市场资讯及洞察

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美国刚刚落地的CPI和PPI均超预期回落，生生把暴跌超今年单周记录的标普和纳指拉涨到超今年单周涨幅记录。本周作为央行周，美联储预计在转向货币紧缩政策两年多后首次降息，货币政策由此转向，目前FedWatch预计降息25个基点还是50个基点均为50%，为后半周美股走向埋下大炸弹。由这份预计概率看出，向来预测精准无误的FedWatch本次不愿意背锅了，五五开的预计怎么都不会错。然而这却对市场造成了极大的隐患，给不到明确降息预期就等于市场无法提前消化降息影响。美国作为世界第一大经济体，美国的利率决议不仅影响着股市走向，更影响着美元连带的外汇，黄金，原油，国债还有大宗商品期货价格的走向。

因此我们说美股本周将迎来大考，原来预期降息25个基点，市场也消化了本次降息25个基点的预期，若美联储真降息25个基点，市场影响相对较小，而聚焦点向来都是鲍威尔的新闻发布会。只是本次降息基点没有明确预测，那么若降息50个基点，股市势必暴涨，前半周也将有一部分预期会消化降息50个基点，那么届时若降息25个基点就变成了利空股市。我们之前分析过，美联储着急降息并不是因为通胀回落到位了，也不是经济要衰退了，从数据看，美联储降息是受到了就业数据不佳的影响，就业市场的隐患加上其他西方国家都开始有序降息，美国需要保证就业健康以及本土产品的国际竞争力。美联储降息的力度就目前3%的GDP增幅看根本不需要有任何迫切性，完全可以首降25个基点后慢悠悠看着经济数据慢慢进行。就这方面原因分析，美联储本次降息大概率还是25个基点，这也使得之前我一直预测的降息幅度。目前FedWatch给出了五五开的降息预期，降息50个基点的概率提升反而令投资者捏了一把汗，究竟是什么未知原因令美联储需要着急大力降息呢?是表面数据造假了？还是诸多金融数据实际上问题很大？本周二即将公布的零售销售月率也被称为恐怖数据，每月一次，基本能够反映美国当前经济情况，是美国经济的晴雨表。前值1%在本月被预测降至0.1%，若公布数据符合预期，则说明美国经济实际上并没有想象得那么好。这也会在当前五五开的基础上增加降息50个基点得概率。所以届时我们可以做个判断，若恐怖数据很低，但降息概率依然是五五开，则说明FedWatch基本放弃给出方向，美国除了非农数据不可信，GDP都需要打个问号了。

之前对三季度美股保持非常谨慎的态度，股指也的确没有冲上新高。然而9月过半，美股股指却坚韧且富有弹性，尽管AI板块没能再度力挽狂澜拉动股指冲高，7巨头近几个月的股价都比较挣扎，但目前我们看到的，是美股没有持续回调，随着时间推移，美股若能熬过三季度，届时降息节奏开启，大选落地，隐隐有种感觉，市场或将迎来一轮牛市，在圣诞行情布局机会到来时，或许是大家沉稳控制仓位数月后进场的最好时间节点。当然，这一切还有些距离，首先美股需要迎接本周的货币政策转向大考。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：

Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 高级分析师

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苹果公司（Apple Inc.，股票代码AAPL）近期的股价走势引发了广泛的市场讨论。作为全球最具市值的科技公司之一，苹果公司一直以来都是投资者的宠儿。然而，随着9月10日新款iPhone的发布，市场对于苹果未来表现的看法出现了一定的分歧。在新机发布的同时，苹果公司却遭遇了一系列挑战，包括输掉与欧盟的法律争斗、税款补缴，Apple Intelligence功能上线不及预期以及围绕这段时间以来与腾讯关于微信小游戏“苹果税”的争议。今天我们将综合这些因素，分析苹果股票的近期趋势及未来可能的走向。

首先，苹果公司在9月10日发布了最新款的iPhone系列。然而，与以往不同的是，这次新品发布并未能激起市场预期的强烈反响。原因之一是苹果在新品中引入的Apple Intelligence功能，其核心技术被市场寄予厚望，然而，该功能的完全实现和应用却未能如期到来，仍需等到后续更新逐步上线，而作为苹果手机的主力消费市场，国行版iPhone可能要等到明年才能等到Apple Intelligence的上线。这种新品推出上市却并未达到消费者预期的情况往往会影响投资者的信心。其次，苹果在与欧盟的法律争斗中落败，被判需补缴144亿美元的税款。这一判决无疑加重了苹果的财务负担。欧盟指控苹果在爱尔兰享受了非法的税收优惠，违反了欧盟的竞争法。虽然苹果表示将继续上诉，但这一裁决为公司带来的潜在财务风险和声誉损失已经显现。税务问题始终是跨国科技公司所面临的最大挑战之一，苹果的这一挫败也使得市场对于苹果股票失去了一部分信心。

除了法律和财务问题外，苹果公司还面临着与腾讯之间关于微信小游戏“苹果税”的持续争议。苹果公司自2017年起开始对所有通过App Store销售的应用内购收取30%的佣金，这也是苹果公司占比不小的一部分收入，而这一策略被称为“苹果税”。尽管现在双方有意进行谈判和妥协，但这一争议仍然是苹果与中国市场之间的一个关键博弈点。苹果与微信小游戏的抽成问题不仅关系到苹果在中国市场的营收，还涉及到其全球商业模式的可持续性。市场对于苹果能否妥善处理这一问题的疑虑，进一步加剧了股票的不确定性。从历史来看，苹果股票在新产品发布后的表现通常会经历短期的波动。过往几年，新款iPhone发布后，苹果股价多为下跌，而今年也不出意外，发布会结束后，盘中跌幅一度扩大到1%，尽管当天美股收盘时有0.04%的涨幅，但是截止到周二美股收盘还是下跌了0.3%，但是根据往年的情况预测，随后股价会因市场情绪和预期的消化，出现一定幅度的调整，并在随后几周到几个月的时间内逐渐回调上涨，并且在长达一年的时间范围内，通常表现较为强劲，而韦德布什也在9.10好将苹果的目标价从285美元上调到了300美元，这说明市场即使在短期内因为不确定性和负面新闻而产生波动，但总体对苹果的长期发展依然看好。

目前，市场对苹果的未来走势存在较大的分歧。一方面，苹果在多个领域的技术创新和市场领先地位仍然不容忽视，其庞大的用户基础和生态系统带来的稳定营收依然是投资者看好的主要原因；另一方面，面对全球法律环境的变化、竞争对手的步步紧逼以及创新速度放缓的担忧，苹果需要在新一轮科技革命中展现出更强的领导力。值得注意的是，美联储的货币政策变化也可能影响苹果的股价表现，一般来讲科技公司通常在低利率环境下表现较好，因此可能需要进一步关注美联储九月的降息决策，因为宏观经济环境的变化也是影响苹果股价的重要因素。综上所述，苹果公司近期的股价走势受到多种因素的共同影响，包括新品发布的市场反应不佳、法律争端的财务压力、新功能的交付延迟以及全球市场政策环境的不确定性。投资者在评估苹果股票时，需要综合考虑这些短期挑战与长期潜力的平衡。尽管苹果的短期股价可能面临一定的波动，但凭借其在科技创新和市场战略方面的持续优势，更多人还是相信长期来看，苹果依旧是一只有着强劲潜力的股票，也将在未来继续在全球科技行业中扮演引领者的角色。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：

Yoyo Ma | GO Markets 墨尔本中文部

The recent USD decline stalled in yesterday’s session with FX traders seemingly taking the view that there is not enough thrust from US data to justify a significantly weaker USD just yet. Aside from the inflation aspect – and markets may have reacted a bit too optimistically to the CPI and PPI – jobless claims also eased back yesterday to 222k after a jump to 232k one week ago, mirroring the January reading where they reached 225k but then dropped back to the 200-210k area. GBP under pressure EURGBP has come off its 0.8610 peak in the past couple of sessions with a strong equity market benefitting the more cyclical and risk sensitive Pound Sterling.

At the same time, volatility in the pair seems to be abating ahead of the key CPI figures in the UK next week. Risks are skewed to the dovish side for the Bank of England, and a move higher in EURGBP is a good chance as traders increase their bets on a June rate cut. Today, the key event for GBP traders is a speech by the BoE’s Catherine Mann, who is considered the MPC’s most hawkish member.

Yesterday, Megan Greene echoed the recent cautious optimism on inflation expressed by Governor Andrew Bailey at the latest meeting.

Mays FOMC minutes released on Wednesday surprised on the hawkish side, bolstering USD and seeing the Dollar Index (DXY) retake the psychological 105 level. While the general view of FOMC members was that policy was “well positioned”, there were a few more than expected who were open to more hikes if needed, questioning whether policy was restrictive enough. Hot March inflation and jobs figures seemingly lingering in the minds of some of the kore hawkish members of the FOMC despite some encouraging April data.

Hawks Neel Kashkari and Chris Waller being the main voices regarding caution from the Fed in cutting too early, though it does seem that the general FOMC sentiment has turned generally less hawkish since the May meeting so any pop in the USD may be short lived. In today’s economic releases for FX traders PMIs are released in the US and eurozone. Given indications from recent data, there is the possibility for eurozone figures to paint a relatively more encouraging picture on inflation than in the US, also Nvidia’s solid results will likely have some positive impact on risk sentiment today.

Where’s the Federal Reserve at? Slowing Growth and Potential Rate Cuts: Recent economic data suggests a slowdown in growth, contrary to earlier expectations of reaccelerating growth and inflation. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's statements and recent economic indicators point towards the possibility of lower policy rates in the near future.

Key indicators, such as the softening in job markets and overall economic activity, indicate that growth is decelerating rather than accelerating. Core inflation remains above the Fed's target but is showing signs of a gradual decline, with core CPI at 0.29% month-over-month (MoM) in April. This trend could build the Fed's confidence that inflation is on a downward trajectory, potentially leading to rate cuts starting in July.

These data trends have filtered into in the market itself. The divergence between the S&P and US 2-year has been come very apparent as yields unwind from their hawkish bets that ramped up on Q1 data. That spread is becoming an interesting trade – it could close as fast as it has opened if data misses.

On the data – what is core to the Fed’s view? Inflation Trends: Core inflation remains elevated but shows signs of slowing. The April core CPI increase of 0.29% MoM aligns with the Fed's expectations of gradual inflation decline.

The slow but steady decrease in shelter prices, particularly the owner’s equivalent rent (OER), is a positive sign. However, the "supercore" non-shelter services sector's inflation is unlikely to slow significantly without a loosening of the labour market and that remains a headwind. That brings us to the next question what is the official views of the Fed?

Federal Reserve Outlook: The recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes and statements from Fed officials suggest it still holds a cautious approach. While there is no major shift towards a hawkish stance, the rhetoric indicates a readiness to cut rates if inflation data supports a premise it’s on a path to a more sustainable level. Yet the view from members is rather mixed, illustrated by the mixed views from members over the past week.

Key Statements Vice Chair Philip Jefferson: Jefferson noted that while April's data is encouraging, it is too early to determine if the slowdown in inflation is sustainable. He emphasized the current restrictive monetary policy and refrained from predicting when rate cuts might begin, stressing the importance of assessing incoming economic data and the balance of risks. Vice Chair of Supervision Michael Barr: Barr expressed disappointment with Q1 inflation readings, which did not increase his confidence in easing monetary policy.

He reinforced the message that rate cuts are on hold until there's clear evidence that inflation will return to the 2% target. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester: Mester anticipates a gradual decline in inflation this year but acknowledges that it will be slower than expected. She no longer expects three rate cuts this year and mentioned that the Fed is prepared to hold rates steady or raise them if inflation does not improve as anticipated.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly: Daly sees no need for rate hikes but also lacks confidence that inflation is decreasing towards 2%. She sees no urgency to cut rates, echoing the broader sentiment of caution among Fed officials. The conclusion from all this is that the Fed is still giving itself time.

It’s of the view that the restrictive policy will need more time to work, suggesting a prolonged period of higher interest rates to combat inflation effectively and despite the movements in the bond market and USD. Traders in the fed fund futures are still trading a full 50 basis points higher as of now compared to their bets at the March meeting. (Black v Blue line) Other data that matters: GDP and Consumer Spending: Despite strong GDP growth in the latter half of 2023, real GDP growth slowed significantly to 1.6% annualized in Q1 2024. Final private domestic demand was sustained primarily by consumer services spending, even as real goods spending declined.

The weakening consumer spending on goods is beginning to spill over into the services sector, indicating broader consumer weakness. Manufacturing and Investment: Data on manufacturing and business investment remains weak. Manufacturing production has stagnated, and orders for durable goods have not shown significant improvement.

Residential fixed investment is also slowing, with housing starts and building permits both declining in April. Housing Market: Existing home sales data, to be released soon, is expected to show a modest rebound from the previous month. However, ongoing weakness in the housing market, influenced by higher mortgage rates, remains a concern.

Hot Copper – Too hot? Copper has experienced significant price movements, with several key factors contributing to the recent trends in copper prices, spreads, and inventory levels. The following points provide an in-depth analysis of the forces at play: Tighter Physical Copper Market: Last week's record highs in COMEX and SHFE copper prices, alongside the COMEX-LME copper spreads indicate a very tight physical copper market.

This saw the LME copper price smash a new record all-time high (above US$11,000 a tonne). The dislocation in copper price benchmarks, such as the COMEX-LME spread, typically leads to adjustments in physical flows. However, current conditions are proving challenging, with generally low copper inventories and logistical issues.

For example, traders in China are facing tight shipping schedules, making it difficult to move copper to the US. Suggesting the price will hold in the interim De-commoditisation of Commodities: Deliverable Metal Scarcity: The elevated COMEX copper prices relative to other benchmarks can be partly attributed to the lack of deliverable metal. Only 17% of the metal in LME warehouses originates from countries with COMEX-approved brands.

This scarcity of deliverable inventory means that most of the available copper cannot be used to satisfy COMEX contracts, driving up the COMEX copper premium. RIO, BHP and the like all benefit from this. Influence of Financial Flows: Naturally this kind of move brings highten investor and trader interest.

COMEX copper futures are experiencing all-time highs in long positioning and record open interest in copper options. This surge in financial flows has pushed COMEX copper prices higher compared to other benchmarks and has been more resistant to reversal. What next?

The tight inventory situation is likely to persist, especially if logistical challenges and shipping delays continue. This will maintain upward pressure on prices and could lead to further dislocations between different copper price benchmarks. Efforts to alleviate bottlenecks will be crucial in normalizing price spreads and stabilizing the market.

Any improvement in shipping schedules or inventory replenishment could ease some of the current tensions, but we do not hold our breathe for this to occur any time soon. Conclusion The recent record highs in copper prices and spreads underscore a complex interplay of tight physical markets, and significant financial flows. Traders should closely monitor these dynamics and adapt their positions to capitalise on potential switches and further squeezes.

But in the main Dr. Copper is hot and likely to remain so until supply catches up.

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9月8日，中国方面正式发文允许外商在部分地区以独资设立医院。政策原文是这样的：“……拟允许在北京、天津、上海、南京、苏州、福州、广州、深圳和海南全岛设立外商独资医院（中医类除外，不含并购公立医院）。设立外商独资医院的具体条件、要求和程序等将另行通知。” 该政策还允许外商投资企业在北京、上海、广东的自由贸易试验区和海南自贸港从事人类干细胞和基金的诊断开发和技术应用，以用于产品注册上市和生产。

允许外商独资建医院是中国三明医改的配套措施，这其实不是什么新鲜事。过去十年，中国对于外商参与医疗行业的态度是慎之又慎，政策也是反复横跳，今年再次放开，我们且看且珍惜。2014年中国允许7城设立外商独资医院，但是2015年医疗机构被列入限制类清单，2017年明确了外资只能通过合资或合作方式参与投资设立医疗机构，2023年又提出支持外籍和港澳台医生在北京开诊所病并提供职称支持。在中国，大部分外国投资者只能与中资合作做生意，独资审批的条条框框劝退了很多国际直投资金。今年1-7月外资直接投资同比下降近30%到5395亿元人民币（约761亿美元）。前段时间，IBM关掉了设立在中国的研发部门，很多人认为外资逃离中国了，其实可能要分行业、分版块来看。充分竞争的行业例如日化、快消品，外资乐于进入中国，压根没有想走的意思，代表标的：可口可乐、百事可乐、嘉士伯、宝洁等等；高科技产业，外资可能是阶段性进入，打一波时间差，等中国行业被带动起来以后，没办法赚快钱就战略性退出，代表标的惠普、戴尔、IBM、Oracle。中国通过引进独资的苹果与特斯拉， 让其手机产业、电动汽车产业和智能驾驶产业实现了巨大飞跃，本次开放引进外商独资医院，可能也是追求这种“鲇鱼效应“。本次外商独资放开可能带来的未来趋势，第一是医院分级诊疗越来越明显。普通老百姓看普通病症，中国的公立医院性价比高、是首选；追求高质量服务、需要高端医疗、罹患疑难杂症的人群，可以选择前往外商私立医院，不报医保，自掏腰包，但是治病的可选范围和疗愈几率都大了不少。第二，国际创新药的高价模式和应用场景在中国可能有了承接渠道。国际创新药研发巨头的管线被证伪几率非常小，药品研发团队和资金链也相对完善，而中国对于肿瘤治疗、再生医学例如干细胞医学，中风康复治疗等国际创新药的需求比较大，当然这类药品在中国国内的上市销售还需要看后续的配套细则。下面介绍以下4个全球100亿美元市值以上的医疗板块标的，供您参考：Johnson & Johnson（NYSE: JNJ）主要业务涵盖医疗设备、制药和消费品。旗下的医疗设备部门生产手术系统、心血管设备等。中国对高质量医疗设备需求巨大，尤其是在手术和心血管领域。现有的全球布局使其在中国市场具备竞争优势。强生公司是美股医疗板块的蓝筹股，公司毛利率长期保持在60%-70% 之间，净利润率通常在20% 左右，股息派发历史超过50 年，是可靠的股息贵族，2023年年化股息率约为2.5% 至 3% 左右。

Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc（NYSE: TMO）全球市值最大的生命科学和实验室设备供应商之一，主要提供科学仪器、试剂和耗材，广泛应用于医疗和科研领域。2019年公司在中国苏州设立了全球最大的生产基地之一，用于制造实验室设备和诊断试剂，又与中国医学科学院等机构合作，帮助推动基因组学、癌症研究和精准医疗的发展。公司得力于新冠期间对医疗设备和试剂需求，2020年股价增长60%，2021年股价全年增长90%。Intuitive Surgical, Inc.（NAS: ISRG）公司核心产品达芬奇（da Vinci）机器人手术系统在中国的应用起步较早，主要集中在一线城市和一些二线城市的大型医院。一些顶级心脏病医院已经开始引入达芬奇系统进行心脏瓣膜修复和肿瘤切除手术。过去三年每股收益增长19%，属于2024年以来上涨比较强势的医疗板块公司。HCA Healthcare Inc（NYSE:HCA）HCA全球最大的私营医院运营商之一，成立于1968年，总部位于美国，当前管理全球400多家医院，可以提供高端完善的医院、急诊室、诊所、外科中心等多种医疗服务及配套设置。自2019年1月以来，公司股价上涨214.43%，过去60 天内，10 位分析师上调了 2024 财年的盈利预期，公司本财年盈利预期上涨17.6%，每股收益预计上涨9%，可能是比较好的可以抵御和对冲九月效应的医疗标的。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：

Christine Li | GO Markets 墨尔本中文部