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O anúncio do cessar-fogo de 8 de abril e as discussões paralelas em torno de uma trégua de 45 dias não resolveram a interrupção do Estreito de Ormuz. Por enquanto, eles limitaram o pior cenário possível, mas o tráfego de petroleiros permanece em uma fração dos níveis normais e a demanda do Irã por taxas de trânsito sinaliza uma mudança estrutural, não temporária.
O que começou como um conflito regional se tornou um choque energético global, e a questão para os mercados não é mais se Ormuz foi interrompida, mas como a interrupção muda permanentemente o piso de preços do petróleo.
Principais conclusões
- Cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia (bpd) de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos normalmente passam pelo Estreito de Ormuz, entre o Irã e Omã, o equivalente a cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo.
- Isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de estoque. Os mercados de petróleo dependem do rendimento contínuo, não do armazenamento estático.
- Se a interrupção persistir além de algumas semanas, o Brent poderá passar de um pico de curto prazo para um choque de preços mais amplo, com risco de estagflação.
- O tráfego de petroleiros pelo estreito caiu de cerca de 135 navios por dia para menos de 15 no pico da interrupção, uma redução de aproximadamente 85%, com mais de 150 embarcações ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas.
- Um cessar-fogo de duas semanas foi anunciado em 8 de abril, com negociações de trégua de 45 dias em andamento. O Irã sinalizou separadamente uma demanda por taxas de trânsito em embarcações que usam o estreito, o que, se formalizado, representaria um piso geopolítico permanente nos custos de energia.
- Os mercados começaram a se afastar do crescimento e da exposição à tecnologia para nomes de energia e defesa, refletindo a visão de que o petróleo elevado está se tornando um custo estrutural em vez de um prêmio de risco temporário.
O ponto de estrangulamento de petróleo mais crítico do mundo
O Estreito de Ormuz movimenta cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos, o equivalente a cerca de 20% do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo. Com a demanda global de petróleo em torno de 104 milhões de bpd e a capacidade não utilizada limitada, o mercado já estava fortemente equilibrado antes da última escalada.
O estreito também é um corredor crítico para o gás natural liquefeito. Cerca de 290 milhões de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaram pela rota todos os dias, em média, em 2024, representando cerca de 20% do comércio global de GNL, com os mercados asiáticos como principal destino.
A Agência Internacional de Energia (IEA) descreveu Ormuz como o ponto de estrangulamento do trânsito de petróleo mais importante do mundo, observando que mesmo interrupções parciais podem desencadear grandes movimentos de preços. O petróleo Brent subiu acima de USD 100 o barril, refletindo tanto a rigidez física quanto o aumento do prêmio de risco geopolítico.
Tanques ociosos enquanto os fluxos diminuem
Os dados de frete e seguro agora apontam para problemas em tempo real. Relata-se que mais de 85 grandes transportadores de petróleo bruto estão presos no Golfo Pérsico, enquanto mais de 150 navios foram ancorados, desviados ou atrasados à medida que os operadores reavaliam a segurança e a cobertura do seguro. Isso deixaria cerca de 120 milhões a 150 milhões de barris de petróleo bruto parados no mar.
Esses volumes representam apenas seis a sete dias de produção normal de Ormuz, ou pouco mais de um dia de consumo global de petróleo.
Os dados atualizados de transporte e seguro agora confirmam que mais de 150 embarcações foram ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas, acima das 85 relatadas inicialmente. Os 1,3 dias de cobertura do consumo global de petróleo bruto ocioso continuam sendo a restrição vinculativa: isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de armazenamento, e o cessar-fogo ainda não se traduziu em uma produtividade significativamente restaurada.
Um mercado baseado no fluxo, não no armazenamento
Os mercados de petróleo funcionam em movimento contínuo. Refinarias, plantas petroquímicas e cadeias de suprimentos globais são calibradas para entregas estáveis ao longo de rotas marítimas previsíveis. Quando os fluxos passam por um ponto de estrangulamento que carrega cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo são interrompidos, o sistema pode passar do equilíbrio ao déficit em poucos dias.
A capacidade de produção não utilizada, amplamente concentrada na OPEP, é estimada em apenas 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd. Isso fica bem aquém dos volumes em risco se os fluxos de Ormuz forem severamente interrompidos.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riscos de inflação e repercussões macro
O impacto inflacionário de um choque de petróleo normalmente chega em ondas. Preços mais altos de combustível e energia podem elevar a inflação global rapidamente, à medida que os custos de gasolina, diesel e energia aumentam.
Com o tempo, custos mais altos de energia podem passar por frete, alimentos, manufatura e serviços. Se a interrupção persistir, a combinação de inflação elevada e crescimento mais lento pode aumentar o risco de um ambiente estagflacionário e deixar os bancos centrais enfrentando uma difícil troca.
Sem compensação fácil, um sistema com pouca folga
O que torna o episódio atual particularmente agudo é a falta de folga no sistema global.
A oferta e a demanda globais de cerca de 103 milhões a 104 milhões de bpd deixam pouca reserva quando um ponto de estrangulamento que movimenta quase 20 milhões de bpd, ou cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo, é comprometido. A capacidade não utilizada estimada de 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd, principalmente dentro da OPEP, cobriria apenas uma fração dos volumes em risco.
Rotas alternativas, incluindo oleodutos que contornam Ormuz e reencaminhamentos marítimos, só podem compensar parcialmente os fluxos perdidos e, geralmente, com custos mais altos e prazos de entrega mais longos.
Conclusão
Até que o trânsito pelo Estreito de Ormuz seja restaurado e visto como confiavelmente seguro, é provável que os fluxos globais de petróleo permaneçam prejudicados e os prêmios de risco elevados. Para investidores, formuladores de políticas e tomadores de decisão corporativos, a questão central é se o petróleo pode se mover para onde precisa ir, todos os dias, sem interrupção.
The EURUSD is showing some signs of a potential short term break out on the daily and 4-hour time price charts. This is largely a technical breakout, although it is also supported by a shift in sentiment towards growth assets and away from the USD in the last week. Technical Analysis The daily cart shows a long term down trend with the price respecting the trend.
On the daily time frame, the price has broken through the trend line. In addition, the price has broken above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. This represents a short-term support level and a good position for a trailing stop loss or hard stop loss.
Looking at the 4-hour chart provides a more direct profit target and entry trigger. The chart shows that the candle sticks are forming into what may become a flag. An entry based on the current price action may be triggered by a breakout of the flag past 1.000 which is also the parity level.
This level also presents as the neckline for a double bottom. This further indicates a potential bottom, or a reversal is about to take place. Using the 50-day Exponential moving average as the position for the stop loss at 0.9914, and the next resistance as a profit target at 1.0200 gives the trade yields a Risk Reward ratio of nearly 2.7.
With volatility surrounding the market being relatively high there is still risks with this trade and traders should be aware of potential macro factors that may impact on the trade.
The UK has had to deal with recessionary fears, sky high energy prices, a cost-of-living crisis, and a breakdown in political leadership. This has caused the GBP to fall to lows not seen since the last century. The British economy has also had to deal with a potential liquidity crisis caused by some of the large UK retirement funds almost bringing down the UK economy however with some support from the Bank of England the situation has in the short term been resolved.
The political pressures have also eased somewhat with Liz Truss stepping down and Rishi Sunak taking over the role of Prime Minister, which may further support the potential for a reversal and show o strength in the pound. With the price so beaten down at some stage it will have to turn around. The question is this reversal about to occur?
Technical Analysis On the weekly chart, the price has been ranging between 1.4369 and 1.1985. Earlier this year the price dropped below the bottom of the range for second time with the only other time being the initial stages of the pandemic. The lower bounds of the range present a potential target if the reversal is validated.
The price has finally started higher and the strength of the weekly candles and the volume supporting the price action indicates that supply is being depleted. The risk for a potential reversal is just how aggressive the long-term moving averages are to the sell side. Both the 50- and 200-week moving averages are still pushing to the downside.
The daily chart shows an interesting picture. The price of the pair is clearly coiling and almost ready to break out of its consolidation. If the price can break out it may provide a short-term target of 1.19853 may provide a potential price to take profit.
With volatility seemingly settling around the UK's economy, the potential for a reversal remains, which may only improve the prospects for the Pound.
Coca-Cola tops Wall Street Q3 estimates The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE:KO) reported Q3 financial results before the market open on Tuesday. The US beverage company posted solid results for the quarter, beating Wall Street analyst estimates for both revenue and earnings per share (EPS). Revenue reported at $11.063 billion (up by 10% year-over-year) vs. $10.52 billion expected.
EPS at $0.69 per share (up by 7% year-over-year) vs. $0.637 per share estimate. ''Our strong capabilities and consumer insights continue to help us win in the marketplace,'' Coca-Cola CEO, James Quincey said in a press release. ''Our business is resilient amidst a dynamic operating and macroeconomic environment. We are investing in our strong portfolio of brands, which is a cornerstone of our ability to deliver long-term value for our stakeholders,'' Quincey added. Shares of Coca-Cola were up by around 1% on Tuesday, trading at $58.49 a share.
Stock performance 1 month: +3.39% 3 months: -7.78% Year-to-date: -1.55% 1 year: +7.01% Coca-Cola price targets Deutsche Bank: $59 Wedbush: $63 Morgan Stanley: $68 Credit Suisse: $64 Wells Fargo: $66 HSBC: $76 UBS: $72 JP Morgan: $70 Coca-Cola is the 30 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $251.88 billion. You can trade The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE:KO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: The Coca-Cola Company, TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) reported its Q3 financial results after the closing bell on Wednesday. World’s largest automaker exceeded earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the quarter but fell short on revenue. Revenue reported at $21.454 billion (up by 56% year-over-year) vs. $21.982 billion expected.
EPS at $1.05 per share (up by 69% year-over-year) vs. $1.001 per share estimate. ''The third quarter of 2022 was another strong quarter with record revenue, operating profit and free cash flow. In the last 12 months, our free cash flow exceeded $8.9B. Our operating margin reached 17.2% in Q3.
We achieved an industry-leading operating margin' while encountering material headwinds YoY. Raw material cost inflation impacted our profitability along with ramp inefficiencies from Gigafactory Berlin- Brandenburg, Gigafactory Texas and 4680 cell production. Also, the U.S.
Dollar (USD) continued to strengthen compared to all other major currencies in our markets.'' ''We remain focused on increasing vehicle production as quickly as possible, by increasing our weekly build rate in Fremont and Shanghai and progressing steadily through the production ramps in Berlin and Texas. Logistics volatility and supply chain bottlenecks remain immediate challenges, although improving. We continue to believe that battery supply chain constraints will be the main limiting factor to EV market growth in the medium and long terms.
Despite these challenges, we expect to continue to deliver every vehicle produced while maintaining strong operating margins,'' Tesla said in a letter to shareholders. Bank of America raised its price target for Tesla from $315 to $325 on Wednesday. "In light of capital markets volatility, we would note that Tesla’s self-funding status is a notable advantage versus some start-up EV automaker competitors," the bank said in a note to investors. The stock was down by around 3% on Thursday, trading at $214.80 a share.
Stock performance 1 month: -26.10% 3 months: -21.51% Year-to-date: -39.46% 1 year: -28.44% Tesla price targets Bank of America: $325 Deutsche Bank: $355 Wedbush: $300 RBC Capital: $325 Wells Fargo: $230 Morgan Stanley: $350 Mizuho: $370 Goldman Sachs: $333 Tesla is the 6 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $668.42 billion. You can trade Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Tesla, TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap, Twitter
The USD had a pullback in recent days as equities have rebounded allowing for other strong currencies such as the CHF to see From a technical perspective the chart shows some interesting price action that may indicates an important inflection point for the price. On the weekly chart, the price has been in a long-term range between 0.87 CHF and 1.03 CHF. With the USD being so strong over the last year, the price has been consolidating towards the top of the range.
The weekly chart also shows an important pattern forming which is a golden cross. This is when the shorter, (50 week Moving average) crosses over the longer (200 week moving average) which is usually a signal of the Bears taking control. However, looking at past price history this golden cross has not been a particularly accurate indication of a strong rise in price.
Rather it indicates just how choppy the price action is. On the shorter, daily time frame, the price has had a significant sell off to begin this week. Twice, the price has failed to break out of this range, and therefore the price may fall back down to the bottom of the range or at least test the support at 0.98326.
If the price can drop lower, it may fall right to the bottom of the range. On the other hand, both prior sell offs involved aggressive red sell candles. In this case there has only been one so far.
Therefore, waiting for the next sell candle may provide a good entry signal to go short. Alternatively, if the price can base and consolidate it may indicate that a breakout to the outside is about to occur. With economic data related to inflation still to come, the USD may till rise again supporting a potential break.
The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE:PG) reported its latest financial results before the opening bell on Wednesday. The largest consumer goods company in the world topped both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the quarter – sending the stock price higher at the open. Revenue reported at $20.612 billion (up by 1% year-over-year) vs. $20.33 billion expected.
EPS at $1.57 per share (down by 2% year-over-year) vs. $1.547 per share estimate. ''We delivered solid results in our first quarter of fiscal 2023 in a very difficult cost and operating environment,'' Jon Moeller, CEO of The Procter & Gamble Company said in a press release. ''These results enable us to maintain our guidance ranges for organic sales and EPS growth for the fiscal year despite continued significant headwinds. We remain committed to our integrated strategies of a focused product portfolio, superiority, productivity, constructive disruption and an agile and accountable organization structure. These strategies have enabled us to build and sustain strong momentum.
They remain the right strategies to navigate through the near-term challenges we’re facing and continue to deliver balanced growth and value creation,'' Moeller concluded. The stock was up by around 2% following the latest results, trading at $131.11 a share. Stock performance 1 month: -3.34% 3 months: -7.32% Year-to-date: -19.80% 1 year: -7.10% Procter & Gamble price targets Credit Suisse: $140 JP Morgan: $140 Raymond James: $155 Deutsche Bank: $155 Morgan Stanley: $160 Wells Fargo: $150 Barclays: $154 Truist Securities: $160 The Procter & Gamble Company is the 17 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $313.81 billion.
You can trade The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE:PG) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: The Procter & Gamble Company, TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap