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The 8 April ceasefire announcement and parallel discussions around a 45-day truce have not resolved the Strait of Hormuz disruption. They have, for now, capped the worst-case scenario, but tanker traffic remains at a fraction of normal levels and Iran's demand for transit fees signals a structural shift, not a temporary one.
What began as a regional conflict has become a global energy shock, and the question for markets is no longer whether Hormuz was disrupted, but how permanently the disruption changes the pricing floor for oil.
Key takeaways
- Around 20 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil and petroleum products normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman, equal to about one-fifth of global oil consumption and roughly 30% of global seaborne oil trade.
- This is a flow shock, not an inventory problem. Oil markets depend on continuous throughput, not static storage.
- If the disruption persists beyond a few weeks, Brent could shift from a short-term spike to a broader price shock, with stagflation risk.
- Tanker traffic through the strait fell from around 135 ships per day to fewer than 15 at the peak of disruption, a reduction of approximately 85%, with more than 150 vessels anchored, diverted, or delayed.
- A two-week ceasefire was announced on 8 April, with 45-day truce negotiations under way. Iran has separately signalled a demand for transit fees on vessels using the strait, which, if formalised, would represent a permanent geopolitical floor on energy costs.
- Markets have begun rotating away from growth and technology exposure toward energy and defence names, reflecting a view that elevated oil is becoming a structural cost rather than a temporary risk premium.
The world’s most critical oil chokepoint
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20 million barrels per day of oil and petroleum products, equal to about 20% of global oil consumption and around 30% of global seaborne oil trade. With global oil demand near 104 million bpd and spare capacity limited, the market was already tightly balanced before the latest escalation.
The strait is also a critical corridor for liquefied natural gas. Around 290 million cubic metres of LNG transited the route each day on average in 2024, representing roughly 20% of global LNG trade, with Asian markets the main destination.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has described Hormuz as the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint, noting that even partial interruptions may trigger outsized price moves. Brent crude has moved above US$100 a barrel, reflecting both physical tightness and a rising geopolitical risk premium.
Tankers idle as flows slow
Shipping and insurance data now point to strain in real time. More than 85 large crude carriers are reported to be stranded in the Persian Gulf, while more than 150 vessels have been anchored, diverted or delayed as operators reassess safety and insurance cover. That would leave an estimated 120 million to 150 million barrels of crude sitting idle at sea.
Those volumes represent only six to seven days of normal Hormuz throughput, or a little more than one day of global oil consumption.
Updated shipping and insurance data now confirm more than 150 vessels have been anchored, diverted, or delayed, up from the 85 initially reported. The 1.3 days of global consumption coverage from idle crude remains the binding constraint: this is a flow shock, not a storage problem, and the ceasefire has not yet translated into meaningfully restored throughput.
A market built on flow, not storage
Oil markets function on continuous movement. Refineries, petrochemical plants and global supply chains are calibrated to steady deliveries along predictable sea lanes. When flows through a chokepoint that carries roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption and around 30% of global seaborne oil trade are interrupted, the system can move from equilibrium to deficit within days.
Spare production capacity, largely concentrated within OPEC, is estimated at only 3 million to 5 million bpd. That falls well short of the volumes at risk if Hormuz flows are severely disrupted.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Inflation risks and macro spillovers
The inflationary impact of an oil shock typically arrives in waves. Higher fuel and energy prices may lift headline inflation quickly as petrol, diesel and power costs move higher.
Over time, higher energy costs may pass through freight, food, manufacturing and services. If the disruption persists, the combination of elevated inflation and slower growth could raise the risk of a stagflationary environment and leave central banks facing a difficult trade-off.
No easy offset, a system with little slack
What makes the current episode particularly acute is the lack of slack in the global system.
Global supply and demand near 103 million to 104 million bpd leave little spare cushion when a chokepoint handling nearly 20 million bpd, or about one-fifth of global oil consumption, is compromised. Estimated spare capacity of 3 million to 5 million bpd, mostly within OPEC, would cover only a fraction of the volumes at risk.
Alternative routes, including pipelines that bypass Hormuz and rerouted shipping, can only partly offset lost flows, and usually at higher cost and with longer lead times.
Bottom line
Until transit through the Strait of Hormuz is restored and seen as credibly secure, global oil flows are likely to remain impaired and risk premia elevated. For investors, policymakers and corporate decision-makers, the core question is whether oil can move where it needs to go, every day, without interruption.
The US stock market saw one of its best days in months, as speculation swirled that the 'bottom' may be in. The indices gained their momentum from better-than-expected earnings and a weakening of the USD, with the USDX dropping to $106.58. With more earnings still to come better than expected results may see the S&P500 and markets break out of their current downtrend.
The Nasdaq ended the trading session up 3.38%, the Dow Jones rose 2.43% and the S&P500 moved 2.78% higher. This should lead to a positive start on the ASX with the XJO futures up 83.2 points or 1.25% at 9:01, Australian Eastern Standard time. The commodity markets saw a solid rebound with Gold and Oil both pushing back from recent losses.
Brent is now back over $100.00 a barrel whilst Gold is hovering above $1700. The news in the foreign exchange market was the drop in the USD, which also saw strength coming into the AUD. The AUDUSD was able to test its recent resistance point at $0.6860 and is now testing the $0.6900 level.
The EUR moved similarly to the AUD also moving up against the USD. There is growing sentiment that ECB members could discuss a 25 or 50 basis point hike at their upcoming meeting. Furthermore, the EU has indicated it will soften sanctions on Russia, and Russian gas giant Gazprom will resume its gas provision to the EU on July 21.
Later today, the market can expect updates from the Reserve Bank of Australia as Governor Lowe speaks and UK CPI figures for the year will be announced as well. Cryptocurrencies saw a nice breakout with the Bitcoin pushing above 24,000 USD as the market pushed the money back into risk assets. The cryptocurrency broke out of a month-long consolidation in a show of strength.
Ethereum followed suit rising almost 6%.
US markets continued their gains overnight as the market continued to rally on the back of the prior day’s Federal Reserve news. The Nasdaq finished up 1.33%. The Dow Jones Index closed 1.23% higher and the S&P 500 ended the session 1.23% higher as well.
In Europe, the FTSE performed well finishing up and 1.28%, and the DAX closed at 0.36% lower than the prior day although it did bounce off the lows of the day to finish mostly flat. Commodities Brent and WTI oil both made significant gains, up 10% on the back of the market losing hope that Russia and Ukraine will end the conflict from the most recent talks. Consequently, sanctions will continue driving up the demand for commodities rose again.
Gold saw a smaller move to the upside rising by 0.78% to 1938 USD. The gold price has continued its bounce off the support level at 1893 USD per ounce. Natural gas also had a strong night as it continues to coil and rise to move 3.68% higher.
Cryptocurrencies had a genera lly flat day. BTC/USD dipped 0.53% but continues to hold in a tight range. Ethereum was up 1.35% as it also continues to consolidate.
FOREX The Bank of England raised their interest rates in line with the Federal reserve 25 basis points to a current rate of 0.75% and saw a volatile day of trading. The GBP/USD initially sold down likely because just one member of the panel had voted for a 50-point hike. The pair ended up closing flat for the day after recovering from the initial sell down.
The AUD has continued to perform well against the USD. The AUD/USD was able to confirm the breakout of its channel, rising 1.21%.
Australian lithium company, Liontown Resources, has secured another offtake agreement for its Kathleen Lithium project. The agreement with global car manufacturer Ford, means that it will now be the third offtake partner as part of the foundational financing for the development of the Project. Lithium is key for the batteries in electric vehicles in order to allow the vehicles to store electrical energy.
The agreement specifies that LTR will supply Ford with up to 150,000 dry metric tonnes, (DMT) per annum of spodumene concentrate. For the first year, they will provide 75,000 DMT, 125,000 DMT in year 2, and then 150,000 DMT for the remaining 3 years of the initial term of the agreement. Lisa Drake, Ford Vice President of EV industrialisation stated, “Ford continues working to source more deeply into the battery supply chain to meet our goals of delivering more than 2 million EV’s annually for our customers by 2026.” This makes up a third of the foundational offtakes for the Kathleen Project with Tesla and LG also committing to offtake agreements with the company.
The current Kathleen project will be able to produce approximately 500,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate per annum before expanding to approximately 700,000 tonnes once production starts. The financing of the development will be supported by an agreement in which, Ford will supply $300,000,000 AUD. This combined with $463,000,000 AUD raised by LTR last year should cover the development of the project until production.
The LTR share price was up by 5.4% to $1.12 as of 11.41 EST 29 June 2022 as the market reacted to the news.
Two junior lithium companies, Core Lithium, (CXO) and Lake Resources, (LKE) have seen aggressive sell offs after motoric rises in the last few years. The Backstory Lithium stocks companies had seen a momentous rise in the past 3 years largely on the back of the push towards renewable energy and electric vehicles which require lithium for their batteries. Core Lithium (CXO) and Lake Resources, (LKE) have been two companies who have benefited a great deal from the rise in interest and price of lithium.
Both companies became so large that on the 20 th June 2022 they were both added to the ASX200 Index or XJO. This was a key milestone as it meant that large funds and ETF’s were required to buy shares of the companies. This created an almost artificial surge in demand as pools of money were flowing into these companies.
Leading up to the sell off Prior to the addition into the XJO, many lithium stocks had suffered through a bloodbath type of sell off. The selloff was caused by rising inflation and interest rate levels disproportionately affecting growth companies which many lithium companies are and also an over extended bull market that was in need of a pullback. As the price of many of these companies began to see their share prices drop such as Tesla and Allkem, LKE and CXO remained relatively strong.
Once again much of this strength was due to institutions and funds holding the price up due to the rebalancing. The sell off Once the rebalancing occurred on 20 June 2022 the buying pressure subsided and the selling took over in a fairly violent manner. LKE in particular saw a massive drop.
Furthermore, the selloff was exacerbated by CEO, Stephen Promnitz, quitting on the same day for no apparent reason. The relative selling volumes of LKE shares were drastically higher than prior periods of trading. The price is now holding just above its support at $0.70 after falling almost 75% from its peak in April 2022.
With the market capitalisation now under 1 billion dollars, what happens next for the company will be intriguing. After such a large capitulation can the share price have a strong bounce, or does it have further to go? The CXO share price has seen a less aggressive dump.
Whilst it was not struck with the same bad news as LKE was with regards to its lead, it still saw a massive sell off although with the volume of selling not at the same level as LKE. The price is just holding above its 200 day moving average and has pulled back just over 51.33% from its peak in April 2022. The next week or so of price action may provide a great deal of insight into where the share price will go next.
With inflationary pressure set to continue and growth companies baring the brunt of the sell off the short term future of both these companies is murky at best.
The operator of KFC and Taco Bell restaurants across Australia, Europe and South East Asia Collins Foods Limited, (CKF) saw its share price shoot up by above 11% on Tuesday after releasing its annual report. The company saw its revenue increase to 1,184,521,000 and increased its profit by an impressive 47%. The company also saw a decrease in its net debt and net leverage ratio, as improved cashflow saw the business become more solvent.
CKF saw particularly good growth in its European sector where it saw revenue increase from $134.9 million to $190.4 million year on year. With inflation being a key concern for most businesses in the short/medium term future, CKF outlined how it will deal with rising costs. The company will focus on providing better value than competitors.
It has also already locked in prices for chickens until the end of 2022 and 95% of its inputs are sourced locally, minimising supply chain pressures and costs. CKF managing Director, Drew O’Malley stated that, “KFC Australia managed to deliver positive same store sales growth for the full year, despite cycling unprecedented growth in the prior year. The KFC brand has never been stronger in Australia, and metrics around quality, value and purchase intent are at record level, particularly important in times like these.
Looking forward the company has already seen positive results since the report was finalised. O’Malley outlined that the proven track record of the brands and their customer appeal ensures that CKF is well positioned to manage the challenging economic conditions. From a technical perspective on the day the annual report came out, the share price gapped up above the 50 day moving average on a high level of volume.
The price has so far been unable to make a large move higher as it consolidates through a relatively strong resistance zone. If the price can break out of the resistance zone a target or $11.04 or a secondary target of $12.84 may be practical targets to aim for.
Global indices ended the week on a high as the US indices all recovered some of their recent sell offs. The Nasdaq was the strongest performer rising 2.05% to close the week. For the week, the index was able to recover some of its recent selling, finishing up 8.18%.
It was also the Technology sector's best week since November 2020. However, it is still down 14.34% from its all-time high. The S&P 500 was up 1.17% and the Dow Jones 0.80% as Wall Street consolidated its gains.
In Europe, the markets were a little weaker, with the DAX finishing flat up 0.17% and the FTSE slightly better up 0.26%. Commodity prices continued to taper as the economic ramifications of the Russian and Ukraine conflict remain steady. Gold has settled at near support at 1900 USD per ounce and the price closed the week at 1920 USD as it holds that level.
Natural Gas continues to hold near its highs finishing the week down 0.54% as it remains in a tight range. Brent Crude Oil followed a similar pattern ending the week just below $108 at 107.96 after bouncing off the low at $97. The price spiked on the back of an escalation of hostilities in Yemen, as Houthi Rebels unleashed an assault on Saudi Arabia’s critical energy facilities.
Previously, a sophisticated strike in 2019 on Aramarco (The world’s largest oil company) facilities took out half of Saudi Arabia’s oil production. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have also so far resisted calls to increase oil production to offset the deficit from the embargo on Russia. FOREX The JPY was pummelled against other currencies as it hit its lowest levels in 4 years against the AUD dropping 3.26% for the week.
Against the USD, the JPY saw its lowest value in 6 years dropping 1.62%. The AUD has continued to be a great performer, with the AUD/USD rising 0.51% as it holds 0.7408 cents. The market will be looking forward to Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Phillip Lowe’s speech on Tuesday for an indication of the likely monetary policy for April.
The AUD has performed well during recent volatility relative to other global currencies due to high commodity prices which have supported the AUD. The EUR/USD and GBP/USD both have been following a steady pattern as Ukraine and Russian conflict has settled. Both pairs remain below their recent resistance.