市场资讯及洞察
4月8日宣布的停火以及围绕45天休战的平行讨论并未解决霍尔木兹海峡的混乱问题。目前，他们已经限制了最坏的情况，但油轮运输量仍处于正常水平的一小部分，伊朗对过境费的需求预示着结构性转变，而不是暂时的转变。
最初的地区冲突已成为全球能源冲击，市场面临的问题不再是霍尔木兹是否受到干扰，而是这种混乱对石油的最低定价产生了多大的永久性影响。
关键要点
- 每天约有2000万桶（桶）的石油和石油产品通常通过伊朗和阿曼之间的霍尔木兹海峡，相当于全球石油消费量的约五分之一，约占全球海运石油贸易的30％。
- 这是流量冲击，不是库存问题。石油市场依赖于持续的吞吐量，而不是静态存储。
- 如果中断持续超过几周，布伦特原油可能会从短期飙升转向更广泛的价格冲击，存在滞胀风险。
- 穿越海峡的油轮运输量从每天约135艘下降到中断高峰期的不到15艘船只，减少了约85％，超过150艘船只停泊、改道或延误。
- 4月8日宣布了为期两周的停火，为期45天的休战谈判正在进行之中。伊朗已分别表示要求对使用该海峡的船只收取过境费，如果正式确定，这将是能源成本的永久地缘政治最低标准。
- 市场已经开始从增长和技术敞口转向能源和国防企业，这反映了人们的观点，即石油价格上涨正在成为结构性成本，而不是暂时的风险溢价。
世界上最关键的石油阻塞点
霍尔木兹海峡每天处理大约2000万桶石油和石油产品，相当于全球石油消费量的20％和全球海运石油贸易的30％左右。由于全球石油需求接近1.04亿桶/日，且剩余产能有限，在最近的升级之前，市场已经处于紧密平衡状态。
该海峡也是液化天然气的重要走廊。2024年，平均每天约有2.9亿立方米的液化天然气通过该路线，约占全球液化天然气贸易的20％，亚洲市场是主要目的地。
国际能源署（IEA）将霍尔木兹描述为世界上最重要的石油运输阻塞点，并指出，即使是部分中断也可能引发价格的大幅波动。布伦特原油已跌破每桶100美元，这既反映了物质紧张，也反映了地缘政治风险溢价的上升。
由于流量减慢，油轮处于空转状态
现在，航运和保险数据实时显示压力。据报道，超过85艘大型原油运输船滞留在波斯湾，而由于运营商重新评估安全和保险，有150多艘船舶停泊、改道或延误。据估计，这将使1.2亿至1.5亿桶原油在海上闲置。
这些量仅代表霍尔木兹正常吞吐量的六到七天，或略高于一天的全球石油消费。
最新的航运和保险数据现在证实，有150多艘船只停泊、改道或延误，高于最初报告的85艘船只。闲置原油的1.3天全球消费保障仍然是约束性制约因素：这是流量冲击，不是储存问题，停火尚未转化为产量的实质性恢复。
建立在流量而不是存储基础上的市场
石油市场在持续波动中运作。炼油厂、石化厂和全球供应链经过调整，可以沿着可预测的海道稳定交付。当流经占全球石油消耗量约五分之一和全球海运石油贸易约30％的阻塞点时，该系统可以在几天之内从平衡变为赤字。
剩余产能主要集中在欧佩克内，估计仅为每天300万至500万桶。这远低于霍尔木兹水流受到严重干扰时面临的风险交易量。
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
通货膨胀风险和宏观溢出效应
石油冲击的通货膨胀影响通常以波浪形式出现。随着汽油、柴油和电力成本的上涨，燃料和能源价格的上涨可能会迅速提振总体通货膨胀。
随着时间的推移，更高的能源成本可能会流向货运、食品、制造业和服务业。如果混乱持续下去，通货膨胀率上升和增长放缓相结合，可能会增加滞胀环境的风险，使中央银行面临艰难的权衡。
不容易抵消，系统几乎没有松弛
当前局势之所以特别严重，是因为全球体系缺乏松弛。
当处理近2,000万桶/日（约占全球石油消耗量的五分之一）的阻塞点受到损害时，将近1.03亿至1.04亿桶的全球供需几乎没有备用缓冲。估计每天300万至500万桶的剩余产能，主要在欧佩克内部，只能覆盖风险产量的一小部分。
替代路线，包括绕过霍尔木兹的管道和改道运输，只能部分抵消流量的损失，而且通常成本更高，交货时间更长。
底线
在霍尔木兹海峡的过境恢复并被视为可靠安全之前，全球石油流动可能继续受损，风险溢价上升。对于投资者、政策制定者和企业决策者来说，核心问题是石油能否每天不间断地转移到需要去的地方。
热门话题
去年，A股和港股市场一路下跌，恒生科技股指数全年下跌8.83%。虽然很多国内的基金经理南下抄底，甚至很多公司连续十几次回购股票，但凄凄惨惨戚戚，例如美团股票直接腰斩。很多进入港股市场的投资者一脸懵，只感觉被全世界抛弃了。香港经济衰退，或战略地位下降，使得港股估值持续走弱，出现价值投资机会。小米股价就是很好的案例。2023年，小米手机14系列发布后，国内销量在12月超越苹果，排行第一。海外市场业务也发展迅猛，手机销量逆势增长， 2023年股价逆势上涨超过40%。
小米公布造车之后，市场曾经一度充满期待。发布会当天小米股价创出高点。但很快，众目期待的小米新能源汽车无法给出真实定价，雷老板不断暗示售价要高一点，咱造车搞的质量不错，导致购买者很失落，毕竟咱小米主打的就是不赚钱，要低价也要质量，没有了低价承诺，小米股价在一个月内下跌了20%。
投资的本质，是一个企业家选择另一个企业家的故事。雷军在2004年就实现了财务自由，在2007年金山软件公司上市。同时，iPhone打破了传统手机的认知，雷老板认为他应该做一些更有意义的事情，迅速把创业定位在手机领域，向诺基亚，三星以及遍地国产山寨手机发起挑战。2010年小米手机成立，用互联网+资本思维进入市场，不看中盈利利润比例，追求粉丝私域体验和用户规模，成功吸引了大量米粉，一举突围成功。小米手机仅用3年时间，做到了中国手机出货量第一。并在2018年成功在HK上市。早起投资小米的风投晨兴资本，获利近1000倍，由500万美金，变成50亿美金，后期追加资金1.5亿美金，目前市值达到100亿美金。到了2021年1月，中美贸易战直接导致小米被列为美国黑名单，小米进入“黑暗时刻”，股价当天暴跌800亿港币。由此，小米决定进军新能源电动车，以防手机行业出现非常规打击。雷老板曾经说过，一家优秀的企业，要一直跟着风走。我不知道这个逻辑对不对，但是每个企业家性格不同，风口杀出一片天，是小米这家企业的能力。
进入到2024年3月25日，中国小米汽车59家首批门店于正式开业，很多门店异常火爆，大家都想看看小米的车造的怎么样。小米SU7目前内饰、价格等信息还处于保密之中，将于2024年3月28日中国时间19点发布会揭晓。所有人最关心的，还是价格，毕竟雷军曾经说过，19.9万也是开玩笑的价格，定价会有点贵，言外之意就是可能奔向30-40万人民币一台。而这个价格，并不是米粉的核心需求价格，米粉的接受上限大约在20万人民币。并且，雷军就像个谈判的老油条一样，说：“小米SU7是一辆50万以内最好看、最好开、最智能的轿车。”拉高大家的价格预期，不排除发布会直接降价。因此，这几天小米股价也比较稳定，静待发布会开启。
对于小米的第一款车，必须保证在销量上打赢。目前中国电动车卷到不行，比亚迪秦等系列，以及极氪的产品，都具竞争力。很多人最后等的就是价格。作为入局造车的新玩家，小米汽车第一台车，由3400名工程师，花费100亿元造出来。小米目前现金储备1360亿元人民币，能烧5年没问题。小米集团3月最新发布的2023年财报，净利润达193亿元，同比增长126.3%。手机业务做得好，大家可以关注一下小米发布会，造车业务能不能给小米再带来一个200亿收入，让股价翻倍，我们拭目以待。
免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Jacky Wang | GO Markets 亚洲投研部主管
热门话题
上周作为央行大周，市场经历了国际货币大幅波动。澳联储维持现有利率，日本央行跳出负利率时代，美联储维持现有利率但鲍威尔重申今年降息次数不变，英国央行维持现有利率不变，瑞士央行打响西方国家降息第一枪，综合央行消息影响后，美元被强势推高，目前已经重回104大关。这和年初预判的有些许不同，因为原来的节奏是西方国家将被迫跟随美联储步伐转变货币政策，在美国未降息的前提下是很难早于美国降息的，这将导致本国流动资金的严重问题，特别是国际资金的撤离，那么势必存在一个时间差，就是美联储降息时其他主要西方国家还未降息，这能导致美元的阶段性回落，虽然不可能回到美联储加息时候的98位置，但冲击100平台似乎不是问题。而现在瑞士打响了降息第一枪，当然跟瑞士长期以来是欧洲避险资金天堂的因素有关，而瑞士也主要都是用购买国际对冲资产作为回报，根本不担心降息后本国没有资本涌入，那么诸如澳洲，加拿大已经其他欧洲国家敢跟随瑞士的步伐吗?或许可能性非常低。
另外上周英伟达GTC大会似乎不温不火，在未能带飞整个AI板块的情况下，英伟达自己默默涨超了7%，股价再度逼近新高，也让之前担心英伟达股价崩盘的声音销声匿迹。AMD依然受困于管理层抛盘，AI应用层大部分股票依然处于回调中。上周新上市了几个相关题材的股票后续值得关注，ALAB以远高于目标价的$36美金IPO成功上市，三个交易日股价收稳$70美金接近翻倍，相信其“小英伟达”的称号并非空穴来风，而AI板块也依然是大牛板块，前途无量。
本周市场又迎来诸多重要金融消息，周三澳洲将公布2月CPI数据，预期将反弹3.6%超过前值3.4%，这或许会对澳联储的利率政策产生影响，但上周澳联储主席布洛克说澳洲并未排除加息可能更可能是起个警告作用，澳洲更大可能是紧跟美联储步伐调整利率政策，暂未拥有可以主动出击的能力。澳联储指定可以降息的目标区间在2%至3%，如此大的区间也让澳洲更加可以游刃有余去追随美联储的动向。周四美国将公布四季度GDP年化季率终值，预期维持3.2%的增速跟前值一致。目前市场最担心的就是美国能否实现经济软着陆而避免衰退，那么GDP将是验证经济是否衰退的试金石，若美国这样的发达国家都能维持3.2%的GDP增长，美联储大可以不着急降息，等待高息下通胀进一步回落至目标区间才开始降息，但其他西方国家或许难以坚持，鲍威尔也多次重申美联储并非一定要等到通胀回落到2%才开始加息，2%只是最终目标区间，利率政策有其滞后性，当各项数据能够显示美国的通胀正在有效可控向着2%运行时，美联储可以提早开始降息。这也是鲍威尔给自己铺好的台阶，因为美国目前的情况根本不可能在今年就让通胀回落到2%，但降息已经在所难免了。周四的GDP若能维持前值，那么对美国经济和市场的信心是一个很好的促进，股指也有望继续冲高。周五晚间美国将公布美联储最为关注的2月核心PCE物价指数，年率2.8%的预测值跟前值保持一致，如果能符合预期，也预示着美国通胀相对稳定并没有从源头反弹，这也是美联储后续政策的重要参考数据。
新的一周将是三月的最后一周，也是2024年一季度的最后一周，美股三大股指已经均创新高，从去年十月底开始的上涨至今依然强势，但舆论未曾提及牛市，罗素2000小盘股指数距离前高还较为遥远，依靠板块龙头拉动的股指并不健康，股指统计结构处于畸形状态，纳指7巨头市值占比过半，什么时候小盘股实现普涨了，罗素2000上新高了，相信牛市也就真正到来了，但罗素2000要上新高目前看依然是希望渺茫。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 高级分析师
American supermarket chain Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) announced the latest earnings results before the opening bell on Wall Street on Tuesday. Target reported revenue of $31.919 billion for the previous quarter vs. $31.827 billion expected. Earnings per share (EPS) also topped estimates at $2.98 vs. $2.416 per share expected.
Revenue and EPS increased by 1.6% and 57.67% year-over-year respectively. The company achieved full-year revenue of $105.803 billion in 2023, down from $107.588 billion in 2022. Company overview Founded: June 24, 1902 Headquarters: Target Plaza Minneapolis, Minnesota, United States Number of employees: 440,000 (2023) Industry: Retail Key people: Brian Cornell (Chairman & CEO) CEO commentary Target CEO, Brian Cornell had this to say to investors: "Our team's efforts changed the momentum of our business, further improving our sales and traffic trends in the fourth quarter while driving profitability well ahead of expectations." "Throughout the season, guests responded to newness, value, and the inspiration and ease of our in-store and digital shopping experience.
Looking ahead, we'll continue to invest in the strengths and differentiators that have delivered strong financial performance over time. We'll also roll out fresh innovations, including our new Target Circle membership program, as part of our roadmap for growth aimed at meeting consumers where they are, reigniting sales, traffic and market share gains, and positioning Target for profitable growth in 2024 and beyond," Cornell added. Stock reaction The stock rallied by over 11% after the latest financial results were announced, trading at $168.20 a share – the highest level since April 2023.
Stock performance 5 day: +10.37% 1 month: +16.15% 3 months: +26.24% Year-to-date: +17.79% 1 year: +3.03% Target stock price targets JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $157 Telsey Advisory Group: $160 Oppenheimer: $170 Wells Fargo & Company: $165 Stifel Nicolaus: $153 Gordan Haskett: $170 Morgan Stanley: $165 TD Cowen: $148 BMO Capital Markets: $130 Royal Bank of Canada: $157 Citigroup: $142 Jefferies Financial Group: $135 Tigress Financial: $180 Evercore ISI: $130 Bank of America: $135 Target Corporation is the 215 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $77.39 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Target Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
American customer relationship management company Salesforce Inc. (NYSE: CRM) released the latest financial results after the closing bell on Wall Street on Wednedsay. Salesforce achieved revenue of $9.287 billio for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024 vs. $9.223 billion expected. Revenue increased by 11% from the same period the year before.
Earnings per share (EPS) also topped analyst estimates at $2.29 vs. $2.27 per share estimate. EPS grew by 36.30% year-over-year. Full fiscal 2024 revenue grew by 11% to $34.9 billion.
The company expects revenue of between $37.7 to $38 billion for current fiscal year, which is below analyst estimate of $38.61 billion. Company overview Founded: February 3, 1999 Headquarters: Salesforce Tower, San Francisco, California, United States Number of employees: 79,390 (2023) Industry: Cloud computing, Enterprise software, Consulting Key people: Marc Benioff (Chairman & CEO) CEO commentary Marc Benioff, CEO of Salesforce had this to say to shareholders following the latest earning call: "It's been a phenomenal year of transformation for Salesforce with strong performance across all our key metrics, including record cash flow and margin growth. Our total remaining performance obligation ended the fourth quarter at $56.9 billion, an increase of 17% year-over-year.
We’re also thrilled to initiate our first-ever Salesforce dividend and increase our share buyback plan by $10 billion." "With our trusted, unified Einstein 1 Platform, we’re incredibly well positioned to build on our success and capitalize on the massive surge in tech spending expected over the coming years, delivering an unprecedented level of intelligence to our customers as AI transforms every company and industry," Benioff concluded. Stock reaction The stock was flat at the end of Wednesday’s trading session, ending the day at $299.77 a share. Shares fell by around 4% in after-hours trading despite earnings beat on future guidance.
Stock performance 5 day: +5.45% 1 month: +6.37% 3 months: +29.80% Year-to-date: +13.63% 1 year: +78.66% Salesforce stock price targets Piper Sandler: $285 Citigroup: $325 Stifel Nicolaus: $330 Wells Fargo & Company: $290 UBS Group: $310 Oppenheimer: $325 Robert W. Baird: $310 JMP Securities: $293 Morgan Stanley: $350 Wolfe Research: $315 Argus: $290 Bank of America: $300 Salesforce Inc. is the 33 rd largest company in the world with a market cap of $289.58 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Salesforce Inc. (NYSE: CRM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Salesforce Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL) announced the latest financial results for Q3 of fiscal 2024 after the market close on Monday. The US software and hardware manufacturer did not disappoint investors as both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) topped estimates. The company achieved revenue of $13.3 billion for the previous quarter vs. $13.286 billion expected.
Revenue grew by 7% year-over-year. EPS reached $1.41 vs. $1.377 per share expected. EPS was up by 16% vs. the same period the year before.
Oracle announced a quarterly dividend of $0.40 a share. Company overview Founded: 1977 Headquarters: Austin, Texas, United States Number of employees: 164,000 (2023) Industry: Enterprise software, business software, cloud computing, computer hardware, consulting Key people: Larry Ellison (Executive Chairman & CTO), Jeff Henley (Vice Chairman), Safra Catz (CEO) CEO commentary Safra Catz, CEO of Oracle had this to say to investors following the latest results: “Large new cloud infrastructure contracts signed in Q3 drove Oracle's total Remaining Performance Obligations up 29% to over $80 billion—an all-time record.” “We expect to continue receiving large contracts reserving cloud infrastructure capacity because the demand for our Gen2 AI infrastructure substantially exceeds supply—despite the fact we are opening new and expanding existing cloud datacenters very, very rapidly. We expect that 43% of our current $80 billion of Remaining Performance Obligations will be recognized as revenue over the next four quarters, and that our Gen2 Cloud Infrastructure business will remain in a hypergrowth phase—up 53% in Q3—for the foreseeable future,” Catz concluded.
Stock reaction Shares were up by 1.52% at the end of trading session on Monday at $114.13 a share. The stock rose by over 9% in the after-hours trading. Stock performance 5 day: +0.06% 1 month: -1.48% 3 months: -0.87% Year-to-date: +8.25% 1 year: +34.38% Oracle stock price targets Piper Sandler: $122 BMO Capital Markets: $126 UBS Group: $125 Wolfe Research: $130 Evercore ISI: $130 Morgan Stanley: $105 Guggenheim: $150 Berenberg Bank: $110 Mizuho: $150 HSBC: $144 DZ Bank: $125 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $100 DA Davidson: $104 Barclays: $147 Oracle Corporation is the 31 st largest company in the world with a market cap of $313.73 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to “Trading” then select “Share CFDs”. GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Oracle Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO) has had a terrible start to 2024 with the stock plummeting by over 35% year-to-date. On 23/2/24, JP Morgan Chase & Co. downgraded its price target for NIO from $8.50 to $5 a share, citing "weakness to the company's slow sales in January and investor concern on the company's sales and earnings momentum in 2024." On Friday, the Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer released the latest delivery data for February. The company delivered a total of 8,132 cars last month, down from 12,157 deliveries in February 2022.
NIO has delivered 467,781 vehicles in total as of 29/2/24. The EV maker will announce the latest financial results for Q4 2023 before the US market open on 5/3/24. Company overview Founded: November 2014 Headquarters: Shanghai, China Number of employees: 20,000+ (2023) Industry: Automotive Key people: William Li (CEO), Lihong Qin (President), Wei Feng (CFO) Stock reaction The stock was up by 0.52% at the end of Friday’s session at $5.78 a share.
Stock performance 5 day: +7.69% 1 month: +4.96% 3 months: -18.67% Year-to-date: -35.89% 1 year: -39.24% NIO stock price targets Mizuho: $15 Deutsche Bank: $16 CLSA: $14 Sanford C. Bernstein: $8 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $5 Citigroup: $19.20 UBS Group: $15 Nomura: $7.50 Barclays: $8 Morgan Stanley: $12 NIO Inc. is the 1395 th largest and 4 th largest electric vehicle company in the world with a market cap of $12.09 billion. You can trade NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: NIO Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap