Noticias del mercado & perspectivas
Anticípate a los mercados con perspectivas de expertos, noticias y análisis técnico para guiar tus decisiones de trading.
El anuncio del alto el fuego del 8 de abril y las discusiones paralelas en torno a una tregua de 45 días no han resuelto la interrupción del Estrecho de Ormuz. Por ahora, han puesto un tope al peor escenario posible, pero el tráfico de petroleros se mantiene en una fracción de los niveles normales y la demanda iraní de tarifas de tránsito señala un cambio estructural, no temporal.
Lo que comenzó como un conflicto regional se ha convertido en un shock energético global, y la pregunta para los mercados ya no es si Ormuz fue interrumpido, sino cómo permanentemente la interrupción cambia el piso de precios para el petróleo.
Puntos clave
- Alrededor de 20 millones de barriles por día (bpd) de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo normalmente pasan por el Estrecho de Ormuz entre Irán y Omán, lo que equivale a aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y aproximadamente el 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo.
- Esto es un choque de flujo, no un problema de inventario. Los mercados petroleros dependen del rendimiento continuo, no del almacenamiento de información estático.
- Si la interrupción persiste más allá de unas pocas semanas, el Brent podría pasar de un pico a corto plazo a un shock de precios más amplio, con riesgo de estanflación.
- El tráfico de petroleros a través del estrecho cayó de alrededor de 135 barcos por día a menos de 15 en el pico de interrupción, una reducción de aproximadamente 85%, con más de 150 embarcaciones ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas.
- El 8 de abril se anunció un alto el fuego de dos semanas, con negociaciones de tregua de 45 días en curso. Irán ha señalado por separado una demanda de tarifas de tránsito para los buques que utilizan el estrecho, lo que, de formalizar, representaría un piso geopolítico permanente en los costos de energía.
- Los mercados han comenzado a alejarse del crecimiento y la exposición tecnológica hacia los nombres de energía y defensa, lo que refleja la opinión de que el petróleo elevado se está convirtiendo en un costo estructural en lugar de una prima de riesgo temporal.
El punto de choque petrolero más crítico del mundo
El Estrecho de Ormuz maneja aproximadamente 20 millones de barriles diarios de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo, lo que equivale a alrededor del 20% del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo. Con la demanda mundial de petróleo cercana a los 104 millones de bpd y la capacidad sobrante limitada, el mercado ya estaba fuertemente equilibrado antes de la última escalada.
El estrecho también es un corredor crítico para el gas natural licuado. Alrededor de 290 millones de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaron por la ruta cada día en promedio en 2024, lo que representa aproximadamente el 20% del comercio mundial de GNL, siendo los mercados asiáticos el principal destino.
La Agencia Internacional de Energía (AIE) ha descrito a Ormuz como el punto de choque del tránsito petrolero más importante del mundo, señalando que incluso las interrupciones parciales pueden desencadenar movimientos desmedidos de precios. El crudo Brent se ha movido por encima de los 100 dólares el barril, lo que refleja tanto la estanqueidad física como una prima de riesgo geopolítico al alza.
Tanques inactivos a medida que los flujos son lentos
Los datos de envío y seguros ahora apuntan a tensión en tiempo real. Se informa que más de 85 grandes transportistas de crudo están varados en el Golfo Pérsico, mientras que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas a medida que los operadores reevalúan la cobertura de seguridad y seguros. Eso dejaría un estimado de 120 millones a 150 millones de barriles de crudo inactivos en el mar.
Esos volúmenes representan solo de seis a siete días de rendimiento normal de Hormuz, o un poco más de un día de consumo mundial de petróleo.
Los datos actualizados de envío y seguros confirman ahora que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas, por encima de las 85 reportadas inicialmente. Los 1.3 días de cobertura de consumo mundial del crudo inactivo siguen siendo la limitación vinculante: se trata de un shock de flujo, no un problema de almacenamiento, y el alto el fuego aún no se ha traducido en un rendimiento restaurado de manera significativa.
Un mercado basado en el flujo, no en el almacenamiento de información
Los mercados petroleros funcionan en movimiento continuo. Las refinerías, las plantas petroquímicas y las cadenas de suministro mundiales están calibradas para lograr entregas estables a lo largo de rutas marítimas predecibles. Cuando los flujos a través de un punto de choque que lleva aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo se interrumpen, el sistema puede pasar del equilibrio al déficit en cuestión de días.
La capacidad de producción sobrante, concentrada en gran medida dentro de la OPEP, se estima en sólo 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd. Eso queda muy por debajo de los volúmenes en riesgo si los flujos de Ormuz se ven gravemente perturbados.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riesgos de inflación y macroderrames
El impacto inflacionario de un choque petrolero suele llegar en oleadas. Los precios más altos del combustible y la energía pueden elevar rápidamente la inflación general a medida que los costos de gasolina, diésel y energía se muevan al alza.
Con el tiempo, los mayores costos de energía pueden pasar por fletes, alimentos, manufactura y servicios. Si la perturbación persiste, la combinación de una inflación elevada y un crecimiento más lento podría elevar el riesgo de un entorno estanflacionario y dejar a los bancos centrales enfrentando una difícil compensación.
Sin compensación fácil, un sistema con poca holgura
Lo que hace que el episodio actual sea particularmente agudo es la falta de holgura en el sistema global.
La oferta y la demanda mundiales cerca de 103 millones a 104 millones de bpd dejan poco colchón de sobra cuando un punto de choque que maneja casi 20 millones de bpd, o cerca de una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo, se ve comprometido. La capacidad sobrante estimada de 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd, en su mayoría dentro de la OPEP, cubriría sólo una fracción de los volúmenes en riesgo.
Las rutas alternativas, incluidas las tuberías que eluden Ormuz y el envío reencaminado, solo pueden compensar parcialmente los flujos perdidos, y generalmente a un costo más alto y con plazos de entrega más largos.
Conclusión
Hasta que se restablezca el tránsito por el Estrecho de Ormuz y se vea como creíblemente seguro, es probable que los flujos mundiales de petróleo sigan deteriorados y las primas de riesgo sean elevadas. Para los inversionistas, los formuladores de políticas y los tomadores de decisiones corporativas, la pregunta central es si el petróleo puede moverse hacia donde necesita ir, todos los días, sin interrupción.
Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) recently overtook Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) as the largest company in the world, reaching $3.036 trillion market cap. On Tuesday, the company announced its latest financial results. Let’s see how the company performed.
The US tech giant reported revenue that exceeded Wall Street expectations at $62.02 billion for FY24 Q2 (up by 18% year-over-year) vs. $61.141 billion estimate. Earnings per share (EPS) reached $2.93 vs. $2.771 per share expected. EPS was up by 33% vs. the same period the year before.
Company overview Founded: 1975 Headquarters: Redmond, Washington Number of employees: 221,000 Industry: Technology Key people: Satya Nadella (CEO), Amy Hood (CFO) CEO and CFO commentary "We’ve moved from talking about AI to applying AI at scale. By infusing AI across every layer of our tech stack, we’re winning new customers and helping drive new benefits and productivity gains across every sector," Satya Nadella, CEO of the company highlighted what’s driving the business in a press release. Amy Hood, CFO of Microsoft, also chipped in to emphasize what helped the company achieve the high level results in the previous quarter: "Strong execution by our sales teams and partners drove Microsoft Cloud revenue to $33.7 billion, up 24% (up 22% in constant currency) year-over-year." Stock reaction Shares were flat at market close on Tuesday, trading at $408.49 a share.
There wasn’t much movement in the stock in the after-hours following the latest resulst were announced. One to watch at the open on Wednesday. Stock performance 5 day: +2.43% 1 month: +10.17% 3 months: +20.85% Year-to-date: +8.66% 1 year: +64.88% Microsoft stock price targets Wedbush: $450 Piper Sandler: $455 BNP Paribas: $471 BMO Capital Markets: $420 Mizuho: $450 Argus: $430 Tigress Financial: $475 Royal Bank of Canada: $390 Evercore ISI: $432 Barclays: $425 HSBC: $413 Citigroup: $432 You can trade Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Microsoft Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
One of the most anticipated earnings calls of the week is here. Mark Zuckerberg’s, Meta Platforms Inc. (NYSE:META), announced the latest results from Q4 2023 after the market closed on Thursday. The company did not disappoint investors and topped both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates, sending the stock higher.
Meta achieved revenue of $40.111 billion for the last quarter of 2023 vs. $39.124 billion expected. Revenue was up by 25% year-over-year. EPS reached $5.33 per share vs. $4.822 per share estimate, rising by 205% from the same period last year.
The tech giant also announced its first ever dividend of $0.50 per share. The dividend will be paid to shareholders as of close of business on 22/2/2024 and will be paid on 26/3/2024. Meta plans to distribute a dividend every quarter ''subject to market conditions and approval by our board of directors.'' Company overview Founded: 2004 Headquarters: 1601 Willow Road, Menlo Park, California 94025, United States Number of employees: 66,185 (2023) Industry: Social media, Social network advertising, Consumer electronics, Virtual reality Key people: Mark Zuckerberg (Chairman and CEO), Javier Olivan (COO), Susan Li (CFO), Andrew Bosworth (CTO), Chris Cox (CPO) CEO commentary Mark Zuckerberg was short and sweet in a statement to investors: "We had a good quarter as our community and business continue to grow." "We've made a lot of progress on our vision for advancing AI and the metaverse," highlighted company’s work on AI.
Stock reaction The stock was up by 1.19% at the end of Thursday at $394.78 per share. Shares rose by over 14% in the after-hours trading after Meta’s results exceeded expectations. One to watch at the open Friday.
Stock performance 5 day: +0.41% 1 month: +13.73% 3 months: +26.99% Year-to-date: +11.53% 1 year: +109.13% Meta Platforms stock price targets KeyCorp: $465 Jefferies Financial Group: $455 Raymond James: $450 Citigroup: $440 Royal Bank of Canada: $400 JMP Securities: $410 Wells Fargo & Company: $438 Piper Sandler: $415 Mizuho: $470 BMO Capital Markets: $397 Wedbush: $420 Tigress Financial: $435 Stifel Nicolaus: $405 Barclays: $400 Meta Platforms Inc. is the 7th largest company in the world with a market cap of $1.014 trillion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Meta Platforms Inc. (NYSE:META) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''.
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Meta Platforms Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
The US earnings season continues. To kick things off this week, McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE: MCD), released Q4 2023 and full year results before the opening bell on Monday. World’s largest restaurant chain reported revenue that fell short of Wall Street expectations for the first time since Q2 2022 at $6.406 billion vs. $6.448 billion expected.
Revenue was up by 8% vs. Q4 2022. Earnings per share (EPS) reached $2.95 vs. analyst estimate of $2.827 per share.
EPS was also up by 8% year-over-year. Full year revenue reached $25.493 billion, up from $23.182 billion in 2022. EPS grew by 39% year-over-year to $11.56 per share.
Company overview Founded: 1940 Headquarters: Chicago, Illinois, United States Number of employees: 150,000 (2022) Industry: Fast food restaurants, real estate Key people: Enrique Hernandez Jr. (chairman), Chris Kempczinski (president & CEO) CEO commentary "Our global comparable sales growth of 9% for the year is a testament to the tremendous dedication of the entire McDonald’s System," CEO of McDonald's, Chris Kempczinski said in a press release. "Strong execution of our Accelerating the Arches strategy has driven over 30% comparable sales growth since 2019 as our talented crew members, and the industry’s best franchisees and suppliers have demonstrated proven agility with a relentless focus on the customer. By evolving the way we work across the System, we remain confident in the resilience of our business amid macro challenges that will persist in 2024," Kempczinski added. Stock reaction The stock was down by 3.73% at the end of trading on Monday, trading at $285.97 a share, falling to its lowest level since 8/12/23.
Stock performance 5 day: -2.17% 1 month: -2.03% 3 months: +6.34% Year-to-date: -3.55% 1 year: +6.74% McDonald’s stock price targets Bank of America: $341 Stifel Nicolaus: $322 HSBC: $317 Truist Financial: $340 Piper Sandler: $299 TD Cowen: $325 BMO Capital Markets: $335 Royal Bank of Canada: $315 Citigroup: $310 DZ Bank: $300 Wedbush: $310 Stephens: $300 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $278 McDonald’s Corporation is the 51st largest company in the world with a market cap of $207.42 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE: MCD) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: McDonald’s Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
US technology giant, Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC), reported Q4 2023 financial results on Thursday. World’s largest semiconductor company by revenue reported revenue and earnings per share (EPS) that beat analyst estimates. Revenue reached $15.406 billion vs. $15.159 billion expected.
Revenue grew by 10% year-over-year. EPS reported at $0.54 vs. $0.447 per share estimate. EPS was up by 260% vs.
Q4 2022. Intel expects revenue of between $12.2 to $13.2 billion for Q1, below analyst estimate of $14.15 billion. EPS expected to be $0.13 vs. $0.33 per share expected.
Company overview Founded: 1968 Headquarters: Santa Clara, California, United States Number of employees: 131,900 (2022) Industry: Semiconductors, Computer hardware, Autonomous cars, Automation, Artificial intelligence Key people: Frank D. Yeary (chairman), Pat Gelsinger (CEO) CEO commentary ''We delivered strong Q4 results, surpassing expectations for the fourth consecutive quarter with revenue at the higher end of our guidance,'' CEO of Intel, Pat Gelsinger, said in a statement to investors. ''The quarter capped a year of tremendous progress on Intel's transformation, where we consistently drove execution and accelerated innovation, resulting in strong customer momentum for our products. In 2024, we remain relentlessly focused on achieving process and product leadership, continuing to build our external foundry business and at-scale global manufacturing, and executing our mission to bring AI everywhere as we drive long-term value for stakeholders,'' Gelsinger added.
Stock reaction The stock was up by 0.94% on Thursday, trading at $49.55 a share. Despite beating expectations for Q4 2023, the stock fell by around 8% in after-hours trading as future outlook came in below estimates. Stock performance 5 day: +6.01% 1 month: -1.67% 3 months: +52.37% Year-to-date: -1.39% 1 year: +64.67% Intel stock price targets Rosenblatt: $17 Cantor Fitzgerald: $50 Raymond James: $54 TD Cowen: $45 Susquehanna: $42 Barclays: $44 Stifel Nicolaus: $45 Deutsche Bank: $42 Bank of America: $50 Benchmark: $52 Mizuho: $50 Needham & Company LLC: $40 HSBC: $33 Morgan Stanley: $39 Intel Corporation is the 52nd largest company in the world with a market cap of $208.90 billion.
You can trade Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''. GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Intel Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap, Gartner, CNBC, LSEG
Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) released the latest financial results for Q4 of last year after the market closed on Tuesday. World’s 11th largest automaker did not disappoint investors and topped both revenue and earnings per share estimates (EPS). The company achieved revenue of $46 billion in the last 3 months of 2023 vs. $43.062 billion expected, up by 4.5% year-over-year.
EPS was reported at $0.29, beating Wall Street estimate by 140.22% at $0.121 per share. Company overview Founded: 1903 Headquarters: Ford World Headquarters, Dearborn, Michigan, United States Number of employees: 173,000 (2022) Industry: Automotive Key people: William Clay Ford Jr. (Executive Chairman), Jim Farley (President & CEO) CEO commentary ''We’re the only company that gives customers such a wide range of choices – gas, hybrid and electric vehicles – made possible by our Ford+ plan and the talented team that’s carrying it out,'' Jim Farley, CEO of Ford highlighted what separates the company from the competition. ''Ford is creating a product, software and services powerhouse with huge potential for this year and the long haul,'' Farley concluded his statement to investors. Stock reaction Shares were up by 4.14% at market close on Tuesday, trading at $12.07.
The stock rose in the after-hours by around 6% as investors digested the results. Stock performance 5 day: +2.46% 1 month: +1.94% 3 months: +18.68% Year-to-date: -0.98% 1 year: -10.26% Ford stock price targets UBS Group: $12 BNP Paribas: $12 HSBC: $11.30 Barclays: $14 Morgan Stanley: $15 Royal Bank of Canada: $12 Daiwa Capital Markets: $13 Jefferies Financial Group: $15 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $16 The Goldman Sachs Group: 14 Citigroup: $17 Wells Fargo & Company: $11 Benchmark: $20 Ford Motor Company is the 367th largest company in the world with a market cap of $48.31 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Ford Motor Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
USD tracked higher with yields in Tuesday’s session with the Dollar Index (DXY) hitting a high of 103.820, setting a new YTD high and breaking through the key technical levels of the 200-day SMA as well as a 50% Fib resistance level. DXY saw initial weakness in the European morning which emanated from APAC hours amid a firmer post-BoJ Yen but reversed course in the US session as UST yields climbed and earnings disappointments saw US equites struggle. JPY closed the session seeing marginal losses against the USD.
USDJPY did drop to a low of 146.97 after BoJ Governor Ueda delivered a hawkish-leaning press conference after the BoJ policy decision where he said he will certainly foresee further rate hikes when exiting negative interest rate policy. JPY gains failed to hold though with the pair retaking the 148 handle coming into the APAC open. AUD, NZD and CAD were the G10 outperformers, with all making gains against the USD.
NZD and AUD were bolstered by overnight Yuan gains and resilience in commodity prices. CAD was bid ahead of todays Bank of Canada policy meeting where the central bank is expected to hold rates steady, and possibly pushback against rate cut predictions after a hotter than expected December inflation reading.