With the S&P 500 supported by strong earnings expectations, artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure spending and mega-cap technology momentum, traders are watching more than the headline result. The key signals come from guidance, margins, capital expenditure (capex) and the market reaction after results land.

Use this guide to follow the themes, companies and cross-market signals shaping the reporting season.

Start here, choose your earnings lens

Not every trader watches earnings the same way. Before opening the calendar, choose the lens that best matches what you are tracking.

The big picture

Earnings expectations are high.

According to FactSet, the S&P 500 is expected to report year-on-year (YoY) earnings growth of 23.3% for Q2 2026. If achieved, it would mark a second consecutive quarter of earnings growth above 20% for the index.

That puts pressure on companies to do more than beat estimates. They need to justify the expectations already reflected in prices.

A strong result with cautious guidance can still pressure a stock. A softer headline result with better forward commentary may still support sentiment.

That is why earnings season is not only about the numbers. It is about the reaction.

The companies traders are watching

The focus is not only on the biggest names in US markets. It is on the companies that help shape expectations across finance, AI, energy demand, consumer spending and the economic cycle.

To keep the watchlist clear, the companies the GO Markets Editorial Desk will be tracking are grouped into four themes.

Banks can set the early tone for earnings season. Their results give traders a read on credit conditions, consumer resilience, deal activity and the strength of financial markets.

Key areas include net interest margins, loan-loss provisions, lending demand, credit card trends, trading revenue and investment banking activity.

Energy and physical infrastructure companies provide a different read on market conditions. Their results show how commodity prices, power demand, industrial activity and capex are flowing through the real economy.

Key areas include production costs, energy demand, infrastructure spending, order backlogs, cash flow and margins.

AI infrastructure remains one of the most watched themes in US markets. The central question is whether demand for chips, cloud capacity and data centre infrastructure is still supporting earnings momentum.

Key areas include AI chip demand, cloud revenue, data centre orders, supply conditions, gross margins, capex and forward guidance.

This group sits at the intersection of AI investment, consumer behaviour and platform monetisation. Their results show whether AI spending is moving from infrastructure build-out into commercial use cases.

Key areas include advertising demand, user growth, AI product integration, cloud demand, consumer spending, margins and free cash flow.

Where earnings can move markets

Bottom line

Macro context

The Federal Reserve maintains its target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. Following the June meeting, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh modified central bank communications by removing traditional forward guidance in favour of pure data dependence.

Inflation remains a key focus. The all items Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 4.2% over the year to May 2026, marking the largest 12-month increase since April 2023. Brent crude has since retreated to the low US$70s per barrel as at 1 July 2026, after recent easing in Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions.

Geopolitical risk remains a potential source of renewed volatility, but the current oil price backdrop does not support describing Brent as above US$100. Market participants enter July assessing whether softer economic data could justify interest rate reductions later in the year, or whether sticky services inflation and tariff-related cost pressures may require a restrictive stance for longer.

Growth, business activity and demand

Economic activity indicators continue to show a divergent picture across sectors. Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annualised rate of 2.1% in the first quarter of 2026, according to the third estimate from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

While the headline figure points to continued expansion, secondary market indicators continue to suggest pressure on corporate margins. Increased overheads from trade tariffs and structural transport bottlenecks may be affecting forward-looking factory order books as corporate expansion cools.

Labour, payrolls and employment data

The domestic employment sector remains balanced within a low-hire, low-fire structural state. Higher net financing expenses are gradually cooling corporate recruitment pipelines, keeping payroll expansions within a contained band.

Inflation, CPI, PPI and PCE

Inflation trends remain a primary source of volatility across financial markets. Energy costs, secondary passthrough from recent tariffs and sticky core services pricing continue to test the central bank’s mandate.

Policy, trade and geopolitics

Trade policy frameworks continue to create uncertainty for corporate supply chains. The temporary 10% blanket tariff authorised under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 faces a scheduled expiry on 24 July.

The tariff outlook is also subject to legal uncertainty. On 7 May 2026, the US Court of International Trade ruled that the administration exceeded its authority in imposing the Section 122 surcharge. The ruling does not automatically remove tariff exposure for all importers while the matter proceeds through appeal, but it adds legal risk to the scheduled expiry or replacement point.

Market participants are assessing whether these short-term surcharges may end, be replaced or transition into another policy framework. Any change could materially affect corporate input cost models, supply chain planning and margin expectations.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% in June, while the Bank of Japan (BOJ) adjusted policy higher in June as inflation risks and Middle East-driven price pressures remained in focus. China’s push for technological self-reliance under the 15th Five-Year Plan continues to reshape regional commodity demand and trade flows.

For traders, the key question is how these regional drivers may flow through currencies, commodities, indices and risk sentiment in the weeks ahead.

China, industrial upgrading stays in focus

Chinese policymakers remain focused on the 15th Five-Year Plan, which runs from 2026 to 2030. The plan prioritises industrial upgrading, technological self-reliance and high-quality growth.

The key question for markets is whether China’s policy support can stabilise demand while the economy continues to shift away from the rapid expansion model of previous decades.

Japan, BOJ guidance takes centre stage

The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its 15 and 16 June meeting, taking policy settings to their highest level since September 1995.

The yen remains sensitive to further policy and intervention signals, with USD/JPY trading around levels that have previously drawn attention from Japanese authorities. Markets are now watching whether the BOJ confirms a gradual tightening path or signals a more cautious approach.

Australia, inflation remains the domestic test

Australia enters July with markets focused on whether inflation is proving sticky enough to keep the RBA cautious.

The RBA left the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% at its 16 June meeting, after three earlier rate increases in 2026. The next RBA decision is due on 10 and 11 August.