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铁矿石跌破100美元关键价格,澳元未来蒙上阴影

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在澳洲的朋友们都知道,澳洲所有的出口商品中,铁矿石是价值最高的货物。而在过去将近20年的时间里,中国毫无疑问就是澳洲最大的铁矿石买家。靠着中国2000后加入世贸的城镇化建设,大量的钢材以及生产钢材所需要的铁矿石成为了基础建设的必备条件。而放眼全世界,世界上最大的三个铁矿石公司,有两个都在澳洲。对比巴西淡水谷铁矿石产区,西澳在运输距离上有着绝对的优势。而最近,正当澳洲的矿业分析师们还在纷纷猜测,在中国目前疲软的房地产走势,以及缺少政策扶植的情况下,澳洲铁矿石是否还能保持在100美元一吨的价格时,在本周一,澳洲铁矿石真的就跌破了100美元大关。

这也是铁矿石价格在过去2周时间里第四次跌破100美元的关键支撑位。对比今年1月的140附近价格,跌幅达到了30%。而新加坡交易的铁矿石期货价格也在本周一下跌1.7%,跌倒99.4美元一吨。疲软的铁矿石价格也导致澳洲三大矿业公司必和必拓,力拓和FMG的股价再次下跌。从今年初到现在,它们的股价已经累计下跌了15%。但是澳洲本地分析师预测,由于主要铁矿石需求国家目前的制造业依然没有起色,因此很有可能铁矿石未来的价格将会继续下跌。这将会导致连锁反应。根据澳洲西太银行大宗商品分析师的预测,澳洲铁矿石价格在未来6-12个月的时间内有很大可能会达到80美元附近的价格。并且整个市场的活跃度正在进一步下跌,成交量也在减少,这基本意味着行业冬季不但没有结束,实际上可能才刚开始。

可是由于之前欧美股市的过度火爆,导致了市场的投资者在大宗商品价格上也有点上头,而忽略了基本情况:就是铁矿石的供求关系中,目前需求量正在持续减少。那这时如果生产商没有减产,依然生产一样数量的铁矿石,那毫无疑问,就意味着价格将会持续下降。直到有一些小的生产商扛不住停产。在澳洲,各大矿产商的生产成本相差很大,纯的一吨铁矿石在提炼之前的成本从15美元到70美元不等,但是如果加上铁路运输,提炼,装船和海运,最终到目的地的价格一般还要加上10-30美元一吨。这意味着对于大量的中小矿产商来说,100美元一吨就是他们利润的生死线。低于100美元一吨,很有可能就意味着挖一吨,亏一吨。但是看上面的走势图大家也可以看得到,在2021年,铁矿石还曾经达到220美元一吨,换句话说,每一吨那时的毛利可以达到100-1000%,那时根本不是挖矿,简直就是挖钱。那既然有赚钱的时候,自然也会遇到冷清的时候。只是,现在的这次冷清,可能时间会很长。

大家知道我本人对于澳元未来走势判断主要依靠三个原因:铁矿石价格走势,中国经济,以及美元政策。而目前唯一对澳元有利的就是美元可能会马上降息。但是影响澳元最大的铁矿石价格,则依然会在未来很长一段时间里让澳元抬不起头。我们都知道,和铁矿石价格息息相关的就是新增制造业数据,那根据最新发布的中国新制造业数据显示,2024年前6个月的数据对比2023年后半年下跌了24%,对比2023年全年下跌21%,对于2022年下跌39%. 换而言之就是目前制造业对于铁矿石的需求在未来6-12个月时间内依然会持续疲软。那怎么办?两个潜在的办法:1.等,靠,要。等待中国发布更多刺激利好,靠那些拯救房地产的政策来拉动铁矿石价格,以及和澳洲联邦政府要补贴。2.寻找更多买家,分散风险。例如寻找通过提高印度,越南等目前发展较快国家的需求量来弥补中国减少的缺口。

但是,以上文字其实都是纸上谈兵。对于澳洲大部分铁矿石供应商来说,每天要保持开采,运输,装运,生产线是不能停的。也意味着其实亏损了,也无法停。从某种意义上来说,澳洲的铁矿石公司,就和街边的餐馆一样:看上去是硬刚需,但是当消费降级的时候,任何餐馆都逃不过流水下降的命运,你再研究餐品,发布新菜,打折促销,都无法改变消费者口袋里钱不够的事实。所以,澳元也一样,很大程度上和铁矿石的走势几乎是直接的同呼吸,共命运。所以我对于未来澳元走势的大体判断依然没有改变:中国地产反弹,澳元就可以扬眉吐气,如果你觉得中国房价很难有所突破,那么澳元的未来很大程度上也已经被“安排”了。免责声明:GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人;并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式:墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文) 400 120 8537中国地区(英文) +248 4 671 903作者:

Mike Huang | GO Markets 销售总监

Mike Huang
August 13, 2024
每日财经快讯
美国最新7月CPI能否扭转股市

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过去的一周一度把市场吓得够呛,周一的暴跌一度令恐慌指数冲上65,股市甚至有了崩盘的迹象。好在后半周日本央行表态不会在动荡市场中加息,美联储单日大降隔夜逆回购量,伊朗至今未对以色列动手,市场逐步反弹,截止周五收盘,三大股指周线仅小幅下跌,基本挽回了周一暴跌的幅度。那么本周三最新CPI数据能否扭转三大股指连续4周的跌势呢?

尽管上周股市周级别仅小幅回落,周一恐慌被消化,但股指已经连续下跌4周,随着过去几年每年三季度股市惨不忍睹的表现,市场信心骤降。本次财报季的回调是否也能像四月财报季回调那样经过几周下跌蓄力后,走出一波新高呢?个人觉得复刻难度很大,希望较为渺茫,需要看9月美联储是降息25个基点还是50个基点。当然目前距离9月中美联储利率决议尚有时间,大家更应该把握好当下的行情,那么本周的7月CPI数据就是最值得关注的了。由于上月CPI超预期回落,美国的通胀数据目前已经回到了3%的低位,离2%的目标区间越来越近,特别是今年通胀数据每个月的表现越来越给人稳步下行的感觉,美联储也就没必要一直保持在5.5%的高利率上限了。本次CPI预测值将回落到2.9%的增幅,较上月有0.1%的增速放缓,从预期上是利好股市的。若通胀能回到预期的2.9%增幅,那么美联储大可不必降息50个基点,因此我们从FedWatch上看到上周初超过70%概率首降50个基点目前已经不足一半,反而是降息25个基点占据了主动并超过50%概率。随着财报季接近尾声,美股恐慌刚刚暴走一波并消散,本周前半周的行情预计是较为稳健的,大概率能延续周四周五的反弹,从技术面看,纳指标普回补临近缺口的可能也很大,但这样的预期仅仅是前半周,更不能说是对股市的扭转。后半周的市场需要CPI落地后具体数据做参考。无论如何,三季度美股要彻底被扭转走高的可能性依然很小,当然9月首降后我们会再做实时评估,分析也是基于当前整体市场行情得出的结论。

那么在目前的大环境下,有什么投资标的是现在可以操作的呢?首先就是快速回落的恐慌指数,目前恐慌指数依然在20之上,如以前分析一致,恐慌仅能维持短时间的高位,大部分时间恐慌都是在不断下行的,因此目前恐慌指数做空依然有机会。还有就是前面提到的纳指标普前半周很可能继续反弹,短线单做多还是有些机会。至于股票标的,七巨头中目前技术面和基本面都不错的可操作标的是Meta,本轮回撤幅度也不大,财报也十分优秀,短期重新高的可能性比其他几个巨头更大一些。另外财报后的台积电也走出了下行通道,还被机构评为最值得持有的半导体公司,上涨空间也很大。再有减肥药题材依然火爆,礼来能炒到近万亿市值绝非偶然,诺和诺德目前的基本面和技术面均依然处于震荡上行趋势。这几个标的也是目前能够找到的较稳健的避险标的。

最后筛选下没有高科技公司加持的澳股,实在是找不到合适的标的目前可以进场。资源类股票逢大盘反弹会有些许反弹,但看不到持续性。目前由于伊朗口嗨和俄乌战局的恶化,令贵金属,能源以及供应链板块出现短期上涨是显而易见的,但中东局势这几年一直反反复复,宏观上暂时看不到战局失控的现象,伊朗要是继续走走过场,那么很快处于高位的紧张局势降消退,资源类产品又会陷入到需要被强制控制价格的境地中,澳股就有更加明显的反映了。这里单独说一下铀矿,目前国际铀价一直徘徊在今年底部价格80美元以上,短期没有破位风险但也无法上涨突破,算是资源题材中较稳健了,然而铀矿股的表现却不一致,过去两个月持续回落依然看不到止跌反弹信号,但个人觉得国际铀价若能持续稳定,澳铀股一路下跌的可能性也不大,目前的位置也算阶段低位了,进场反弹机会不大,但下行空间也一样不大,长期核能铀矿还是有很大的机遇可以起飞的。另外澳股方面金融服务和地产行业的权重股是稳定澳股股指并令其能够跟随美盘大致走向的关键,若美盘能够纸叠的反弹,那么诸如CBA和GMG这些标的也是较抗跌且可中长线持有的不错选择。免责声明:GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人;并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式:墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文) 400 120 8537中国地区(英文) +248 4 671 903作者:

Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 高级分析师

Xavier Zhang
August 12, 2024
每日财经快讯
澳洲房地产都在亏钱?房价明明在涨啊

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昨天,全球市场回暖,但是澳洲房地产股票Mirvac Group 股价下跌 9% 至 1.92 澳币。在该房地产公司公布2024 财年业绩后,投资者一直在抛售其股票。Mirvac 报告称,12 个月的每股营业收益为 14 c,同比下降 5%。并且预计 2025 财年的情况会变得更糟。管理层透露,其目标是每股营业收益达到 12 c,同比下降 12% 。

首先,澳洲房市长期稳定是客观事实,毕竟长周期里面,房地产市场可以涨10%,跌5%,总体向上,直至居民年度收入与房产价格均价差值差出15倍。澳大利亚房价上涨主要有以下几个因素:强劲的需求和人口增长:人口增加和住房高需求继续推高价格,尤其是在悉尼、墨尔本和布里斯班等主要城市。供应有限:建筑行业面临的挑战,例如熟练劳动力和材料短缺,减缓了新房的完工速度,造成供需失衡,从而推高了价格。低利率(历史):尽管利率最近有所上升,但在很长一段时间内都处于历史低位,鼓励借贷和投资房地产,未来也有降息的机会。低首付,澳洲一直是10%-20%的首付就可以买房,对于澳洲人来说,200万澳币的房产,首付只需要40万。

2024 年,澳大利亚全职工人的平均工资约为每年 92,029 澳元,或每周 1,769.80 澳元。这一数字反映了各个行业和职位的税前收入。兼职工人的平均年薪为 67,521 澳元,相当于每小时 34.63 澳元左右。平均年薪从2023 年 5 月的每周 1,838.10 澳元增加到 2023 年 11 月的每周 1,845.00 澳元,同比温和增长约 3.9%。同样,澳大利亚房价在过去持续上涨。截至 2024 年中,全国平均房价约为 798,207 澳元。悉尼和墨尔本等主要城市的房价大幅上涨,推动全国平均水平整体上涨,全国房屋价值同比增长约 7.6%,跑赢工资收入增长。目前在悉尼,平均房价为1,916,575 澳元,购买一套房屋需要大约 21 年的平均全职工资。那么为什么房价上涨,房地产开发商和建筑商不赚钱呢?主要是建筑成本增加,建筑材料和劳动力成本飙升,挤压了开发商的利润率。供应链中断和通货膨胀加剧了这些问题。严格的监管和更高的利率增加了借贷成本,降低了房地产开发商和房地产投资信托基金的盈利能力。尽管房价上涨,但这些财务压力仍可能导致亏损。假设开发商过去年利润是15%-20%,由于人工成本上涨4%,利息上涨5%,是超过房价上涨部分的,并且,由于经济运转效率比以往相对较低(高息环境),建设项目延迟,可能导致持有成本增加。在股价上,3-5年周期的经济不确定性和市场波动会影响投资者信心和上市房地产公司和房地产投资信托基金的财务业绩。

所以,澳洲股市上,想要配置跟地产相关的板块,比较推荐的还是银行加上头部的几个地产集团,包括GMG,主要是工业和物流地产,电子商务增长和强大的物流网络推动业绩强劲。DXS,办公和工业地产,拥有位于黄金地段的优质办公资产及强大的管理团队。SCG,零售物业,特别是 Westfield 购物中心,占据主导地位的零售业务和战略位置。虽然房价上涨表明澳大利亚房地产市场需求旺盛,但开发商和房地产投资信托基金正面临着建筑成本增加、监管压力和项目延期等挑战。对于投资者来说,选择管理良好、多元化的房地产投资信托基金,REITS,或者银行股,以及头部的地产公司,自己搭配做一个投资组合,结合较低的股价和稳健的分红,可以提供稳定的回报和房地产市场敞口,而无需承担开发商面临的直接风险。

免责声明:GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人;并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式:墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文) 400 120 8537中国地区(英文) +248 4 671 903作者:

Jacky Wang | GO Markets 亚洲投研部主管

Jacky Wang
August 9, 2024
Shares and Indices
PDD Holdings posts better-than-expected earnings – the stock is up

World’s 3 rd largest e-commerce company PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: PDD) reported Q4 2023 before the US market opened on Wednesday. The Chinese company achieved revenue of $12.519 billion in the last 3 months of 2023 vs. $11.202 billion expected. Revenue was up by 123% year-over-year.

Earnings per share was reported at $2.44 vs. estimate of $1.589 per share. Company overview Founded: 2015 Headquarters: Shanghai, China Number of employees: 12,992 (2022) Industry: Internet, Agriculture Key people: Lei Chen, Jiazhen Zhao CEO commentary "2023 represents a pivotal chapter in our corporate history as we transition towards high-quality development," Lei Chen, Chairman and Co-CEO of PDD Holdings said in a press release to investors. "In 2024, we remain dedicated to further improving consumer experiences, enhancing technology innovations, and generating positive impacts in our communities," Chen looked ahead. Jiazhen Zhao, Executive Director and Co-CEO of the company said this in his note to shareholders: "In the fourth quarter, we saw growing demand driven by encouraging consumer sentiment.

We will continue our high-quality development strategy, stay dedicated to offer great value and exceptional service, and keep building thriving communities that can benefit all." Stock reaction The stock was up by over 3% on Wednesday, trading at $131.80 a share. Stock performance 5 day: +5.92% 1 month: -0.12% 3 months: -11.49% Year-to-date: -11.42% 1 year: +71.47% PDD stock price targets Jefferies Financial Group: $157 The Goldman Sachs Group: $136 Benchmark: $215 UBS Group: $137 CLSA: $114 HSBC: $126 Barclays: $115 Sandford C. Bernstein: $120 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $120 Morgan Stanley: $120 Bank of America: $112 Citigroup: $125 Nomura: $110 PDD Holdings Inc. is the 72 nd largest company in the world with a market cap of $173.63 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.

You can trade PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: PDD) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.

Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: PDD Holdings Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap

Klavs Valters
August 9, 2024
Shares and Indices
Micron earnings top estimates – the stock is flying in the after-hours

It was a busy day in the US today, with investors waiting on the latest policy decision from the Federal Reserve. The Fed left interest rates unchanged at 5.5%, as expected. All three major Indices, Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq finished the trading day at all-time highs for the first time since 8/11/2021.

After the market closing bell, Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) released Q2 of fiscal 2024 financial results and the US semiconductor company did not disappoint. The company reported revenue of $5.824 billion, which was above analyst estimate of $5.347 billion. Earnings per share was reported at $0.42.

Analyst expected Micron to report a loss per share of -$0.253. Company overview Founded: October 5, 1978 Headquarters: Boise, Idaho, United States Number of employees: 43,000 (2023) Industry: Semiconductors Key people: Robert E. Switz (Chairman), Sanjay Mehrotra (President & CEO) CEO commentary "Micron delivered fiscal Q2 results with revenue, gross margin and EPS well above the high-end of our guidance range — a testament to our team’s excellent execution on pricing, products and operations," Sanjay Mehrotra, CEO of Micron said in a statement. "Our preeminent product portfolio positions us well to deliver a strong fiscal second half of 2024.

We believe Micron is one of the biggest beneficiaries in the semiconductor industry of the multi-year opportunity enabled by AI," Mehrotra added. Stock reaction Shares were up by 2.39% at the end of the session on Wednesday at $96.25 a share. The stock rose by over 14% in the after-hours trading as earnings topped expectations.

Stock performance 5 day: +2.22% 1 month: +18.11% 3 months: +22.32% Year-to-date: +12.78% 1 year: +65.46% Micron stock price targets New Street Research: $100 Wolfe Research: $80 BMO Capital Markets: $90 Susquehanna: $112 Evercore ISI: $100 Wells Fargo & Company: $95 The Goldman Sachs Group: $97 Deutsche Bank: $90 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $105 Morgan Stanley: $74.75 Bank of America: $100 Needham & Company LLC: $100 Piper Sandler: $95 Raymond James: $100 Mizuho: $105 Micron Technology Inc. is the 142 nd largest company in the world with a market cap of $106.25 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".

GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.

Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Micron Technology Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap

Klavs Valters
August 9, 2024
Shares and Indices
Lennar Q1 2024 financial results announced

Lennar Corporation (NYSE: LEN) has had a good start to 2024 with the share price up by over 11% reaching new all-time highs. On Wednesday, it was time for the US construction company to release the latest financial results for Q1 2024, ending on 29/2/24. Lennar reported revenue of $7.313 billion for the quarter, which was below estimate of $7.39 billion.

Revenue was up by 13% from the same period the year before. Earnings per share topped expectations at $2.57 (up by 25% year-over-year) vs. $2.21 per share expected. Company overview Founded: 1954 Headquarters: Waterford District, unincorporated Miami-Dade County, Florida (Miami, Florida postal address) Number of employees: 12,012 (2022) Industry: Construction Key people: Stuart Miller (Executive Chairman, co-CEO), Jon Jaffe (co-CEO, President), Fred Rothman (COO) Stock reaction Shares were down by 0.28% at the end of Wednesday’s session at $165.50 a share.

The stock fell by around 1% in the after-hours trading. Stock performance 5 day: +2.77% 1 month: +7.56% 3 months: +14.01% Year-to-date: +11.04% 1 year: +65.19% Lennar stock price targets Wedbush: $130 Raymond James: $165 JMP Securities: $170 The Goldman Sachs Group: $158 Royal Bank of Canada: $137 Barclays: $165 Jefferies Financial Group: $117 Wells Fargo & Company: $130 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $135 Citigroup: $139 UBS Group: $159 Evercore ISI: $164 Bank of America: $120 Lennar Corporation is the 416 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $45.63 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Lennar Corporation (NYSE: LEN) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.

To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?

Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Lennar Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap

Klavs Valters
August 9, 2024