市场资讯及洞察

If you look at equity markets in particular, you'd think everything smelled of roses. For the 47th time this calendar year US indices have made record all-time highs and 46 times at record closing highs. Earning season is underway and so far, it is doing what it always does, which is beating the Street 75 percent of the time.

Banking, Tech and industrials are the standouts. And even when you look at the 493 non magnificent 7 stocks on the S&P 500 the gap between the seven and the rest is finally starting to close up. So all is well at least that's how it appears.

However over the next 20 days the risks that are facing global markets cannot be understated. First and foremost is the US presidential election. As we point out in our US 2024 election specials, the margin between Trump and Harris has never been closer.

In fact, most probability markets now have Trump ahead. Predictit for example, Trump leads by three points and on RealClearPolitics it's even larger sitting at 10.8 points. Most of the key states or swing states are statistical dead heat but on average Trump is now ahead by 0.2 at 47.7 to 47.5.

Whichever way you look at it, whoever wins on Election Day, it will lead to disputes and the other side is unlikely to accept the result. The political upheaval will filter through into markets, and we need to be ready for that. What has also been lost in geopolitics and the incredible run in equities is movements in the bond market and the risks around US inflation.

And it is this that we need to take a closer look at. Trends and Key Drivers in US Inflation Blink and you will have missed it, the back end of the USU curve is back above 4%. This is down to several risk factors, The US presidential election being one, employment being another, and then the big one inflation rearing its head in September.

There was an unexpectedly strong rise in CPI inflation for September. So is there some going on here or is it just a false flag? First things first - Core PCE inflation continues to trend at a consistent pace of approximately 2 per cent on an annualised basis.

This suggests that inflationary pressures, while present in some sectors, remain largely in check but risks remain. So what are the keys here? Key Factors on the Inflation Outlook: 1.

Core CPI Outperformance and PCE Expectations: September's core CPI surprised with a 0.31per cent month-on-month (MoM) increase, surpassing consensus forecast of 0.25 per cent. While this unexpected rise is noteworthy, the details of the PPI (Producer Price Index) data suggest a more moderate increase in core PCE inflation, estimated at 0.21per cent MoM for the same period. The issues in the inflation figures however remain in components such as shelter and insurance, which had been driving much of the previous increases, with weather events and housing price volatility expect inflation fluctuations here to persist in the near term.

The upward surprises in the headline CPI data were concentrated in volatile categories like apparel and airfares. Airfares, for instance, rose by approximately 3 per cent MoM on a seasonally adjusted basis. 2. Wage Growth and Labor Market Dynamics: The Atlanta Fed’s wage tracker indicated that wages picked up in September, with the unsmoothed year-on-year (YoY) measure reaching 4.9 per cent, up from 4.7 per cent in August.

Additionally, the 3-month smoothed measure and the overall weighted average both rose to 4.7 per cent, compared to 4.6 per cent in the previous month. Whichever measure you want to use, real wages in the US are growing at about 2.5 per cent. While this wage growth exceeds the rate typically consistent with a 2 percent inflation target (in the absence of significant productivity gains), it remains only modestly stronger and isn't a concern, yet.

It’s worth noting that wage growth may take longer to cool off, particularly given seasonal patterns in early 2024 and the effects of recent labour strikes in sectors like port operations and aircraft manufacturing, both of which have underscored the potential for more persistent wage inflation. Interestingly, the Atlanta Fed wage data revealed a sharp deceleration in wage growth for job switchers compared to job stayers. Normally, job switchers see higher wage increases, but over the past few months, the growth rates for both groups have converged.

This shift may signal weaker demand for labour and could be a key indicator of wage trends in the coming months. However, wages for current employees may lag behind, requiring time to adjust downward, much like how rental prices for new leases often move ahead of existing rents in shelter inflation. This dynamic suggests that wage pressures might remain elevated for a time, particularly if companies raise wages for existing employees to catch up with the now-slowing wage increases for new hires.

The ongoing wage growth for current employees could also keep hiring demand subdued, as firms may focus on managing costs rather than expanding their workforce only time will tell here. 3. Potential Impact of Hurricanes Helene and Milton: The inflationary impact from Hurricanes Helene and Milton are yet to be factored into most forecasts and thus it is important to acknowledge the potential for volatility in certain inflation components. Historically, hurricanes have primarily affected gas prices by disrupting supply chains.

However, there has been only minimal upward pressure on retail gas prices so far. Demand led cost in infrastructure and construction supplies also tend to increase post hurricanes as the clean-up and rebuild takes precedence. Another major CPI component that has historically shown sensitivity to hurricane-related disruptions is "lodging away from home." For example, in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, lodging prices initially dropped before rebounding the following month.

It remains unclear whether the recent hurricanes will affect hotel or recreational service prices in Florida, which were among the areas impacted. September CPI already showed weaker-than-expected data for lodging, and with discretionary spending on services potentially declining, this component could face further downside risks. However, if there is an unusually sharp drop in lodging prices for October, any hurricane-related distortions might result in a bounce-back in November CPI.

This is why we think the market needs to remain cautious on core PCE inflation. Will it stay modestly higher than the Fed’s 2% target over the near term? It's clearly possible.

Then there is the ongoing volatility in certain sectors and potential risks from external shocks like hurricanes mean inflation forecasts could still see adjustments. All in all we remain vigilant that despite the enthusiasm and bullishness in indices risks are building and traders need to be vigilant.

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近期，美股市场显现出分化格局，科技股承压明显，而蓝筹股表现相对稳健。这背后反映了市场情绪的波动与宏观经济的不确定性，以下为具体情况：

截至2025年1月28日，标普500指数收于599.37美元，较前一交易日下跌1.39%；纳斯达克100指数下挫2.93%，收于514.21美元；而道琼斯工业平均指数逆势上涨0.68%，收于447.12美元。科技股的表现尤其疲软，其中英伟达大跌17%，市值损失创纪录的5890亿美元，据福布斯网站显示，该公司首席执行官、最大个人股东黄仁勋净资产在收盘时缩水了208亿美元，从1244亿美元跌至1037亿美元，从福布斯实时亿万富翁排行榜的第10位跌至第17位。

甲骨文(ORCL.N)下跌14%，董事长拉里·埃里森净资产缩水276亿美元，从全球富豪榜第三跌至第五。与此同时，苹果公司逆势上涨3.18%，重新夺回全球市值第一的宝座，展现出强劲的基本面支撑。

市场情绪方面，恐慌指数VIX上涨20.54%，达到17.90，市场避险情绪升温。一方面，美联储货币政策调整、通胀数据波动以及经济增长预期的不确定性，尽管黄金价格短期内保持观望，2025年黄金依旧是投资者关注的焦点。另一方面DeepSeek引发的更广泛的市场下跌，迫使投资者在市场中进行套现。展望未来，美股市场可能持续高波动性。投资者需密切关注关键经济数据，如今晨发布的美联储利率决议，午时将要发布的澳大利亚第四季度CPI。此外，科技股的估值调整是否持续以及蓝筹股的稳定表现，将对市场走向产生重要影响。 当前市场环境下，建议投资者合理分散投资组合，关注基本面稳健的优质资产，同时适当配置避险品种如黄金和债券。复杂的市场环境中，保持理性、稳健决策是实现长期收益的关键。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Sylvia Qin | GO Markets 悉尼中文部

Since writing our Thematic paper for 2025 two of the four major themes have already shook markets in 2025. One has been the inauguration of Donald Trump as president of the United States of America and he nationalistic policies the second is the AI revolution taking a massive left hand turn. With the release of DeepSeek, the AI story may actually become the biggest theme of the year (big call considering it's still January).

We also need to rethink demand and the flow of funds in the wake of DeepSeek R1 disruption. Because if open-source DeepSeek R1 model does deliver performance comparable to OpenAI’s o1 reasoning model at a fraction of the cost (VentureBeat, Jan 20), it raises critical questions for not just AI, but periphery players in the AI chains as well. Here’s why: DeepSeek R1 is reshaping investor perceptions of the AI compute investment cycle.

Reports suggest that the model achieved competitive performance using significantly fewer computing resources and lower inference costs. These efficiency gains have cast doubts on the future scale of AI semiconductor and equipment investments, leading to selloffs across semiconductor stocks. Look at NVIDIA, Meta and closer to home NextDC and the like.

We also know that in China, DeepSeek v3 has already driven AI compute cost deflation. The R1 model leverages advanced techniques like multi-head latent attention (MLA) and mixture of experts (MOE), enabling more efficient training by breaking workloads into smaller parts. This is something o1 has only just begun doing – but at a higher cost load.

While these innovations may not apply universally to all models, they signal a shift that could impact global AI training strategies. Now the caveat the tech boffins point out here is that the greater training efficiency is unlikely to reduce overall compute spending in the near term, as improvements typically fuel more inference demand. But and it is a but, economies of scale always come home to roost in the end.

The consumer will benefit – the investor needs to get picky – who is going to lead and who is going to fall by the wayside? Lets look at the Tech Gorillas like Amazon, Google, and Meta, DeepSeek R1’s efficiencies create a mixed outlook. While these firms develop proprietary models it's important to remember that they also monetise AI services through platforms like Amazon Bedrock and Google Vertex.

Lower training costs could reduce operating and capital expenditures, boosting profitability. Amazon benefits from its partnerships with external developers. Google, meanwhile, leverages its Gemini model for growth.

Meta appears best positioned, as its Llama model generates minimal direct revenue, while its announcement of a 54%-66% year on year increase in capex to $60-$65 billion in 2025 demonstrates its commitment to scaling AI capabilities. This follows news of the Stargate project, which is estimated to add $100 billion in incremental cloud-related capex. These moves underscore that demand for high-performance data centres remains robust, even as cost-efficient AI models emerge.

So what about the hardware developers like NVIDIA (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO), and Marvell (MRVL) that have been savaged by DeepSeek’s cost efficiencies? While concerns about reduced training investment persist, long-term demand for AI compute remains robust and one player will not be enough to change that. Training requirements, particularly for inference workloads, are expected to drive growth over the next 2-3 years and no model as yet can do that without increased hardware.

The question will be margins – will hardware margins get squeezed from cost efficiencies? Then there is the memory sector, DRAM demand remains steady despite short-term pressures. TSMC, a critical player in AI accelerators, has also faced declines but remains integral to the semiconductor supply chain.

So, no real change here from DeepSeek. Where does this all leave us? The emergence of cost-efficient AI models like DeepSeek R1 introduces both opportunities and risks.

Yes, declining compute costs have mixed implications for the tech sector. On one hand, they alleviate margin pressures for software companies grappling with expensive AI features, potentially accelerating AI integration across product lines. But the risk to this is, lower barriers to entry could intensify competition from agile AI startups, challenging incumbents.

In short these innovations could reshape AI economics, the sustained demand for robust infrastructure, driven by broader AI adoption and multi-cloud trends are likely to overawe the negatives for a positive long-term outlook. Thus investors should focus on companies well-positioned to benefit from these shifts while remaining cautious of near-term volatility.

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澳洲小长假结束，金融市场却变了天。幻方和Deepseek创始人梁文峰昨夜击溃了华尔街资本堆叠的AI，幻方量化陆政哲用一句拗口的话诠释了博大精深：热爱决定相信，专注带来复利。是的，这个低调的团队用不到6百万美金的浇灌和不到三个月的测试创造的Deepseek追上了美国科技巨头们动辄上百亿美元花费数年堆叠起来的ChatGPT，这是一场美国对华芯片出口限制下被迫弯道超车产生的科技变革。倒不是说Deepseek有多完美，而是高效低价算法加上非顶级芯片造就的AI模型竟然可以跟顶流AI模型扳手腕，那么这样的方法应用到顶级芯片和金钱堆叠模型下的效果又会是怎样的呢？AI基础硬件的成本是否会出现断崖式下降，这是人类的福音，确是资本的噩梦。因为英伟达不会再按照剧本中安排的那样每年再赚那么多钱了，OpenAI的估值也会被打骨折。由此，我们从周一的美盘看到了真实的资本反应。

周一美盘被科技板块拖累，标普跌超1.4%；道指强势上涨0.65%展示美国经济强势；而高科技代表纳指收跌3.07%，盘前期货跌幅一度超过5%。英伟达跌近17%创造美股市值蒸发单日记录，也让出了市值排名第一的王座。资本涌入AI ASIC，美系AI和思维定势上与大陆对立的台系AI相关股暴跌，台积电跌超13%，芯片定制大佬博通也受到波及跌超17%，“小英伟达”ALAB跌超28%。年初提到的AI应用层部分股票逆市上涨，Adobe小涨0.74%，CRM涨近4%，SNOW也收下小涨。2025年AI的应用将全面超越AI基础层的回报，这个判断昨晚表现得尤为明显。另外遭罪的无疑是暴涨数日的核电板块了，由于AI算力对电力需求而暴涨的核电股，在Deepseek带来的极高效运作下被解读为短期电力需求被预判过度了，核技术股均跌超20%，美铀均跌超10%，今天澳铀也将遭遇血洗。上周中本人一波止盈离场既是巧合也是对本周财报的悲观预判，没想到周一竟然能躲过一劫，正好等待回调后的抄底。美元指数小幅走低，金价跌超1%回到2740平台，油价继续大跌，美油回到了73平台，依然处于去年宽幅震荡区间。恐慌指数因标普500大跌而暴力拉升，盘间一度涨近50%，期货收盘收涨近7%。外汇方面日元走势较强，美元保持平稳，但盘间经历了暴涨暴跌，美元人民币变动不大。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 高级分析师

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2025年1月20日，特朗普重返白宫，其主张的“美国优先”政策不仅引发了全球资本市场震荡，更可能重塑美国金融监管格局。其中，银行业的核心监管框架——巴塞尔协议III的“终局”规则（Basel III Endgame）成为焦点，特朗普政策与巴塞尔协议实施之间的复杂博弈也就此展开。巴塞尔协议III自2008年金融危机后推出，旨在通过提高资本充足率、优化风险权重计算等方式增强银行业抗风险能力。2023年，美联储提出“终局”规则草案，要求大型银行额外增加资本金。当时，这一提案遭到银行业强烈反对，认为其过度严苛且会削弱美国银行的国际竞争力。按原提案，全球系统重要性银行（G-SIBs）的普通股一级资本需增加9%，而资产规模超过2500亿美元的银行面临更严格资本要求。而美国银行业普遍已经持有超额资本，根据德勤2025年最新报告，截至2024年第二季度，区域性银行的商业地产贷款占风险资本比例高达199%，远超大型银行的54%，凸显其资本压力。

特朗普政府历来主张放松金融监管。其政策团队已表态支持修订巴塞尔协议III规则，降低资本要求。2024年9月，美联储副主席Michael Barr宣布新提案，取消部分“镀金”标准（即严于国际规则的要求），并保留分级监管模式。这些调整直接回应了银行业的诉求，例如：1.住宅地产和零售业务风险权重下调，减轻中小银行负担；2.税收抵免权益融资风险权重降低，鼓励绿色能源等政策支持领域；3.操作风险资本计算简化，按净收入而非总收入计量。但是，特朗普的政策纲领与巴塞尔协议的实施方向还是存在多重冲突，主要体现在以下三方面：1. 贸易保护主义 vs 全球监管协调特朗普主张对进口商品征收10%基准关税，对个别国家征收更高关税，并推动制造业回流。施罗德报告指出，这类政策可能推高企业融资成本，间接影响银行信贷质量。与此同时，巴塞尔协议要求各国监管标准趋同，但美国若单方面放宽规则，可能引发“逐底竞争”。例如，欧盟已推迟实施巴塞尔3.1至2026年，英国则推迟到2027年1月1日，英格兰银行审慎监管局（PRA）修订后的规则对资本要求影响低于1%，并强调“公平竞争环境”，暗示可能跟随美国调整。

2. 利率政策干预 vs 银行业净息差压力特朗普曾批评美联储加息政策，主张更“宽松的货币政策”。市场预计2025年美国联邦基金利率或降至3.5%-3.75%，净息差（NIM）预计从2024年的3.15%下滑至3%。利率下行虽可能刺激抵押贷款需求，但存款成本高企（2025年计息存款成本预计达2.03%）将挤压银行利润。若特朗普施压美联储进一步降息，银行业需在贷款定价与存款争夺间寻找新平衡。3. 国内优先战略 vs 小银行生存困境特朗普强调“本土经济优先”，利好以国内业务为主的小型银行。美国小盘股（如罗素2500指数成分股）76%收入来自本土，而标普500公司仅59%。区域性银行因商业地产风险敞口集中，2025年净核销率或升至0.66%，创十年新高。若特朗普政府推动减税（如延长2017年税改）并放松社区银行监管，或为小银行注入喘息空间。特朗普的回归，标志着美国金融监管从“风险防范”转向“增长优先”，美国对巴塞尔协议的调整可能加剧国际监管分化。巴塞尔协议III的“终局”规则修订，既是政治博弈的结果，也是银行业自救的契机。然而，放松监管的代价可能是长期风险的积累——若经济衰退与信贷质量恶化叠加，2008年的危机阴影或将重现。对于全球银行业而言，如何在合规与盈利间找到动态平衡，将是未来十年的终极命题。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Christine Li | GO Markets 墨尔本中文部

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早在2020年特朗普第一个任期内，美国就提出了关于对TikTok的限制措施，到2023年美国举行针对TikTok的听证会，再到2024年拜登直接签署法案要求字节跳动在2025年1月19号前剥离TikTok的美国业务，也就是要求字节跳动将TikTok业务出售给非中国企业，否则“不卖就禁用”，TikTok这一路走来不可谓不坎坷。现在时限已到，对于拜登政府留下的这个“烂摊子”，特朗普上任后却是没有立刻执行，而是宣布了再给TikTok75天的时间。后续会怎么发展，以及TikTok事件这一路走来都给社会各界造成了什么影响，我们今天就一起来看一看。

特朗普在第一任期内，就多次强调TikTok对国家安全的潜在威胁，要求其美国业务出售给本土企业。拜登执政期间也多次针对TikTok做出了严厉措施。如今，特朗普重新掌权，延续了对中国科技公司的强硬态度，但提出了“75天整改期”的方案，为TikTok提供了一定的喘息空间。那为什么特朗普作为第一个坚定提出这一论点的人，反而在四年后的今天选择了“各退一步“，可能是有以下几个方面的考量：首先是提出这一限制政策的初衷，出于对技术和数据的敏感性，美国担心TikTok收集的用户数据可能被用于国家安全目的，所以早在限制法案提出时，尽管还没有全面限制。但美国就已经严厉禁止了联邦人员在政府发放的设备上使用TikTok和其他中国社交平台。而为什么现在特朗普的态度缓和了，则是考虑到了用户与市场的依赖性，现在TikTok在美国的月活跃用户数超过1.5亿，其内容生态已深度融入年轻人的日常生活，彻底禁令很可能引发社会反弹。尽管特朗普给了TikTok喘息的机会，但是前段日子随着拜登政府给的1月19号期限越来越近，TikTok面临的不确定性使得大量美国用户开始转向中国其他社交媒体，例如小红书等。数据表明自2025年1月以来，小红书的美国用户增长了约45%，这些用户不仅给这类社交媒体带来了全球化内容的多样性，也凸显了中国社交媒体在海外的竞争潜力。尽管有很大一部分的用户涌入了中国的市场，但TikTok的潜在禁令也使美国科技企业获得了发展短视频业务的窗口期。例如，Instagram的Reels和YouTube的Shorts近期获得了更多市场份额。Meta报告显示，其短视频用户日均观看时间增长了23%，显然这一趋势受益于TikTok用户的不安定情绪。

TikTok事件的反复折射出中美科技脱钩的加速趋势。美国政府对中国科技企业的严格审查，以及TikTok的整改要求，都表明了在核心技术领域，两国间的合作信任度进一步降低。这将影响其他中国科技公司在美业务的发展前景，例如阿里巴巴和腾讯这些企业。那说完TikTok一路走来的经历和现在面临的局面，未来的TikTok就只面临了两种结局：做出整改满足限制法案的要求，特朗普放宽限制，TikTok在美国获得批准；或者没有整改，特朗普全面禁止。如果说TikTok不管是由于自己整改还是特朗普放宽政策得到了在美国继续发展的批准，那么在很大程度上会帮助市场反弹和提振信心，TikTok在美业务的稳定性将使用户信任恢复，广告商也会继续投入其生态系统。并且这一政策放宽可能被视为对中国科技企业的一种默许，从而鼓励更多中国企业探索海外市场，加速中国社交媒体全球化。但对于美国本土的短视频市场会带来进一步的竞争加剧，挑战Meta，Youtube等企业的市场份额。那如果TikTok继续拒绝整改，而特朗普态度也依旧坚定，那么TikTok在美国被全面禁止也会带来一系列的后果。就比如持续当前用户转移的趋势，用户转移到中国其他社交媒体或美国本土平台，在这一过程当中美国民众尤其是青少年群体的反抗情绪也会进一步被激化。并且美国如果“不留情面”对中国在美企业全面打压，那中国市场也有可能做出反制措施。比如限制美国科技公司例如苹果等企业的在华业务，鼓励中国本土的大力发展和美国企业形成竞争制衡的关系。TikTok事件不仅仅是一家企业面临政府指控的问题，它反映出了中美之间的紧张关系和两国之前对立的信息科技发展布局，而目前来看TikTok能否突破困境，将是决定全球社交媒体竞争的下一个关键节点。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Yoyo Ma | GO Markets 墨尔本中文部