The Kansas City Federal Reserve is set to host the 45 th Annual Symposium at Jackson Hole Lodge in Wyoming’s Grand Teton National Park. Some of the countries and world’s most important central bankers, economists, and academics will be meeting to discuss the biggest issues facing the global economy. The key issue on the agenda is of “Reassessing Constraints on the Economy and Policy.” All eyes will be on Jerome Powell, with the chairman of the Federal Reserve expected to speak on Thursday and provide an update on the proceedings of the conference.
At last year’s event Powell was caught out after stating that inflation was transitory, only to see it become a huge long-lasting issue. Therefore, he may try and correct this perception and portray a much more conservative attitude. There is also a view from some analysts that the Fed came across too dovish in the July meeting which led to the market rally.
At this stage the market has priced in a 75-bps increase at the September meeting, however this may change. With key inflation measures slowing somewhat, the question will be whether the fed continue its aggressive interest rate hikes or eases their policy to avoid a potential recession. The market will be hoping that Powell provides some clues for what the Fed plans to do after rates peak.
They will be hoping for clarity over whether the bank will hold the rates at the high levels for some time or lower them straight away to avoid a recession. Market participants should be weary that although Jackson Hole may provide some important context to the future rates, no official policies will be set. The conference will most likely have a relatively small impact on the market, it still has the potential to provide some volatility for both equities and currency if significant attitude shifts are expressed.
The USD is currently at 5 year highs and with some positive catalysts for the currency, it may continue to rise further if the Fed continues to be aggressive in its rate hikes.
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