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O anúncio do cessar-fogo de 8 de abril e as discussões paralelas em torno de uma trégua de 45 dias não resolveram a interrupção do Estreito de Ormuz. Por enquanto, eles limitaram o pior cenário possível, mas o tráfego de petroleiros permanece em uma fração dos níveis normais e a demanda do Irã por taxas de trânsito sinaliza uma mudança estrutural, não temporária.
O que começou como um conflito regional se tornou um choque energético global, e a questão para os mercados não é mais se Ormuz foi interrompida, mas como a interrupção muda permanentemente o piso de preços do petróleo.
Principais conclusões
- Cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia (bpd) de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos normalmente passam pelo Estreito de Ormuz, entre o Irã e Omã, o equivalente a cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo.
- Isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de estoque. Os mercados de petróleo dependem do rendimento contínuo, não do armazenamento estático.
- Se a interrupção persistir além de algumas semanas, o Brent poderá passar de um pico de curto prazo para um choque de preços mais amplo, com risco de estagflação.
- O tráfego de petroleiros pelo estreito caiu de cerca de 135 navios por dia para menos de 15 no pico da interrupção, uma redução de aproximadamente 85%, com mais de 150 embarcações ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas.
- Um cessar-fogo de duas semanas foi anunciado em 8 de abril, com negociações de trégua de 45 dias em andamento. O Irã sinalizou separadamente uma demanda por taxas de trânsito em embarcações que usam o estreito, o que, se formalizado, representaria um piso geopolítico permanente nos custos de energia.
- Os mercados começaram a se afastar do crescimento e da exposição à tecnologia para nomes de energia e defesa, refletindo a visão de que o petróleo elevado está se tornando um custo estrutural em vez de um prêmio de risco temporário.
O ponto de estrangulamento de petróleo mais crítico do mundo
O Estreito de Ormuz movimenta cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos, o equivalente a cerca de 20% do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo. Com a demanda global de petróleo em torno de 104 milhões de bpd e a capacidade não utilizada limitada, o mercado já estava fortemente equilibrado antes da última escalada.
O estreito também é um corredor crítico para o gás natural liquefeito. Cerca de 290 milhões de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaram pela rota todos os dias, em média, em 2024, representando cerca de 20% do comércio global de GNL, com os mercados asiáticos como principal destino.
A Agência Internacional de Energia (IEA) descreveu Ormuz como o ponto de estrangulamento do trânsito de petróleo mais importante do mundo, observando que mesmo interrupções parciais podem desencadear grandes movimentos de preços. O petróleo Brent subiu acima de USD 100 o barril, refletindo tanto a rigidez física quanto o aumento do prêmio de risco geopolítico.
Tanques ociosos enquanto os fluxos diminuem
Os dados de frete e seguro agora apontam para problemas em tempo real. Relata-se que mais de 85 grandes transportadores de petróleo bruto estão presos no Golfo Pérsico, enquanto mais de 150 navios foram ancorados, desviados ou atrasados à medida que os operadores reavaliam a segurança e a cobertura do seguro. Isso deixaria cerca de 120 milhões a 150 milhões de barris de petróleo bruto parados no mar.
Esses volumes representam apenas seis a sete dias de produção normal de Ormuz, ou pouco mais de um dia de consumo global de petróleo.
Os dados atualizados de transporte e seguro agora confirmam que mais de 150 embarcações foram ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas, acima das 85 relatadas inicialmente. Os 1,3 dias de cobertura do consumo global de petróleo bruto ocioso continuam sendo a restrição vinculativa: isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de armazenamento, e o cessar-fogo ainda não se traduziu em uma produtividade significativamente restaurada.
Um mercado baseado no fluxo, não no armazenamento
Os mercados de petróleo funcionam em movimento contínuo. Refinarias, plantas petroquímicas e cadeias de suprimentos globais são calibradas para entregas estáveis ao longo de rotas marítimas previsíveis. Quando os fluxos passam por um ponto de estrangulamento que carrega cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo são interrompidos, o sistema pode passar do equilíbrio ao déficit em poucos dias.
A capacidade de produção não utilizada, amplamente concentrada na OPEP, é estimada em apenas 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd. Isso fica bem aquém dos volumes em risco se os fluxos de Ormuz forem severamente interrompidos.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riscos de inflação e repercussões macro
O impacto inflacionário de um choque de petróleo normalmente chega em ondas. Preços mais altos de combustível e energia podem elevar a inflação global rapidamente, à medida que os custos de gasolina, diesel e energia aumentam.
Com o tempo, custos mais altos de energia podem passar por frete, alimentos, manufatura e serviços. Se a interrupção persistir, a combinação de inflação elevada e crescimento mais lento pode aumentar o risco de um ambiente estagflacionário e deixar os bancos centrais enfrentando uma difícil troca.
Sem compensação fácil, um sistema com pouca folga
O que torna o episódio atual particularmente agudo é a falta de folga no sistema global.
A oferta e a demanda globais de cerca de 103 milhões a 104 milhões de bpd deixam pouca reserva quando um ponto de estrangulamento que movimenta quase 20 milhões de bpd, ou cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo, é comprometido. A capacidade não utilizada estimada de 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd, principalmente dentro da OPEP, cobriria apenas uma fração dos volumes em risco.
Rotas alternativas, incluindo oleodutos que contornam Ormuz e reencaminhamentos marítimos, só podem compensar parcialmente os fluxos perdidos e, geralmente, com custos mais altos e prazos de entrega mais longos.
Conclusão
Até que o trânsito pelo Estreito de Ormuz seja restaurado e visto como confiavelmente seguro, é provável que os fluxos globais de petróleo permaneçam prejudicados e os prêmios de risco elevados. Para investidores, formuladores de políticas e tomadores de decisão corporativos, a questão central é se o petróleo pode se mover para onde precisa ir, todos os dias, sem interrupção.
As the week comes to an end, many cryptocurrency investors grow increasingly nervous. This emotional sentiment has resulted in bitcoin’s new 18 month’s low price, since December 2020. It has also caused a well known crypto company, Celsius, to suspend client’s withdrawals.
Bitcoin started the week at $27,000 USD which was a 10% decrease from Friday’s closing price of around $30,000 USD. Since the opening of the week, it has dropped another 23% to almost $20,000 USD. This is almost a 70% decline from last October’s peak of nearly $69,000 USD.
This sharp decline also mirrored the bearish sentiment across other risk assets. US equities closed 2.9% lower on Friday and continued to decrease as the week proceeded. The 2% decline of the US equity futures would have also been an indicator of how the US equities markets would be performing.
The pressure on risk assets comes after US consumer prices soared 8.6 per cent in May from the same month a year earlier, more than economists anticipated and the highest reading since 1981. The increasing selling pressure across the cryptocurrencies scene prompted Celsius to put a halt on client’s withdrawals from their cryptocurrency accounts. This is not a good sign for the four-year-old start-up company.
Celsius offers an array of services, including their ‘Swap’ tool. This service allows users to exchange their cryptocurrencies for stablecoins that are linked to fiat currencies, such as the USD. The company’s reasoning for the halt was to “stabilise liquidity and operations while we take steps to preserve and protect assets”, and that it will look to resume activity as soon as possible.
Celsius’ decision has come at a bad time as weeks earlier, Terra, a popular stable coin linked to the US dollar, had collapsed alongside its sister token Luna. This collapse had wiped out tens of billions of dollars in market value for many investors. Overall, the cryptocurrency market is on a decline.
This is because the biggest coin, bitcoin, is currently trending downwards and this would also translate across all other alt-coins. Source: GO Markets MT5, Celsius, TradingView, Financial Times, AFR
Bitcoin has recently tested the lows of its price range that it reached in the immediate aftermath of the FTX crisis. A long opportunity has been brought about after price bounced off these lows near $15,863. The hourly chart shows a potential good risk reward entry.
The trigger for the entry is not just the fact that the price has bounced off the support zone but is also the strong bullish candle stick at the support level. The selling was absorbed at the support zone by the buyers and could not close below the wicks of either candle as seen by the length of the wicks. Furthermore, the above average volume for these candles indicated that the selling was exhausted and that the buyers were willing to take on the supply.
For this bounce to continue, a strong green candle that closes above the opening price of most recent red candlestick will hopefully support the breakout at $16,204. As seen on the chart, an obvious target is the $17,000 level which is the top of the recent price range.
JD.com Inc. (NASDAQ: JD, HKEX: 9618) reported its latest earnings results for the three months that ended September 30, 2022, on Friday. The Chinese e-commerce company had a solid quarter – beating revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts. JD reported revenue of $34.373 billion (up by 11.4% from the previous quarter) vs. $34.145 billion estimate.
EPS reported at $0.885 per share vs. $0.685 per share expected. ''JD.com's relentless focus on user experience, cost and efficiency has allowed us to continuously expand our user base while delivering profitable growth,'' Sandy Xu, CFO of the company said in a press release. ''Our pre-emptive efforts earlier this year to promote operating efficiency and financial discipline have proven timely and effective given the ongoing external challenges. We will continue to focus on capturing the vast opportunity presented by China's retail market by striving to be the partner of choice for China's consumers and enterprises,'' Xu added. Share of JD were down by around 3% on Friday at $56.01 a share.
Stock performance 1 month: +33.14% 3 month: +60% Year-to-date: -19.91% 1 year: -38.70% JD.com price targets Barclays: $59 Citigroup: $85 Goldman Sachs: $89 Benchmark: $106 JP Morgan: $58 Mizuho: $90 HSBC: $91 Morgan Stanley: $85 JD.com is the 146 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $89.10 billion. You can trade JD.com Inc. (NASDAQ: JD, HKEX: 9618) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: JD.com Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE: BABA, HKEX: 9988) announced the latest financial results on Thursday. The Chinese e-commerce giant reported revenue of $29.124 billion (up by 3% year-over-year), falling slightly short of $29.288 billion expected. Earnings per share topped analyst estimates for the quarter at $1.816 per share (an increase of 15% year-over-year) vs. $1.683 earnings per share estimate. ''We delivered solid results this past quarter despite ongoing macro environment challenges, which is a testament to our resilient business model and unmatched customer value proposition,'' Daniel Zhang, Chairman and CEO of the company said in a press release. ''The uncertainties of the global landscape have only reinforced our resolve to focus on building capacity that will yield sustainable, high-quality growth for our customers and our own business over the long term.
The trust of our shareholders has enabled Alibaba’s development over the past 23 years, and we are committed to improving shareholder return as we continue to strengthen the foundations for Alibaba’s future,'' Zhang added. Alibaba also announced an increase to its share buyback program: ''We have continued to take a holistic approach to improve operating efficiency and cost optimization throughout the company that resulted in adjusted EBITA growth of 29% year-over-year. With strong net cash position and cash flow generation, as of November 16, 2022, we had repurchased approximately US$18 billion of our shares under our existing US$25 billion share repurchase program.
In addition, our board has approved to upsize the share repurchase program by another US$15 billion and extend the program to the end of fiscal year 2025.'' Shares of Alibaba rose on Thursday – up by around 8% at $84.52 a share. Stock performance 1 month: +18.47% 3 month: -5.97% Year-to-date: -28.18% 1 year: -40.58% Alibaba price targets Truist Securities: $125 Barclays: $114 Morgan Stanley: $110 B of A Securities: $155 Bernstein: $130 Benchmark: $205 JP Morgan: $140 HSBC: $141 Citigroup: $172 Alibaba is the 37 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $227.68 billion. You can trade Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE: BABA, HKEX: 9988) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Alibaba Group Holding Limited, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) reported its latest financial results after the market close in the US on Wednesday. The US technology giant beat revenue estimates but fell short of earnings per share (EPS) expectations for the quarter. The company reported revenue of $5.931 billion (down by 17% year-over-year) vs. $5.781 billion estimate.
EPS reported at $0.58 per share (down by 50% year-over-year) vs. $0.70 per share. ''We are quickly adapting to the macro environment, correcting inventory levels, and paving the way for new products,'' founder and CEO of NVIDIA, Jensen Huang said after posting the latest results. ''NVIDIA’s pioneering work in accelerated computing is more vital than ever. Limited by physics, general purpose computing has slowed to a crawl, just as AI demands more computing. Accelerated computing lets companies achieve orders-of-magnitude increases in productivity while saving money and the environment,'' Huang added.
NVIDIA expects revenue of around $6 billion in Q4. The stock was down by 4.54% on Wednesday at $159.09. The share price rose by around 2% in after-hours following the results.
Stock performance 1 month: +33.32% 3 month: -12.37% Year-to-date: -45.37% 1 year: -45.09% NVIDIA price targets Credit Suisse: $210 Oppenheimer: $225 Barclays: $140 Deutsche Bank: $140 Citigroup: $210 BMO Capital: $210 Mizuho: $205 Stifel: $165 Needham: $170 NVIDIA is the 14 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $400.98 billion. You can trade NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: NVIDIA Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
The EUR has been on a ‘recovery rally’ since it fell below parity level with USD earlier this year. With inflationary pressures potentially easing across the world the USD has finally taken a breath. The currency which has been haven for many market participants in dealing with the high volatility finally saw a dip after weaker than expected US CPI figures last week.
Since this time the USD Index or DXY has fallen by nearly 4.5% which is a significant drop. This has had an overall positive impact on currencies that were struggling such as the AUD, JPY and of course the EUR. Whilst the EUR has provided a positive move in recent weeks and days there is still some geopolitical concerns especially with the news of a missile killing two citizens in Poland earlier this week.
Technical Analysis The weekly chart shows that price is currently testing a long terms resistance level at 1.0352. This level acted as support for almost 7 years prior to being broken and therefore has become a significant level. In addition, the price is also fighting against the 50-week moving average which is at 1.0588.
The 50 week moving averages is also a short-term long target for long trades. Looking more closely at the daily chart, the price is showing an important signal that it has not done since May 2020. The price is testing the 200-day moving average.
If it can break through it may represent a bullish signal. The last time the price broke through this level it managed to go from 1.10 to 1.23. This time around, the currency pair is having to fight inflationary pressures which may create a headwind.
The price action is still showing a potential price target of 1.06 in the near term and if it can break through the 200-day moving average and a longer-term target of 1.15.