceasefire has not yet translated into meaningfully restored throughput.
A market built on flow, not storage
Oil markets function on continuous movement. Refineries, petrochemical plants and global supply chains are calibrated to steady deliveries along predictable sea lanes. When flows through a chokepoint that carries roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption and around 30% of global seaborne oil trade are interrupted, the system can move from equilibrium to deficit within days.
Spare production capacity, largely concentrated within OPEC, is estimated at only 3 million to 5 million bpd. That falls well short of the volumes at risk if Hormuz flows are severely disrupted.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Inflation risks and macro spillovers
The inflationary impact of an oil shock typically arrives in waves. Higher fuel and energy prices may lift headline inflation quickly as petrol, diesel and power costs move higher.
Over time, higher energy costs may pass through freight, food, manufacturing and services. If the disruption persists, the combination of elevated inflation and slower growth could raise the risk of a stagflationary environment and leave central banks facing a difficult trade-off.
No easy offset, a system with little slack
What makes the current episode particularly acute is the lack of slack in the global system.
Global supply and demand near 103 million to 104 million bpd leave little spare cushion when a chokepoint handling nearly 20 million bpd, or about one-fifth of global oil consumption, is compromised. Estimated spare capacity of 3 million to 5 million bpd, mostly within OPEC, would cover only a fraction of the volumes at risk.
Alternative routes, including pipelines that bypass Hormuz and rerouted shipping, can only partly offset lost flows, and usually at higher cost and with longer lead times.
Bottom line
Until transit through the Strait of Hormuz is restored and seen as credibly secure, global oil flows are likely to remain impaired and risk premia elevated. For investors, policymakers and corporate decision-makers, the core question is whether oil can move where it needs to go, every day, without interruption.
It hasn’t been a good Monday morning for some investors or English travelers who wish to sell the GBP to go abroad, as the Sterling Pound has collapsed to record lows to bring almost perfect parity with the U.S Dollar at 1 GBP equals $1.09. Sterling fell to the lowest level in 37 years, trading below the $1.09 following the rate increase. The cause to fight against inflation was always going to bring unwanted consequences to countries’ currencies and economies.
The most recent example has been the effect on the GBP after the Bank of England announced a rate hike of 0.5% to lift current interest rates from 1.75% to 2.25%, the biggest since 2008. It is compounded by the U.S Dollar recent record heights, it comes as the greenback surged to a fresh 20-year high against its peers after the Federal Open Market Committee lifted its key rate by 0.75 percentage points for the third time in a row and projected further increases in borrowing costs in an effort to tame inflation. America’s strategy is different by the fact they want to keep unemployment low, at the same time of attacking inflation, this is different from the BoJ, Bank of England whose sole purpose is to keep inflation at around the 2% level.
The cost of UK government borrowing rose by the most in a single day for at least a decade, while the currency meltdown fueled speculation the Bank of England would be forced to launch an emergency rate rise to mend the UK’s battered credibility with global investors. The UK government borrowed £11.8bn last month, almost twice as much as the Treasury’s independent forecaster had expected, as high inflation pushed interest payments to an August record. Below is a snapshot of the currency at the time of writing 3:07pm on Monday 26 th of September 2022.
And they aren’t many who believe the UK’s crisis is going to improve. Big banks such as The US investment bank JPMorgan said it exposed “a broader loss of investor confidence in the government’s approach,” while Citi said the chancellor’s tax giveaway, the biggest since 1972, risked “a confidence crisis in sterling”. To conclude, it seems that the BoJ strategy in hiking interest rates its going through the rough slow growth which central bankers advised about at the Jackson Hole meeting a few weeks back and it wont be a smooth ride back up as investors are pretty spooked by the effect the hikes have had in the market and sell off of the pound has increased as the Dollar seems like a better buy given its recent rise.
Trading opportunities such as the GBP FX pairs are in focus add to this the USD who has also provided CFD traders with many opportunities the last few weeks. To create access to a Metatrader trading platform please visit us on here and activate your trading account or call us on the Melbourne office-based number 03 8566 7680. As always please do your own research and trade responsibly.
Sources: Yahoo Finance, Guardian
XAUUSD Analysis 5 – 9 June 2023 The overall outlook for gold prices is bearish in the short term. As there was a loss of buying momentum after testing the resistance area 2070, forming a Triple Top pattern on the Weekly timeframe, then there was a strong sell momentum, causing the price to fall below the price line. 1960s price line which used to be the old high when viewed from the Daily and Weekly timeframes, but nevertheless, the price is still moving in an uptrend for the medium term as the highs and lows have been established. Up when observed from the Daily time frame.
There are also no lower highs and lower lows, although the triple top pattern on the weekly timeframe suggests that the price of gold may reverse to a downward trend in the medium term. Therefore, the gold price forecast In the short term, the price may retrace to test the 1915 support area, which is where the price is expected to test before rebounding. There is still strong selling momentum from last Friday's NFP (Nonfarm Payrolls) report, giving the price a chance to move further down.
And if the price can stand on the support 1915 without falling further. Price may have a sideways correction before rallying to test the 1960 resistance again on the Daily timeframe. But if the price has a sharp drop with continuous selling momentum, it can break out the 1915 support level further down, the next important support that should be closely monitored and there is a chance that the price will fall Go to test before rebounding back up, that is 1880, which is a support level at the Daily time frame.
GBPUSD Analysis 5 – 9 June 2023 GBPUSD is bullish in the medium term after rallying to test the 1.26660 resistance to successfully form a new high on the daily timeframe before showing strong selling momentum on the Daily and Weekly timeframes. As a result, the price has continued to fall for three weeks in a row. Before breaking through the important price line that the price used to form a Double Top on the daily time frame at 1.24470, moved above the support level of 1.22700, and last week the price had strong buying momentum, resulting in an increase.
Revisiting the 1.24470 price line, which is an important level at the daily timeframe level. Forecasting that price This week the price may continue to rise. There is a high probability that the price will rise to test the resistance area that the price previously created a new high at the daily time frame level of 1.26660 again, as the price continues to move in an uptrend pattern.
Because higher Highs and Lows are made. But if the selling momentum continues to sell continuously and is very strong This will result in the price being able to break out around the 1.24470 price line and go further down to test the next support, 1.22700, which is an important support at the Daily timeframe level. EURUSD Analysis 5 – 9 June 2023 EURUSD is bullish in the medium term after rallying to test the 1.11000 resistance zone, which was the last high on the daily timeframe, but failed to make a new high and the price has strong selling momentum.
It appears clearly when looking at the closing of the sell pressure candlestick on the weekly time frame for the past four weeks. And the previous week closed in a Doji candle, indicating the market's hesitancy to continue falling or bouncing back. forecasting that price This week, the pair may face a short-term sideways trend with a high probability of a correction at the 1.07450 support area before a rebound to test the 1.11000 resistance. Again, as the price continues to move in an uptrend pattern, higher lows have been formed, although the high has yet to rise beyond the 1.11000 price line.
But if the selling momentum continues to sell continuously and is very strong This will result in the price being able to break out at the 1.07450 support level and continue down to test the next support, 1.05250, which is an important support at the daily timeframe level that should be watched.
XAUUSD Analysis 29 May – 02 June 2023 Forecasting the price of gold in the short term, the price may move down to test the 1915 support area, which is the area where the price is expected to bounce back. and if the price can stand without falling further Price may have a sideways correction before rallying to test the 1960 resistance again on the Daily timeframe. But if the price has a sharp drop with continuous selling momentum, it can break out the 1915 support level further down, the next important support that should be closely monitored and there is a chance that the price will be good Rebound, that is 1880, which is the support level at the Daily time frame. However, most investors keep an eye on the Non-Farm Payrolls (Nonfarm Payrolls) report and the unemployment rate report. (Unemployment Rate) on Friday, June 2, this coming.
This will directly affect the direction of gold prices. GBPUSD Analysis 29 May – 02 June 2023 GBPUSD is bearish in the short term after rallying to test the 1.26660 resistance to successfully form a new high on the daily timeframe before showing strong selling momentum on the Daily and Weekly timeframes. As a result, the price continued to fall for three weeks in a row before breaking through the key price that previously formed a double top on the daily timeframe 1.24470, moving above 1.22700 support.
Forecasting that price This week, the price may move slightly further. There is a high probability that the price will drop to test the support area of 1.22700 before a correction sideways. To bounce back up to retest the important price line 1.24470 as the price continues to move in an uptrend pattern.
But if the selling momentum continues to sell continuously and is very strong As a result, the price can break out at the support level of 1.22700 and go down further to test the next support, 1.18080, which is an important support level on the Daily time frame. However, most investors keep an eye on the Non-Farm Payrolls (Nonfarm Payrolls) report and the unemployment rate report. (Unemployment Rate) on Friday, June 2, this coming. This will have a direct effect on the GBPUSD price direction.
EURUSD Analysis 29 May – 02 June 2023 EURUSD has a short-term bearish view after rallying to test the 1.11000 resistance zone, which was the last high on the daily timeframe, but failed to make a new high and the price has strong selling momentum. It appears clearly when looking at the closing of the sell pressure candle on the weekly timeframe for the past three weeks. Forecasting that price This week, the pair may face a sideways trend with a high probability of a correction at the 1.07450 support area before a rebound to retest the 1.11000 resistance as the price continues to move in an uptrend pattern.
But if the selling momentum continues to sell continuously and is very strong This will result in the price being able to break out at the 1.07450 support area and go further down to test the next support, 1.05250, which is an important support at the daily timeframe level. However, most investors keep an eye on the Non-Farm Payrolls (Nonfarm Payrolls) report and the unemployment rate report. (Unemployment Rate) on Friday, June 2, this coming. This will have a direct effect on the EURUSD price direction.
XAUUSD Analysis 22 – 26 May 2023 The gold price outlook is generally positive in the medium term. Although the close of last week's sell pressure bar indicates a significant loss of buying momentum, due to the sell-off during the week but the price is still moving above the 1960 support. After the adjustment has come down to test, the adjustment has ejected up.
There is a very high probability that the price will continue to move or sideways above the 1960 support and there is a possibility of further rally to test the 2000 resistance which is a key resistance on the Weekly timeframe level. forecasting the price of gold in the short term, the price may move back down to test the 1960 support and if it manages to hold on without further deflection, there may be a sideways correction before rising to test the resistance. 2000 again in the medium term on the daily timeframe level, but if the price has a sharp decline with continuous selling momentum, it can break out the 1960 support level and continue down to the next important support at Should be closely monitored is 1880, which is a support level on the daily timeframe. GBPUSD Analysis 22 – 26 May 2023 GBPUSD is bearish after rallying to test the 1.26660 resistance to successfully form a new high on the Daily timeframe, before strong selling momentum emerges on the Daily and Weekly timeframes. Currently, the price has dropped to support 1.24470, which is an important level to watch.
Because the former price used to form a Double Top pattern on the daily timeframe level. forecasting that price This week, the price may have sideways at the 1.24470 area before plunging further. There is a high probability that the price will test the support area of 1.22700 before a correction. But if the selling momentum continues to sell continuously and is very strong This will result in the price being able to break out at the 1.22700 support area and go further down to test the next support, 1.18080, which is an important support at the Daily timeframe level.
GBPUSD Analysis 22 – 26 May 2023 GBPUSD is bearish after rallying to test the 1.26660 resistance to successfully form a new high on the Daily timeframe, before strong selling momentum emerges on the Daily and Weekly timeframes. Currently, the price has dropped to support 1.24470, which is an important level to watch. Because the former price used to form a Double Top pattern on the daily timeframe level. forecasting that price This week, the price may have sideways at the 1.24470 area before plunging further.
There is a high probability that the price will test the support area of 1.22700 before a correction. But if the selling momentum continues to sell continuously and is very strong This will result in the price being able to break out at the 1.22700 support area and go further down to test the next support, 1.18080, which is an important support at the Daily timeframe level.
XAUUSD Analysis 8 – 12 May 2023 The gold price outlook is generally positive in the medium term. Although the close of last week's sell pressure bar indicates a significant loss of buying momentum, due to the sell-off during the week but the price is still moving above the 2000 support level after a rebound to test and then rebound. It is very likely that the price will continue to move or sideways above the 2000 support and there is a chance to rise further to test the 2070 resistance which is a key resistance on the timeframe level.
Weekly and is the price that gold used to do the most in history. Forecasting the price of gold In the short term, the price may move down to test the 2000 support again and if it can hold on without falling further, it may have a sideways correction before rising to test the resistance. 2070 again in the medium term on the daily timeframe level, but if the price moves sharply down with continuous selling momentum, it can break out the 2000 support level and continue down to the next important support at 2070. Should be closely monitored is 1960, which is a support level on the daily timeframe.
GBPUSD Analysis 15 – 19 May 2023 GBPUSD is bearish after rallying to test the 1.26660 resistance to successfully form a new high on the Daily timeframe, before strong selling momentum emerges on the Daily and Weekly timeframes. Currently, the price has dropped to support 1.24470, which is an important level to watch. Because the former price used to form a Double Top pattern on the daily timeframe level. forecasting that price This week, the price may have sideways at the 1.24470 area before plunging further.
There is a high probability that the price will test the support area of 1.22700 before a correction. But if the selling momentum continues to sell continuously and is very strong This will result in the price being able to break out at the 1.22700 support area and go further down to test the next support, 1.18080, which is an important support at the Daily timeframe level. EURUSD Analysis 15 – 19 May 2023 EURUSD has a bearish view after rallying to test the 1.11000 resistance zone, which was the last high on the daily timeframe level, but failed to make a new high and strong selling momentum is evident.
Looking at the close of the candlestick, selling pressure on the Weekly time frame last week indicates a strong sell-off in the market. forecasting that price This week the price will continue to decline. There is a high probability that the price will rebound to test the support area of 1.07450 before a correction. But if the selling momentum continues to sell continuously and is very strong This will result in the price being able to break out at the 1.07450 support area and go further down to test the next support, 1.05250, which is an important support at the daily timeframe level.
Australian’s weak inflation report this week has set the tone for the RBA’s Rate Statement next Tuesday. The underlying inflation reading remains well below the RBA’s target 2-3% for the 11th consecutive quarter. There is no doubt that the Australian inflationary outlook remains feeble.
Some cyclical and structural headwinds are preventing wages and other inflationary pressures to climb higher. Even though the economy is on its 27 th year without a recession, the Australian economy is trapped with very high household debt. A subdued wage growth and high household debt are putting a squeeze on consumer spending.
It is hard to see consumer spending continue to stay strong in the upcoming quarters. There are some bright spots such as net exports, public spending and capital expenditure that are relatively solid to stimulate the economy but there are no signs of significant inflationary pressures from leading indicators across categories in the near-term for the RBA to increase interest rate. “Patience is the key here.” Unemployment rate is coming down gradually and will eventually push wages higher at some point. Therefore, even though the CPI figures were disappointing, it is too early to speculate about a rate cut or any changes for that matter.
The RBA was expecting both headline and underlying inflation to undershoot under their target range. We therefore expect the RBA to maintain its usual stance on inflationary outlook and keep interest rate on hold.