ข่าวสารตลาด & มุมมองเชิงลึก

USD traded in a tight range on Tuesday despite a big move higher in treasury yields after a beat in US retail sales figures, the headline rising 0.7% M/M vs 0.3% expected. DXY whipsawing within a contained range, hitting a high of 106.52 on the initial reaction to the retail sales figure, but quickly paring gains to hit a low of 106.02. Fed member Barkin Fed’s also spoke noting that the FOMC will have a good debate when asked about the chance of a Fed hike at heir November meeting.

Looking ahead, Fed speakers are set to continue, ahead of Chair Powell on Thursday, also any further geopolitical updates will be closely watched by USD traders. AUD and NZD were divergent on Tuesday, with the Aussie the G10 outperformer and the Kiwi the laggard. AUDUSD continuing its bounce off the major support at 0.6286 to rally to a high of 0.6380, helped along by what was seen as hawkish RBA minutes released during the session.

NZDUSD on the other hand struggled after a not as hot as expected NZ CPI, NZDUSD dipping to test the October lows at 0.5871 before finding some support.. AUDNZD surged higher, retaking the key 1.07 level and within a whisker of also breaching 1.08 JPY faltered against the USD despite seeing strength early in the session after a Bloomberg report that the BoJ was considering revising their inflation forecasts higher. The surge in the Yen swiftly faded with yield differentials pushing USDJPY higher, to hover just below the 150 “intervention zone” Today’s calendar below:

USD surged higher on Thursday, with DXY having its second biggest daily gain since March, reclaiming the big figure at 106 and holding above its trendline support. Hotter than expected CPI readings with the M/M rising 0.4% (exp. 0.3%) and Y/Y coming in at 3.7%, above the 3.6% consensus got the Dollar rally going, but a dismal US 30yr auction later in the session saw long end yields surging higher, further boosting the Greenback. Cyclical currencies AUD, NZD and GBP were the underperformers, driven lower by a sour risk sentiment and USD strength rather than anything currency specific.

AUDUSD and NZDUSD tumbling to 1-week lows and nearing the bottoms of their recent ranges of 0.6308 and 0.5926, respectively, from earlier peaks near the top of the range of 0.6430 and 0.6025. GBPUSD also tumbled, breaking below 1.2200 amid the aforementioned negative risk sentiment and surging USD. There were some mixed UK macro releases and BoE members highlighting the extent of possible rate hikes to come but this had little effect as GBPUSD fell to a session low of 1.2173 a whisker above Monday’s low of 1.2163.

Gold finished the session down but considering USD strength and surging yields held up admirably as haven flows helped lessen the damage. XAUUSD also finding some support at the 78.6 Fib level at 1866. Today’s calendar is fairly light, Chinese CPI and US consumer sentiment being the highlights.

The ongoing sell-off in the US bond market has set the tone in FX and wider risk markets on Tuesday in an otherwise very slow news day. The USD has continued to grind higher against the higher yield backdrop with the US Dollar Index (DXY) adding to Mondays gains pushing above the 106 level, tracking yields higher. The Fed’s recent “higher for longer” statement still supporting yields, worries of a US government shutdown looming and more hawkish comments from the Fed’s Kashkari on Monday also giving a tailwind to yields and the US dollar.

EURUSD saw further declines, first breaking support at the May 31 swing low, before also dropping below the psychological 1.06 level, with the major support of the Jan/Feb/Mar lows at 1.0521 very much in play. USD strength was the main driver but also weighing on the EUR was weak world merchandise trade volumes data, the eurozone suffers from a declining trade environment, as does the Euro. GBPUSD also continued to decline after last week’s surprise hold from the Bank of England.

Ongoing USD strength, another hit to the cyclical GBP is the softening risk sentiment in global markets amid a possible US government shutdown. GBPUSD breaching the 1.22 support level and looking little in the way of technical support levels can be expected before the 1.2000/2075 area. USDJPY stalled from its recent grind higher after climbing just shy of the 149.00 handle, another round of the familiar jawboning from Japan’s Finance Minister Suzuki holding it in place for now, JPY also helped somewhat by the weakening risk environment seeing haven flows to the Yen.

The USD sell off continued Thursday moving in lockstep with yields again ahead of today’s key non-farm payroll figure. Unemployment claims came inline and had a limited impact as it was yields driving action in the USD. DXY dropped to close at the lows of 106.32 from earlier highs of 106.86.

So far this looks like a technical pullback from overbought levels, with a strong support at the lower trendline around 106.10 as traders turn to watch todays NFP figure. EUR was propped up once again by USD weakness, with EURUSD testing the key support at 1.05 several times before rallying to hit a high of 1.0558. ECB members de Guindos and Kazimir spoke, with the former saying the current level of rates will help tame inflation, but noted the ECB is data dependent and it is premature to discuss rate cuts.

While Kazimir noted that the September EZ core inflation confirmed ECB expectations, and reiterated he believes the last rate hike was the final one. JPY firmed against the USD with USDJPY dropping below 149.00 led by the softening of US Treasury yields. Traders seemingly still wary of a push above 150.00 seeing potential Yen intervention following the “flash crash” on Tuesday when the pair poked above this level.

AUD and NZD were bid with outperformance in both currencies, bolstered by the improved risk sentiment and lower US yields. AUDUSD rose above 0.6350 and NZDUSD rose above 0.5950, the Kiwi marginally outperforming the Aussie seeing the AUDNZD cross rate drop below 1.07 again, the pair has found some short-term resistance at the 1.07 level this week with cross make a few attempts to break and hold but so far being rejected. Today’s calendar is dominated by the always exciting NFP, a hot figure here will test the markets pricing of interest rates and should see the yield/USD rally recommence.

EURUSD is once again at an interesting technical level coming into key US data this week. After holding firm in a rising channel for most of 2023, price fell away in early September. This coincided with the price also falling below the 200 SMA which also acted as support multiple times in 2023 so far.

After bouncing nicely on the first horizontal support zone, we saw this level fail last week. A couple of days of positive trading sees price back up at this key zone, where we will be waiting to see if that horizontal support flips to resistance to bounce price back south and continue the downward trend. With the US interest rate decision out on Wednesday, we could be in for some volatility on this pair.

The market is currently predicting a 99% change of a continued pause, keeping rates at 5.5%. Any deviation from this is likely to cause some big movements in the USD, and this pair. With mixed inflation data out lately and oil prices soaring, this will be an important decision for the US Fed.

If the 1% probability occurs and the Fed hikes rate, this will likely see strength form in the dollar. With price currently at some key technical levels going into big economic data, it could be an interesting trading period for EURUSD this week.

EURUSD is heading into today’s knife-edge ECB rate decision lacking any real direction after Wednesdays CPI inspired choppy performance. Markets are split on today’s ECB rate decision with money markets pricing around a 65% chance of a 25bps rate hike, but a slight majority of economists polled by Bloomberg expecting a hold. Against this backdrop traders seem to be taking a wait and see approach with EURUSD unchanged, trading in a tight range in Thursdays APAC session and so far in EU session.

This will change at 12:15pm GMT as the ECB announces its rate decision, with a split market there will be almost certain volatility in EURUSD whichever way the ECB goes, with markets pricing in a 65% chance of a hike the risk on balance does seem skewed to the downside for EURUSD. A lot will also depend on the guidance released with the rate decision and the press conference 30 minutes after. No hike and a statement anything less than ultra hawkish will likely see a sharp drop in EURUSD initially, possibly testing the June and September lows support zone just under 1.07.

This will be a key area to watch after the initial reaction. A Hike of 25bp will likely see an initial pop in EURUSD, but attention will then turn to the statement. The ECB is expected to stick with the data dependent narrative as to its future moves, but it will be hints of possible further hikes (hawkish) or hints that they may be at the peak (dovish) which will likely drive the Euro once the initial reaction is done.

Even if we get the 25bp hike today money markets are pricing in 23bp of hikes this year already, this should cap any sustained rise in the Euro after a likely initial spike higher unless the statement hints strongly of more to come, which against a backdrop of a slowing EU economy seems unlikely. The key level to watch to the upside is the psychological 1.08 level, which would also bring EURUSD up to its trendline resistance and would see hard going for further gains unless at a technical perspective. The ECB rate decision will be released at 12:15 GMT with the presser at 12:45 GMT.