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O anúncio do cessar-fogo de 8 de abril e as discussões paralelas em torno de uma trégua de 45 dias não resolveram a interrupção do Estreito de Ormuz. Por enquanto, eles limitaram o pior cenário possível, mas o tráfego de petroleiros permanece em uma fração dos níveis normais e a demanda do Irã por taxas de trânsito sinaliza uma mudança estrutural, não temporária.
O que começou como um conflito regional se tornou um choque energético global, e a questão para os mercados não é mais se Ormuz foi interrompida, mas como a interrupção muda permanentemente o piso de preços do petróleo.
Principais conclusões
- Cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia (bpd) de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos normalmente passam pelo Estreito de Ormuz, entre o Irã e Omã, o equivalente a cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo.
- Isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de estoque. Os mercados de petróleo dependem do rendimento contínuo, não do armazenamento estático.
- Se a interrupção persistir além de algumas semanas, o Brent poderá passar de um pico de curto prazo para um choque de preços mais amplo, com risco de estagflação.
- O tráfego de petroleiros pelo estreito caiu de cerca de 135 navios por dia para menos de 15 no pico da interrupção, uma redução de aproximadamente 85%, com mais de 150 embarcações ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas.
- Um cessar-fogo de duas semanas foi anunciado em 8 de abril, com negociações de trégua de 45 dias em andamento. O Irã sinalizou separadamente uma demanda por taxas de trânsito em embarcações que usam o estreito, o que, se formalizado, representaria um piso geopolítico permanente nos custos de energia.
- Os mercados começaram a se afastar do crescimento e da exposição à tecnologia para nomes de energia e defesa, refletindo a visão de que o petróleo elevado está se tornando um custo estrutural em vez de um prêmio de risco temporário.
O ponto de estrangulamento de petróleo mais crítico do mundo
O Estreito de Ormuz movimenta cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos, o equivalente a cerca de 20% do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo. Com a demanda global de petróleo em torno de 104 milhões de bpd e a capacidade não utilizada limitada, o mercado já estava fortemente equilibrado antes da última escalada.
O estreito também é um corredor crítico para o gás natural liquefeito. Cerca de 290 milhões de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaram pela rota todos os dias, em média, em 2024, representando cerca de 20% do comércio global de GNL, com os mercados asiáticos como principal destino.
A Agência Internacional de Energia (IEA) descreveu Ormuz como o ponto de estrangulamento do trânsito de petróleo mais importante do mundo, observando que mesmo interrupções parciais podem desencadear grandes movimentos de preços. O petróleo Brent subiu acima de USD 100 o barril, refletindo tanto a rigidez física quanto o aumento do prêmio de risco geopolítico.
Tanques ociosos enquanto os fluxos diminuem
Os dados de frete e seguro agora apontam para problemas em tempo real. Relata-se que mais de 85 grandes transportadores de petróleo bruto estão presos no Golfo Pérsico, enquanto mais de 150 navios foram ancorados, desviados ou atrasados à medida que os operadores reavaliam a segurança e a cobertura do seguro. Isso deixaria cerca de 120 milhões a 150 milhões de barris de petróleo bruto parados no mar.
Esses volumes representam apenas seis a sete dias de produção normal de Ormuz, ou pouco mais de um dia de consumo global de petróleo.
Os dados atualizados de transporte e seguro agora confirmam que mais de 150 embarcações foram ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas, acima das 85 relatadas inicialmente. Os 1,3 dias de cobertura do consumo global de petróleo bruto ocioso continuam sendo a restrição vinculativa: isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de armazenamento, e o cessar-fogo ainda não se traduziu em uma produtividade significativamente restaurada.
Um mercado baseado no fluxo, não no armazenamento
Os mercados de petróleo funcionam em movimento contínuo. Refinarias, plantas petroquímicas e cadeias de suprimentos globais são calibradas para entregas estáveis ao longo de rotas marítimas previsíveis. Quando os fluxos passam por um ponto de estrangulamento que carrega cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo são interrompidos, o sistema pode passar do equilíbrio ao déficit em poucos dias.
A capacidade de produção não utilizada, amplamente concentrada na OPEP, é estimada em apenas 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd. Isso fica bem aquém dos volumes em risco se os fluxos de Ormuz forem severamente interrompidos.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riscos de inflação e repercussões macro
O impacto inflacionário de um choque de petróleo normalmente chega em ondas. Preços mais altos de combustível e energia podem elevar a inflação global rapidamente, à medida que os custos de gasolina, diesel e energia aumentam.
Com o tempo, custos mais altos de energia podem passar por frete, alimentos, manufatura e serviços. Se a interrupção persistir, a combinação de inflação elevada e crescimento mais lento pode aumentar o risco de um ambiente estagflacionário e deixar os bancos centrais enfrentando uma difícil troca.
Sem compensação fácil, um sistema com pouca folga
O que torna o episódio atual particularmente agudo é a falta de folga no sistema global.
A oferta e a demanda globais de cerca de 103 milhões a 104 milhões de bpd deixam pouca reserva quando um ponto de estrangulamento que movimenta quase 20 milhões de bpd, ou cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo, é comprometido. A capacidade não utilizada estimada de 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd, principalmente dentro da OPEP, cobriria apenas uma fração dos volumes em risco.
Rotas alternativas, incluindo oleodutos que contornam Ormuz e reencaminhamentos marítimos, só podem compensar parcialmente os fluxos perdidos e, geralmente, com custos mais altos e prazos de entrega mais longos.
Conclusão
Até que o trânsito pelo Estreito de Ormuz seja restaurado e visto como confiavelmente seguro, é provável que os fluxos globais de petróleo permaneçam prejudicados e os prêmios de risco elevados. Para investidores, formuladores de políticas e tomadores de decisão corporativos, a questão central é se o petróleo pode se mover para onde precisa ir, todos os dias, sem interrupção.
The US midterm elections are coming up next week on 8 November and have the potential to have a big say on the direction and volatility of the US and global markets. All the 435 seats in the House of representatives will be decided upon. Currently, the makeup of the house includes 220 Democrats, 212 republicans and 3 vacant seats.
The senate is just as intriguing with the senate essentially split 50 – 50, with the Democrats having the support of 2 independents. This means that Vice President, Kamala Harris has the deciding opinion on bills that get put forward. It also means that the Republicans only need one more seat to take control of the senate.
This is crucial because it means if the Republicans take control, then bills put forward by Democrats will face a much tougher road to turn into law. It is also possible that the Republicans could take both the senate and the house of representatives which would make it almost impossible for the Democrats and Joe Biden to pass any legislation. Impact on the Markets When US elections occur, there tends to be a decrease in performance before the election and increase in volatility around the US markets.
After the election there is usually a period of growth for equities. The issue at the forefront of all American’s minds is still inflation and the new government will deal with it. A major impact on the economy may be the government’s ability to deal with issues surrounding the economy such as inflation, a recession, or other fiscal matters.
For instance, a gridlocked congress will restrict the President’s ability come up with policies that the Republicans will ok. The president may have to resort to using Executive orders which are more limited in scope and done without support of congress. More responsibility might be taken by the Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy to fight a potential recession without fiscal support.
This bodes well for the equities market and dampen some of the strength of the US dollar. From a more ideological perspective, Biden’s push for environmental and sustainability reform. Biden and the democrats have pushed forward policies that have supported these developments.
Therefore, money flow away from these sectors if that support gets pushed away. Ultimately, the midterm elections will likely have some effect on both the direction and volatility of the market. A swing towards the Republicans may see a shift in volatility and sentiment across the economy.
Another day, another hike. On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve announced its latest policy decision to raise its interest rates from 3.25% to 4%, to its highest level since January 2008. On Thursday, it was the Bank of England's turn to announce its decision.
As expected, the central bank raised its interest rates by 0.75% to 4%. It was the highest single increase since 1989. Inflation Bank of England highlighted that its biggest job is to bring inflation back to its 2% target.
The bank expects inflation to rise in Q4 but start falling from early next year. ''Inflation is too high. It is well above our 2% target. High energy, food and other bills are hitting people hard,'' the bank said in a statement. ''It’s our job to make sure that inflation returns to our 2% target.
This month we have raised our interest rate to 3%. In total, since December 2021, we have increased our interest rate from 0.1% to 3%.'' ''What will happen to interest rates will depend on what happens in the economy. At the moment, we expect inflation to fall sharply from the middle of next year.'' Economic outlook As for the economy, the central bank did not have the most positive outlook for the near future.
It now expects the recession to last for a prolonged period. ''There has been a material tightening in financial conditions, including the elevated path of market interest rates. In addition, high energy prices continue to weigh on spending, despite an assumption of some fiscal support for household energy bills over the next two years. As a result, the UK economy is expected to remain in recession throughout 2023 and 2024 H1, and GDP is expected to recover only gradually thereafter.'' Market reaction The Pound was weaker against all major currencies on Thursday, falling the most vs. the US Dollar.
Cable was down by around 1.93%, trading at 1.11771 level. The next Bank of England rate decision will be on 15th December.
Airbnb Inc. (NAS:ABNB) reported its latest financial results after the closing bell in the US on Tuesday. World’s second largest online travel company beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the quarter. Revenue reported at $2.884 billion (up by 29% year-over-year) vs. $2.852 billion expected.
EPS at $1.79 per share (up by 46% year-over-year) vs. $1.485 per share estimate. ''Q3 was our biggest and most profitable quarter ever despite geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds,'' Airbnb wrote in a letter to shareholders. ''In Q3 2022, we had nearly 100 million Nights and Experiences Booked, up 25 percent year-over-year, and $15.6 billion in Gross Booking Value, up 31 percent year-over-year (or 40% ex-FX). Revenue grew 29 percent year-over-year (or 36% ex-FX) to $2.9 billion—our highest quarter ever.'' ''We also had our most profitable quarter with net income of $1.2 billion, up 46 percent year-over-year, representing a 42 percent net income margin. Free cash flow of $960 million increased more than 80 percent from a year ago.
And, over the last twelve months, we generated $3.3 billion in FCF, representing a FCF margin of more than 40 percent. ''Our Q3 results demonstrate that Airbnb continues to drive growth and profitability at scale. And regardless of continued macro uncertainties, we believe we’re well positioned for the road ahead.'' The company expects revenue of between $1.80 billion to $1.88 billion in Q4, which represent growth of between 17% and 23% year-over-year. Shares of Airbnb were trading lower on Wednesday, despite beating Q3 estimates due to future outlook.
The stock was down by around 10% at $97.80 a share. Stock performance 1 month: -12.18% 3 months: -14.67% Year-to-date: -41.05% 1 year: -43.23% Airbnb price targets Morgan Stanley: $110 Mizuho: $125 Baird: $120 UBS: $112 Credit Suisse: $154 Goldman Sachs: $98 Piper Sandler: $110 Keybanc: $142 Jefferies: $138 Airbnb Inc. is the 208 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $63.27 billion. You can trade Airbnb Inc. (NAS:ABNB) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Airbnb Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Shares of Pfizer rise as Q3 earnings beat estimates Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE) reported its latest financial results for the third quarter before the opening bell on Tuesday in the US. The US pharmaceutical company reported revenue of $22.638 billion (down 6% year-over-year) vs. $21.072 billion expected. Earnings per share reported at $1.78 per share vs. $1.387 per share estimate.
David Denton, CFO of Pfizer commented on the results: ''Third-quarter results demonstrated commercial strength across many areas of our business but was somewhat obscured by the incredibly strong performance in the prior year. We saw strong operational performance this quarter from key brands such as Paxlovid and Eliquis, particularly in the U.S., as well as the continued impressive launch of Prevnar 20 for adults in the U.S. In addition, we continue to make progress toward our goal of adding at least $25 billion in risk adjusted 2030 revenues to Pfizer’s portfolio through business development.
Since we last reported earnings, we completed the acquisitions of Biohaven and Global Blood Therapeutics, each of which bring significant scientific breakthroughs to Pfizer and which present opportunities where we believe we can add great value.'' ''I look forward to continuing to execute on Pfizer’s strategies to deliver breakthroughs to patients and value to shareholders,'' Denton concluded. The stock was up by around 3% on Tuesday, trading at $47.94 a share. Stock performance 1 month: +7.85% 3 months: -3.50% Year-to-date: -18.80% 1 year: +5.50% Pfizer price targets Morgan Stanley: $50 Barclays: $44 SVB Leerink: $48 Wells Fargo: $55 Citigroup: $57 B of A Securities: $70 Pfizer is the 27 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $269.29 billion.
You can trade Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Pfizer Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) reported its latest delivery numbers for October on Tuesday. The Chinese electric vehicle company delivered 10,059 cars last month – up by 174.3% year-over-year. The deliveries in October consisted of: 5,979 premium smart electric SUV’s 4,080 premium smart electric sedans Production and deliveries were impacted by supply chain issues and other constraints caused by COVID-19 outbreaks in certain parts of China, according to the company.
NIO has delivered a total of 259,563 electric vehicles as of October 31, 2022. The stock made some gains on Tuesday, up by around 2% at $9.93 a share. Shares of NIO have plummeted by over 75% in the past year.
Stock performance 1 month: -40.68% 3 month: -50.82% Year-to-date: -68.67% 1 year: -75.97% NIO price targets Morgan Stanley: $31 HSBC: $28 Goldman Sachs: $56 Barclays: $34 Mizuho: $42 Citigroup: $31.3 B of A Securities: $26 UBS: $32 Barclays: $19 NIO is the 22 nd largest automaker in the world with a market cap of $16.56 billion. You can trade NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: NIO Inc., TardingView, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA) announced Q3 earnings results before the market open in the US on Wednesday. The world’s largest aerospace company reported revenue that missed analyst expectations at $15.956 billion (up by 4% year-over-year) vs. $17.911 billion estimate. The company reported a loss per share of -$6.18 per share vs. $0.132 earnings per share expected. "We continue to make important strides in our turnaround and remain focused on our performance," Dave Calhoun, Boeing President, and CEO said in a press release following the announcement. "We generated strong cash in the quarter and are on a solid path to achieving positive free cash flow for 2022.
At the same time, revenue and earnings were significantly impacted by losses on our fixed-price defense development programs. We're squarely focused on maturing these programs, mitigating risks and delivering for our customers and their important missions. We remain in a challenging environment and have more work ahead to drive stability, improve our performance and ensure we're consistently delivering on our commitments.
Despite the challenges, I'm proud of our team and the progress we've made to strengthen our company," Calhoun concluded. Shares of Boeing took a hit on after the announcement of the latest results. The stock was down by around 3% at $140.85 a share.
Stock performance 1 month: +6.50% 3 months: -8.95% Year-to-date: -29.41% 1 year: -31.21% Boeing price targets Credit Suisse: $98 Morgan Stanley: $233 Wells Fargo: $210 Benchmark: $200 RBC Capital: $200 JP Morgan: $188 Citigroup: $209 Boeing is the 147 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $83.94 billion. You can trade The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: The Boeing Company, TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap