ข่าวสารตลาด & มุมมองเชิงลึก

US equity markets snapped a record-breaking run of up sessions in Thursdays trading, with the Dow Jones looking set to close in the green for a 14 th straight session (for the first time since the Dow’s inception), before seeing a sell-off on rising yields after a report that the BoJ is looking to tweak their YCC at their meeting today. FX Markets USD bounced back from its post-FOMC weakness with the Dollar supported by rising US Treasury yields after beats in US GDP and employment data and the aforementioned hawkish report regarding the BoJ. US 10yr yields surged over the 4% level, an area recently that has marked the top in yields.

With Powell stressing that the Fed would be “data dependent” going forward as to rate increases the hot US data saw traders shifting hawkishly on rates, this saw the US Dollar Index surge through the 101 level, hitting 2-week highs and looking to test the major resistance at 102. Todays PCE Index figure will be another piece in the Fed puzzle, and is likely to move the USD and yields on it’s release. EUR pushed higher early in the session until the ECB meeting where the market took comments from President Lagarde as dovish, seeing EURUSD hit a low of 1.0967, breaking through the support at 1.10, holding below with 1.10 now looking like resistance..

The ECB did hike rates 25bp as expected but it was Lagarde’s comments that she does not believe that more work needs to be done, given the current data, implying future meetings could be a hike or a hold, that saw EUR moving. Later today, some key German inflation figures will be released, EUR volatility should be expected. JPY saw big gains on Thursday, with USDJPY sliding from highs of 141.31 to hit a low of 138.75 after reports in Nikkei that the BoJ are to discuss a YCC tweak at today’s pivotal monetary policy meeting.

Noted however, similar rumours have been reported on in the recent past, so really nothing new. The overreaction in JPY shows how jittery FX traders are going into today’s meeting, it is likely we’ll see some big moves in the Yen in today’s session as well, whichever way the BoJ goes. Calendar:

USD was mostly firmer in Tuesday’s session as a mixed equity markets saw some slight risk-off conditions. Also support USD was rates markets shifting hawkishly (September meeting now pricing a 16% chance of a hike) ahead of Jackson Hole and Fed Chair Powell speaking on Friday. Fed member Barkin spoke but added little new, as he noted consumer spending and economic strength make it possible the US economy could reaccelerate before inflation cools.

DXY hit a high of 103.710, pushing slightly above July and last week’s high and resistance area after testing support at 103.00 earlier in the session. EUR and GBP were both lower against the USD to varying degrees, EUR was the G10 underperformer with EURUSD hitting a low of 1.0834 and EURGBP testing the bottom of its recent range and major support at 0.8500. Both EUR and GBP traders have key PMI figures to navigate today, with readings in manufacturing and services for both currencies.

AUD, NZD and JPY were all firmer against the USD, with NZD outperforming, seeing AUDNZD dip below the psychological 1.0800 level briefly. Both NZDUSD and AUDUSD managed to hold their major support levels at 0.5900 and 0.6400 respectively. With Kiwi and Aussie traders having NZ retail sales and Australian flash PMIs to look forward to today.

USDJPY dropped 146.00, trading in a range between 146.39-145.50 ahead of Japan’s preliminary PMIs, JPY supported by a double top and forming in USDJPY. Despite overall USD strength, with some help from a soured risk sentiment, XAUUSD attempted to retake the 1902 resistance/support level. The move however was strongly rebuked as sellers entered the market at that key level, holding XAUUSD in its 2-week range.

Todays Calendar:

USD was marginally lower in Tuesdays session, trading in a tight range amid thin newsflow and market participants awaiting the key June CPI reading released later today. After breaking the psychological 102 level in Mondays session, DXY tested a re-entry into the range but found the previous support at 102 acting as stiff resistance, seeing DXY finish at the session lows around 101.65. NZD was the G10 underperformer with NZDUSD hitting a low of 0.6168 where it found support at Mondays lows as the currency traded defensively ahead of the RBNZ rate decision today.

Futures markets are expecting rates will be held at 5.5%, confirming the RBNZ as being the first developed Central Bank to reach the end of its tightening cycle. AUD was marginally firmer against the USD, after initially struggling in tandem with the Kiwi before later reversing losses on a USD pull-back. AUDNZD moving higher, back above the mid-price of it’s 2023 range.

Safe-havens, JPY and CHF, saw gains despite risk-on equity markets on some defensive positioning ahead of big data releases later in the week. USDCHF retraced from a peak of 0.8863 to a low of 0.8791 with the cross pair hitting its lowest level since January 2021. USDJPY traded between 141.46-140.17, continuing its strong down move after testing the 145 “intervention” zone last week.

USDJPY appears one of those most at risk of any upside surprises in the US CPI data given its sharp decline over recent sessions. GBPUSD saw gains with Cable breaking it’s 1.2850 resistance level, surpassing 1.2900 to a peak of 1.2934, its highest level in over a year. A strong UK Labour market figure saw futures markets re-price a 50bp hike as the favoured outcome of the BoE policy meeting on August 3 rd, driving gains in the Pound.

EUR was flat with EURUSD just about clawing back above 1.10 at the US session end amid a USD pullback, with EURUSD trading in a narrow range despite a weak German ZEW survey. CAD saw slight gains against the USD, bolstered by the continued upward momentum in crude oil with WTI crude settling at 10-week highs and seeing USDCAD break its 4h trendline. CAD traders have the BoC rate decision later today to look forward to, where after a five-month ‘pause’, the consensus looks for rates to be lifted by 25bps for the second straight meeting, taking its key rate to 5.00%

USD was higher on Thursday, with The Dollar Index bouncing back strongly from Wednesdays decline, breaking through the resistance level of 103.60 to touch on the weekly highs at the big 104 level and hitting overbought levels on the daily RSI. Market risk-off, rising yields and a lower than forecast jobless claims figure giving the USD a boost as good news is bad news for equities which in turn is good news for the USD (if that makes sense!) Looking ahead to Friday’s session, all attention will be on Fed Chair Powell speaking at Jackson Hole 14:05 GMT, we are sure to see some volatility in USD as traders look for hawkish or dovish clues from the Fed chair. AUD, NZD, and CAD all saw losses to varying degrees against the USD on broad risk-off sentiment resulting in haven flows to the USD.

CAD was the “least worst” with a rally in oil prices supporting CAD somewhat. Risk sensitive AUD and NZD were the underperformers with both AUDUSD and NZDUSD giving back all their Wednesday gains and then some. AUDUSD and NZDUSD both sliding to test their major support levels at 0.6400 and 0.5900 respectively.

Again, these will be key levels to watch as we head into Jackson Hole. EUR and JPY both also saw losses against the USD, but not as deep as the more risk sensitive cyclical currencies above. EURUSD managing to defend the psychological 1.0800 level, which was the support level set in Wednesday’s session and also the 200 Day MA level.

USDJPY held beneath 146.00, but still well above the key 145 level, rising US yields pushing this pair higher, but held back somewhat by the safe haven status of the Yen. In risk events for today and the weekend, all eyes will be on the Jackson Hole Symposium, where the main event will be comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, also on the docket will be other Fed speakers and ECB President Lagarde.

The US Dollar was firmer Thursday, continuing its bounce from extreme oversold levels, the DXY peaking at 100.97, just short of the major resistance at the big 101 figure. A much lower than expected initial jobless claims figure saw a jump in US treasury yields, propelling the USD higher with the DXY having it biggest up day since May. AUD was the G10 outperformer, holding its own against the resurgent USD and easily outperforming its peers.

A hot jobs report where employment increased 32.6k vs an expected 15.4k and an unexpected fall in the unemployment rate, saw odds of a RBA rate hike next month jump to 43%, pushing the AUD higher. NZD underperformed on general risk aversion, seeing AUDNZD push higher into the overvalued “sell zone”. JPY saw losses, with USDJPY continuing it’s bounce off the 50% fib retracement at 137.30, pushing briefly through the psychological 140 level.

USD saw highs of 140.49 before finding selling at the 50-day SMA, pulling back to find support at its previous bullish trend line. Japanese CPI was released earlier today where a reading 0f 3.3% came in right as expected, JPY traders will be eyeing next weeks pivotal BoJ meeting where tweaks to their yield curve control policy are expected. EUR and GBP saw similar losses vs the USD, EUR initially boosted by a not as weak as anticipated flash Eurozone consumer confidence figure which coincided with a miss in US existing home sales.

Though it soon reversed to the downside with EURUSD hitting a low of 1.1119, managing to hold the key 1.1100 level. GBP continued to feel the effects of a softer UK CPI reading on Wednesday, with GBPUSD testing buyers around the key 1.2850 level, after losing sight of a Fib retracement level that helped contain declines on Wednesday. Today’s economic calendar is very light ahead of pivotal Central Bank meetings next week, with the only tier one release being only UK Retail Sales.

USD rallied modestly into month end with DXY pushing to the top of its recent range to again test the big 102 resistance level. The data highlight out of the US was the Chicago PMI figure which rose from the prior 41.5 to 42.8, but missing expectations of 43.3. in FedSpeak, Governor Goolsbee added little new from the FOMC statement last week stating he is “not sure when the Fed will be done raising rates and they are making good progress but will let the data guide them” and they may or may not hike in September. EUR was weighed on by the Dollar strength with EURUSD dipping below the psychological 1.10 level early in the session before finding support at the lower trend line.

A bounce on hot inflation data and a strong GDP out of the Eurozone saw EURUSD reclaim the 1.10 level, albeit unconvincingly. Currently, markets are pricing in around a 25-30% probability of a 25bp hike in September, with the ECB being “data dependant” any and all news regarding inflation out of the EU should see an impact on EUR. JPY was markedly weaker to start the week following on from the BoJ meeting on Friday.

During the Asian session yesterday, the BoJ offered to buy an unlimited amount of JGBs at a fixed rate in an unscheduled announcement in an effort to defend their new “flexible” yield control limits, a feeling of panic at the Japanese Central Bank saw selling in JPY, with USDJPY heading above 142, looking likely to test the BoJ resolve at the “intervention” zone of 145 in the near future. AUD and NZD predominantly outperformed, with AUD bring the clear winner on more talk from China regarding future stimulus, with AUDUSD rising through and holding the big figure at 0.6700. AUD traders also positioning for the RBA policy decision due today at 14:30 AEST, markets are currently split between a hike or hold following the lower than expected Aussie CPI data last week, with futures showing a 15.5% of a hike, but economists polled have it as much closer odds so could be an exciting meeting.

Todays Calendar below: