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The 8 April ceasefire announcement and parallel discussions around a 45-day truce have not resolved the Strait of Hormuz disruption. They have, for now, capped the worst-case scenario, but tanker traffic remains at a fraction of normal levels and Iran's demand for transit fees signals a structural shift, not a temporary one.
What began as a regional conflict has become a global energy shock, and the question for markets is no longer whether Hormuz was disrupted, but how permanently the disruption changes the pricing floor for oil.
Key takeaways
- Around 20 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil and petroleum products normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman, equal to about one-fifth of global oil consumption and roughly 30% of global seaborne oil trade.
- This is a flow shock, not an inventory problem. Oil markets depend on continuous throughput, not static storage.
- If the disruption persists beyond a few weeks, Brent could shift from a short-term spike to a broader price shock, with stagflation risk.
- Tanker traffic through the strait fell from around 135 ships per day to fewer than 15 at the peak of disruption, a reduction of approximately 85%, with more than 150 vessels anchored, diverted, or delayed.
- A two-week ceasefire was announced on 8 April, with 45-day truce negotiations under way. Iran has separately signalled a demand for transit fees on vessels using the strait, which, if formalised, would represent a permanent geopolitical floor on energy costs.
- Markets have begun rotating away from growth and technology exposure toward energy and defence names, reflecting a view that elevated oil is becoming a structural cost rather than a temporary risk premium.
The world’s most critical oil chokepoint
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20 million barrels per day of oil and petroleum products, equal to about 20% of global oil consumption and around 30% of global seaborne oil trade. With global oil demand near 104 million bpd and spare capacity limited, the market was already tightly balanced before the latest escalation.
The strait is also a critical corridor for liquefied natural gas. Around 290 million cubic metres of LNG transited the route each day on average in 2024, representing roughly 20% of global LNG trade, with Asian markets the main destination.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has described Hormuz as the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint, noting that even partial interruptions may trigger outsized price moves. Brent crude has moved above US$100 a barrel, reflecting both physical tightness and a rising geopolitical risk premium.
Tankers idle as flows slow
Shipping and insurance data now point to strain in real time. More than 85 large crude carriers are reported to be stranded in the Persian Gulf, while more than 150 vessels have been anchored, diverted or delayed as operators reassess safety and insurance cover. That would leave an estimated 120 million to 150 million barrels of crude sitting idle at sea.
Those volumes represent only six to seven days of normal Hormuz throughput, or a little more than one day of global oil consumption.
Updated shipping and insurance data now confirm more than 150 vessels have been anchored, diverted, or delayed, up from the 85 initially reported. The 1.3 days of global consumption coverage from idle crude remains the binding constraint: this is a flow shock, not a storage problem, and the ceasefire has not yet translated into meaningfully restored throughput.
A market built on flow, not storage
Oil markets function on continuous movement. Refineries, petrochemical plants and global supply chains are calibrated to steady deliveries along predictable sea lanes. When flows through a chokepoint that carries roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption and around 30% of global seaborne oil trade are interrupted, the system can move from equilibrium to deficit within days.
Spare production capacity, largely concentrated within OPEC, is estimated at only 3 million to 5 million bpd. That falls well short of the volumes at risk if Hormuz flows are severely disrupted.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Inflation risks and macro spillovers
The inflationary impact of an oil shock typically arrives in waves. Higher fuel and energy prices may lift headline inflation quickly as petrol, diesel and power costs move higher.
Over time, higher energy costs may pass through freight, food, manufacturing and services. If the disruption persists, the combination of elevated inflation and slower growth could raise the risk of a stagflationary environment and leave central banks facing a difficult trade-off.
No easy offset, a system with little slack
What makes the current episode particularly acute is the lack of slack in the global system.
Global supply and demand near 103 million to 104 million bpd leave little spare cushion when a chokepoint handling nearly 20 million bpd, or about one-fifth of global oil consumption, is compromised. Estimated spare capacity of 3 million to 5 million bpd, mostly within OPEC, would cover only a fraction of the volumes at risk.
Alternative routes, including pipelines that bypass Hormuz and rerouted shipping, can only partly offset lost flows, and usually at higher cost and with longer lead times.
Bottom line
Until transit through the Strait of Hormuz is restored and seen as credibly secure, global oil flows are likely to remain impaired and risk premia elevated. For investors, policymakers and corporate decision-makers, the core question is whether oil can move where it needs to go, every day, without interruption.
Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) announced the latest financial results before the US market open on Tuesday. World’s largest supermarket chain achieved revenue of $173.388 billion in the fourth quarter vs. $170.854 billion expected. Revenue grew by 5.7% year-over-year.
Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $1.80 (up from $1.71 the year prior) vs. $1.643 per share expected. Full-year revenue grew by 6% from the year before $648.1 billion. EPS grew by 5.7% to $6.65 per share.
Walmart also announced that it will acquire electronics company VIZIO HOLDING CORP. in a deal worth $2.3 billion. Company overview Founded: July 2, 1962 Headquarters: Bentonville, Arkansas, United Kingdom Number of employees: 2.1 million (2023) Industry: Retail Key people: Greg Penner (Chairman), Doug McMillon (President and CEO) CEO commentary Doug McMillon, CEO of Walmart had this to say to investors: ''Our team delivered a great quarter, finishing off a strong year. We crossed $100 billion in eCommerce sales and drove share gains as our customer experience metrics improved, even during our highest volume days leading up to the holidays.
We’re proud of the team and excited about building on our momentum as we work to bring prices down for our customers and members.'' Stock reaction Shares rose by over 3% during Tuesday's trading session, trading at $175.75 a share. Stock performance 5 day: +3.33% 1 month: +8.36% 3 months: +13.31% Year-to-date: +11.62% 1 year: +20.16% Walmart stock price targets JPMorgan Chase & Co.: $176 Stifel Nicolaus: $175 Deutsche Bank: $190 Telsey Advisory Group: $185 Oppenheimer: $185 Morgan Stanley: $168 BMO Capital Markets: $175 Truist Financial: $170 Royal Bank of Canada: $168 Evercore ISI: $177 Jefferies Financial Group: $195 Stephens: $190 Tigress Financial: $196 Piper Sandler: $210 Walmart Inc. is the 17 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $473.78 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Walmart Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
US manufacturer of building materials Vulcan Materials Company (NYSE: VMC) announced its latest financial results on Friday. Vulcan Materials reported revenue that fell short of analyst estimates. Revenue reached $1.834 billion for Q4 2023 (up by 5.88% year-over-year) vs. $1.837 billion expected.
Earnings per share (EPS) topped expectations at $1.46 vs. $1.398 per share expected. EPS was up by 35.18% year-over-year. Full year revenue was up by 6.38% from 2022 at $7.782 billion.
EPS reached $7 per share, up from $5.11 the year before. Company overview Founded: 1909 Headquarters: Birmingham, Alabama United States Number of employees: 12,000 (2023) Industry: Construction materials Key people: Tom Hill (Chief Executive Officer) Suzanne H. Wood (Chief Financial Officer) Denson N.
Franklin III (General Counsel) CEO commentary "2023 was an exceptional year for Vulcan Materials. We generated over $2 billion in Adjusted EBITDA, a 24 percent increase over the prior year, expanded EBITDA margin by 360 basis points and generated $1.5 billion of operating cash flow that can be deployed to grow our business. Our industry leading aggregates cash gross profit per ton increased each quarter on a year-over-year basis and was $9.46 per ton for the full year, a 21 percent improvement over the prior year.
Six consecutive years of unit profitability improvement during a continuously shifting macro backdrop demonstrates the durability of our uniquely positioned aggregates-led business. We carry momentum into 2024, and our focus is the same - compounding unit margins through all parts of the cycle and creating value for our shareholders through improving returns on capital," Tom Hill, CEO of Vulcan Materials said in a statement to shareholders. Stock reaction The stock was up by over 5% at the end of the trading session on Friday at $255.15 a share – a new all-time closing price.
Stock performance 5 day: +6.31% 1 month: +12.86% 3 months: +20.16% Year-to-date: +12.40% 1 year: +37.44% Vulcan Materials stock price targets Raymond James: $240 Royal Bank of Canada: $236 Morgan Stanley: $208 Stifle Nicolaus: $279 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $245 DA Davidson: $260 Barclays: $250 Citigroup: $260 Stephens: $260 Loop Capital: $260 Truist Financial: $260 Jefferies Financial Group: $265 The Goldman Sachs Group: $212 Vulcan Materials Company is the 555 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $33.90 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Vulcan Materials Company (NYSE: VMC) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Vulcan Materials Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
The most anticipated US earnings announcement is coming up with NVDA due to report fiscal Quarter ending Jan 2024 earnings after the Wednesday US market close. NVDA has seen a meteoric rise, quintupling in 2023 and up more than 40% so far in 2024, being the number one stock riding AI mania, making this earnings report one that all investors will be paying attention to. Options markets are pricing in a +/- 11% move to this earnings report, which is exceptional considering the 1.8T size of the company, with Call/Put pricing showing a bias to the upside, which is not surprising with NVDA beating analyst estimates seven of the last eight earnings reports.
There has also been a number of upward revisions in the last four weeks which can be taken as a bullish sign. Source:Nasdaq.com Saying that, NVDA did have the biggest fall of the year on Tuesday, dropping over 4% as some longs booked profits ahead of earnings, so a beat on these figures is certainly not unanimous. This selling action selling could also be an ominous sign of the reaction after earnings if results don’t meet the lofty expectations of Wall St.
Either way traders will likely be rushing to enter or exit the stock depending on the result, so a big move in either direction is probable. NVDA is scheduled to report earnings after Wednesdays US market close.
US home improvement chain Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) reported Q4 financial results before the opening bell on Wall Street on Tuesday. The company reported revenue of $34.786 billion for the quarter (down by 2.9% year-over-year) vs. $34.643 billion expected. Earnings per share also topped analyst estimates at $2.82 (down by 14.54% year-over-year) vs. $2.768 per share expected.
Full-year 2023 revenue reached $152.7 billion, down by 3% vs. 2022. EPS was down by 9.5% year-over-year at $15.11 per share. Company overview Founded: February 6, 1978 Headquarters: Atlanta, Georgia, United States Number of employees: 471,600 (2023) Industry: Retail Key people: Ted Decker (President & CEO), Craig Menear (Chairman) CEO commentary "After three years of exceptional growth for our business, 2023 was a year of moderation," Ted Decker, CEO of Home Depot said in a letter to investors. "During fiscal 2023, we focused on several initiatives to strengthen the business while also staying true to our strategic investments of creating the best interconnected experience, growing our pro wallet share through our unique ecosystem of capabilities, and building new stores.
We remain excited about the future for home improvement and our ability to grow share in our large and fragmented market, which we estimate to be over $950 billion. I also want to thank our associates for their hard work and dedication to serving our customers and communities," Decker concluded. Stock reaction The stock was flat at the end of the trading session on Tuesday at $363.50 a share.
Stock performance 5 day: -1.34% 1 month: +1.08% 3 months: +16.99% Year-to-date: +4.04% 1 year: +13.40% Home Depot stock price targets Stifel Nicolaus: $366 Telsey Advisory Group: $335 Robert W. Baird: $370 The Goldman Sachs Group: $393 Wells Fargo & Company: $400 TD Cowen: $415 Piper Sandler: $400 Wedbush: $380 Barclays: $372 Truist Financial: $387 Morgan Stanley: $335 Guggenheim: $340 Royal Bank of Canada: $299 HSBC: $365 Home Depot Inc. is the 25 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $358.38 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Home Depot Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
With the US closed for a holiday FX markets on Monday struggled to find much direction though China re-opening in the green after an extended leave did lend some support to the Aussie dollar ahead of todays RBA minutes. The February 6th RBA meeting saw a statement that had a bit of both ways, acknowledging broad progress on the inflation front but also pointing to the concerning level of inflation despite recent progress. This was seen as a hawkish leaning hold, seeing AUDUSD rally modestly on the day, today’s minutes will fill in the gaps as to the discussion between RBA members leading to the official decision.
AUDUSD Technical analysis AUDUSD has bounced in the last week after setting new 2024 lows at 0.6442 on the 13 th of February. The steady advance retaking the 0.65 handle and breaching the February resistance level of 0.6525, which has so far held as support. AUDUSD has hit some technical resistance levels here, firstly the 100 Day SMA, which has so far capped further price increase, and further to the upside is the 200 Day SMA and 50% Fib level at around 0.6580 which could also provide technical resistance to any further Aussie upside.
Technical support to the downside could be found firstly at the 61.8 fib level at 0.6513, failing that the 2024 lows at 0.6450. For Aussie traders, along with the RBA minutes today, the main data point will be Wednesdays Wage Price Index, a gauge the RBA has referenced in regards to their rate decisions and could be a big Aussie mover if outside of expected range.
USD Dollar saw mild strength in Monday’s session, DXY trading either side of the psychological 104.00 level but again being capped to the upside by the 100-day SMA resistance. The was little in the way of a catalyst with no tier one data released, that will change today with US CPI figures released, which will help market participants and the Fed gauge the timing of the first rate cut. USDJPY was mostly flat for the second straight session, volume was low with Japan away for a holiday.
USDJPY hit a low of 148.94 but failed to stay beneath 149.00 for long as a rise in US yields dragged the pair higher and held it above the key 149 level. AUDUSD rallied through the 0.6525 resistance level, this will be a key level to watch for Aussie traders today to see if it can re-establish itself as support. NZD lagged despite hawkish RBNZ commentary where RBNZ Governor Orr said inflation is still too high, NZDUSD finding resistance at the February highs and dropping to a low of 0.6120.
This also saw AUDNZD have its biggest up day of 2024 hitting a high of 1.0650 and retracing all and then some of Fridays steep drop. Attention turns to the New Zealand inflation expectations and RBA's Kohler both on Tuesday.