Notícias de mercado & insights
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O anúncio do cessar-fogo de 8 de abril e as discussões paralelas em torno de uma trégua de 45 dias não resolveram a interrupção do Estreito de Ormuz. Por enquanto, eles limitaram o pior cenário possível, mas o tráfego de petroleiros permanece em uma fração dos níveis normais e a demanda do Irã por taxas de trânsito sinaliza uma mudança estrutural, não temporária.
O que começou como um conflito regional se tornou um choque energético global, e a questão para os mercados não é mais se Ormuz foi interrompida, mas como a interrupção muda permanentemente o piso de preços do petróleo.
Principais conclusões
- Cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia (bpd) de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos normalmente passam pelo Estreito de Ormuz, entre o Irã e Omã, o equivalente a cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo.
- Isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de estoque. Os mercados de petróleo dependem do rendimento contínuo, não do armazenamento estático.
- Se a interrupção persistir além de algumas semanas, o Brent poderá passar de um pico de curto prazo para um choque de preços mais amplo, com risco de estagflação.
- O tráfego de petroleiros pelo estreito caiu de cerca de 135 navios por dia para menos de 15 no pico da interrupção, uma redução de aproximadamente 85%, com mais de 150 embarcações ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas.
- Um cessar-fogo de duas semanas foi anunciado em 8 de abril, com negociações de trégua de 45 dias em andamento. O Irã sinalizou separadamente uma demanda por taxas de trânsito em embarcações que usam o estreito, o que, se formalizado, representaria um piso geopolítico permanente nos custos de energia.
- Os mercados começaram a se afastar do crescimento e da exposição à tecnologia para nomes de energia e defesa, refletindo a visão de que o petróleo elevado está se tornando um custo estrutural em vez de um prêmio de risco temporário.
O ponto de estrangulamento de petróleo mais crítico do mundo
O Estreito de Ormuz movimenta cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos, o equivalente a cerca de 20% do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo. Com a demanda global de petróleo em torno de 104 milhões de bpd e a capacidade não utilizada limitada, o mercado já estava fortemente equilibrado antes da última escalada.
O estreito também é um corredor crítico para o gás natural liquefeito. Cerca de 290 milhões de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaram pela rota todos os dias, em média, em 2024, representando cerca de 20% do comércio global de GNL, com os mercados asiáticos como principal destino.
A Agência Internacional de Energia (IEA) descreveu Ormuz como o ponto de estrangulamento do trânsito de petróleo mais importante do mundo, observando que mesmo interrupções parciais podem desencadear grandes movimentos de preços. O petróleo Brent subiu acima de USD 100 o barril, refletindo tanto a rigidez física quanto o aumento do prêmio de risco geopolítico.
Tanques ociosos enquanto os fluxos diminuem
Os dados de frete e seguro agora apontam para problemas em tempo real. Relata-se que mais de 85 grandes transportadores de petróleo bruto estão presos no Golfo Pérsico, enquanto mais de 150 navios foram ancorados, desviados ou atrasados à medida que os operadores reavaliam a segurança e a cobertura do seguro. Isso deixaria cerca de 120 milhões a 150 milhões de barris de petróleo bruto parados no mar.
Esses volumes representam apenas seis a sete dias de produção normal de Ormuz, ou pouco mais de um dia de consumo global de petróleo.
Os dados atualizados de transporte e seguro agora confirmam que mais de 150 embarcações foram ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas, acima das 85 relatadas inicialmente. Os 1,3 dias de cobertura do consumo global de petróleo bruto ocioso continuam sendo a restrição vinculativa: isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de armazenamento, e o cessar-fogo ainda não se traduziu em uma produtividade significativamente restaurada.
Um mercado baseado no fluxo, não no armazenamento
Os mercados de petróleo funcionam em movimento contínuo. Refinarias, plantas petroquímicas e cadeias de suprimentos globais são calibradas para entregas estáveis ao longo de rotas marítimas previsíveis. Quando os fluxos passam por um ponto de estrangulamento que carrega cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo são interrompidos, o sistema pode passar do equilíbrio ao déficit em poucos dias.
A capacidade de produção não utilizada, amplamente concentrada na OPEP, é estimada em apenas 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd. Isso fica bem aquém dos volumes em risco se os fluxos de Ormuz forem severamente interrompidos.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riscos de inflação e repercussões macro
O impacto inflacionário de um choque de petróleo normalmente chega em ondas. Preços mais altos de combustível e energia podem elevar a inflação global rapidamente, à medida que os custos de gasolina, diesel e energia aumentam.
Com o tempo, custos mais altos de energia podem passar por frete, alimentos, manufatura e serviços. Se a interrupção persistir, a combinação de inflação elevada e crescimento mais lento pode aumentar o risco de um ambiente estagflacionário e deixar os bancos centrais enfrentando uma difícil troca.
Sem compensação fácil, um sistema com pouca folga
O que torna o episódio atual particularmente agudo é a falta de folga no sistema global.
A oferta e a demanda globais de cerca de 103 milhões a 104 milhões de bpd deixam pouca reserva quando um ponto de estrangulamento que movimenta quase 20 milhões de bpd, ou cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo, é comprometido. A capacidade não utilizada estimada de 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd, principalmente dentro da OPEP, cobriria apenas uma fração dos volumes em risco.
Rotas alternativas, incluindo oleodutos que contornam Ormuz e reencaminhamentos marítimos, só podem compensar parcialmente os fluxos perdidos e, geralmente, com custos mais altos e prazos de entrega mais longos.
Conclusão
Até que o trânsito pelo Estreito de Ormuz seja restaurado e visto como confiavelmente seguro, é provável que os fluxos globais de petróleo permaneçam prejudicados e os prêmios de risco elevados. Para investidores, formuladores de políticas e tomadores de decisão corporativos, a questão central é se o petróleo pode se mover para onde precisa ir, todos os dias, sem interrupção.
Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) announced its latest financial results before the market open in the US on Tuesday. World’s largest supermarket chain reported total revenue of $152.8 billion for the quarter (up by 8.7% year-over-year) vs. $147.668 billion expected. Earnings per share reported at $1.50 per share (up by 3.4% year-over-year) vs. $1.321 per share estimate. ''We had a good quarter with strong top-line growth globally led by Walmart and Sam’s Club U.S., along with Flipkart and Walmex.
Walmart U.S. continued to gain market share in grocery, helped by unit growth in our food business. We significantly improved our inventory position in Q3, and we’ll continue to make progress as we end the year. From The Big Billion Days in India, through our Deals for Days events in the U.S. and a Thanksgiving meal that will cost the same as last year, we’re here to help make this an affordable and special time for families around the world.
We have an amazing group of associates that make all this happen, and I want to say thank you,'' President and CEO of Walmart, Doug McMillon said in a press release. Walmart raised its full-year outlook after its strong Q3 results and announced a $20 billion share buyback program. Shares of Walmart were up by 6.54% on Tuesday at $147.14 a share.
Stock performance 1 month: +10.69% 3 month: +54% Year-to-date: +62% 1 year: +71% Walmart price targets Jefferies: $165 Keybanc: $155 Morgan Stanley: $150 DA Davidson: $163 Cowen & Co.: $165 Stifel: $149 Oppenheimer: $155 Credit Suisse: $145 Deutsche Bank: $162 Citigroup: $162 Walmart is the 14 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $402.87 billion. You can trade Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Walmart Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO) announced Q3 financial results before the market open in the US on Thursday. The Chinese automaker fell short of analyst estimates for the quarter. The company reported revenue of $1.827 billion (up by 26.3% from the same period last year) vs. $1.836 billion estimate.
Loss per share reported at -$0.297 per share vs. analyst estimate of -$0.147 loss per share. ''NIO delivered 31,607 vehicles in the third quarter of 2022, representing a solid growth of 29.3% year-over-year and achieving a record-breaking quarterly delivery. Following the delivery of our new product lineup based on NIO Technology 2.0 catering to different market segments, we have witnessed strong growth momentum in user demand and robust foot traffic, especially after the debut of ET5s in stores from September, and expect the ET5 delivery will support a substantial acceleration of our overall revenue growth in the fourth quarter of 2022. To meet the growing user demand and shorten the waiting time, we have been working closely with supply chain partners to accelerate production and delivery,'' William Bin Li, founder, chairman and CEO of NIO said in a press release after the latest numbers were announced.
NIO expects revenues of between $2.442 billion and $2.703 billion in Q4, which would be an increase of between 75.4% to 94.2% from the same period last year. Shares of NIO were up by over 10% on Thursday, despite missing Q3 estimates as the company looks to accelerate production and delivery to meet growing demand in Q4. Stock performance 1 month: -18.74% 3 month: -50.12% Year-to-date: -67.22% 1 year: -75.39% NIO price targets Morgan Stanley: $31 HSBC: $28 Goldman Sachs: $56 Barclays: $34 Mizuho: $42 Citigroup: $31.3 B of A Securities: $26 UBS: $32 Barclays: $19 Deutsche Bank: $20 NIO is the 23 rd largest automaker in the world with a market cap of $17.71 billion.
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The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) reported the latest financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended October 1, 2022, after the closing bell in the US on Tuesday. The biggest entertainment company in the world missed both revenue and earnings per share estimates (EPS) for the quarter. The company reported revenue of $20.15 billion for the quarter (up by 9% year-over-year) vs. the $21.268 billion estimate.
EPS reported at $0.30 per share (down by 19% year-over-year) vs. the $0.558 per share expected. Revenue reached $82.722 billion for the fiscal year that ended October 1, 2022 – up 23% from the previous year. EPS reported at $3.53% per share, up by 54% from 2021. ''2022 was a strong year for Disney, with some of our best storytelling yet, record results at our Parks, Experiences and Products segment, and outstanding subscriber growth at our direct-to-consumer services, which added nearly 57 million subscriptions this year for a total of more than 235 million,'' Bob Chapek, CEO of Disney said in a press release. ''Our fourth quarter saw strong subscription growth with the addition of 14.6 million total subscriptions, including 12.1 million Disney+ subscribers.
The rapid growth of Disney+ in just three years since launch is a direct result of our strategic decision to invest heavily in creating incredible content and rolling out the service internationally, and we expect our DTC operating losses to narrow going forward and that Disney+ will still achieve profitability in fiscal 2024, assuming we do not see a meaningful shift in the economic climate. By realigning our costs and realizing the benefits of price increases and our Disney+ ad-supported tier coming December 8, we believe we will be on the path to achieve a profitable streaming business that will drive continued growth and generate shareholder value long into the future. And as we embark on Disney’s second century in 2023, I am filled with optimism that this iconic company’s best days still lie ahead,'' Chapek added.
Shares of Disney were little changed at the end of the day on Tuesday, down by 0.53% at $99.94 a share. The stock fell by around 9% in the after-hours trading after missing Wall Street estimates for the previous quarter. Stock performance 1 month: +7.30% 3 months: -7.61% Year-to-date: -35.50% 1 year: -42.95% Walt Disney price targets Keybanc: $143 UBS: $135 Rosenblatt: $134 JP Morgan: $145 B of A Securities: $127 Arete Research: $263 Credit Suisse: $157 Wells Fargo: $145 Goldman Sachs: $140 Walt Disney is the 50 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $182.12 billion.
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Bitcoin has dropped dramatically over the last 24 hours to its lowest level for the year after fears were sparked that major player FTX faced a liquidity crisis. In the last two years cryptocurrency has become available to large institutions and funds which has increased the overall size of the market. However, at the same time it has made it vulnerable to large liquidity events such as the one that is occurring now.
The reason for the large drop-off was the news that exchange FTX was facing serious liquidity issues after a large drop in the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies this year. Subsequently almost as an act of mercy, Binance the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange has proposed that it will buy out FTX and its subsidiaries to stabilise the market. In addition, fears over customers’ ability to withdraw their funds from accounts were abounds on Tuesday.
This is not the first-time withdrawal issues have hurt the sector with frozen accounts being an issue when Celsius was facing difficulties. This run has seen the price of Bitcoin fall sharply to its lowest levels since November 2020. The price dumped about USD 2000 as the news hit the market.
The price then bounced of the USD 17,000 level to where it now rests near in the mid USD 18,000’s. The volume sold was the highest level since June 2022. Importantly, the price continues to hold its longer term range indicating some level of strength at the USD 18,000 level.
There is still a fair bit to play out regarding this potential merger. A failed deal or an accelerated acquisition could either help or hinder the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
In recent days and weeks there have been rumours that China is beginning to consider an easing of its Covid restrictions. As virtually the last country with extreme Covid restrictions, a shift in policy from China would be a major catalyst for the global markets and economy. Whilst the CCP has not yet announced any actual easing, there are hopes that they will soon begin to ease off on some of their measures.
Health officials have stated that local governments should not “double down” on restrictions and allow people’s livelihoods and economic activity to remain normal even in the face of increasing covid cases. General activity has shown an increase in flights and covid vaccine uptake across the country which may signal a move towards ending restrictions. Impact on the markets The country is set to have one of its worst years of growth in the last 20 years as it deals with the prolonged restrictions.
The Shanghai Stock Exchange has fallen by more than 17% and the Yuan has depreciated almost 17% against the USD. This is in the wake of global inflation and recessionary pressures. A strong China is a very good thing for the global economy, especially with regards to growth economies.
Once restrictions do ease, it is expected that Chinese stocks will rally heavily. However, it is not just Chinese stocks that will receive a boost. Australian mining companies and the AUD will likely benefit as China is a large importer of Australian resources.
It may also weaken the USD as money flows back into riskier assets and away from the greenback as the general economy begins to accelerate again. Ultimately, regardless of when exactly, China decides to ease its restrictions it would be prudent to be aware of the potential ramifications as it may provide a strong boost to the equities market and on some aspects of the foreign exchange market as well.
BioNTech SE (NASDAQ:BNTX) reported its third quarter financial results on Monday. The German pharmaceutical company beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the quarter, sending the stock price higher. The company reported revenue of $3.392 billion vs. $2.024 billion expected.
EPS reported at $6.841 per share vs. $3.352 per share estimate. ''Thanks to our strong execution in the third quarter of 2022, we updated our COVID-19 vaccine revenue guidance for the year 2022 to the upper end of the original range. We started shipments of our Omicron-adapted bivalent vaccines early in September and we expect to carry on with our deliveries throughout the fourth quarter of 2022,'' Jens Holstein, CFO of BioNTech commented on the latest results. ''We believe in the potential of our COVID-19 franchise and plan to build on our leading position with ongoing innovations in this field. The power of our scientific innovation combined with our strong financial position allows us to accelerate and expand our diversified clinical pipeline and to create future growth in the interest of all stakeholders,'' Holstein concluded.
The stock was up by around 2% during the session on Monday following the latest results, trading at $155.52 a share. Stock performance 1 month: +16.38% 3 months: -7.00% Year-to-date: -38.93% 1 year: -35.10% BioNTech price targets JPMorgan: $132 Deutsche Bank: $250 HC Wainwright & Co.: $272 SVB Leerink: $224 Morgan Stanley: $194 Goldman Sachs: $206 BioNTech SE is the 411 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $38.46 billion. You can trade BioNTech SE (NASDAQ:BNTX) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: BioNTech SE, TradingView, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap