Market news & insights
Stay ahead of the markets with expert insights, news, and technical analysis to guide your trading decisions.
The 8 April ceasefire announcement and parallel discussions around a 45-day truce have not resolved the Strait of Hormuz disruption. They have, for now, capped the worst-case scenario, but tanker traffic remains at a fraction of normal levels and Iran's demand for transit fees signals a structural shift, not a temporary one.
What began as a regional conflict has become a global energy shock, and the question for markets is no longer whether Hormuz was disrupted, but how permanently the disruption changes the pricing floor for oil.
Key takeaways
- Around 20 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil and petroleum products normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman, equal to about one-fifth of global oil consumption and roughly 30% of global seaborne oil trade.
- This is a flow shock, not an inventory problem. Oil markets depend on continuous throughput, not static storage.
- If the disruption persists beyond a few weeks, Brent could shift from a short-term spike to a broader price shock, with stagflation risk.
- Tanker traffic through the strait fell from around 135 ships per day to fewer than 15 at the peak of disruption, a reduction of approximately 85%, with more than 150 vessels anchored, diverted, or delayed.
- A two-week ceasefire was announced on 8 April, with 45-day truce negotiations under way. Iran has separately signalled a demand for transit fees on vessels using the strait, which, if formalised, would represent a permanent geopolitical floor on energy costs.
- Markets have begun rotating away from growth and technology exposure toward energy and defence names, reflecting a view that elevated oil is becoming a structural cost rather than a temporary risk premium.
The world’s most critical oil chokepoint
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20 million barrels per day of oil and petroleum products, equal to about 20% of global oil consumption and around 30% of global seaborne oil trade. With global oil demand near 104 million bpd and spare capacity limited, the market was already tightly balanced before the latest escalation.
The strait is also a critical corridor for liquefied natural gas. Around 290 million cubic metres of LNG transited the route each day on average in 2024, representing roughly 20% of global LNG trade, with Asian markets the main destination.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has described Hormuz as the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint, noting that even partial interruptions may trigger outsized price moves. Brent crude has moved above US$100 a barrel, reflecting both physical tightness and a rising geopolitical risk premium.
Tankers idle as flows slow
Shipping and insurance data now point to strain in real time. More than 85 large crude carriers are reported to be stranded in the Persian Gulf, while more than 150 vessels have been anchored, diverted or delayed as operators reassess safety and insurance cover. That would leave an estimated 120 million to 150 million barrels of crude sitting idle at sea.
Those volumes represent only six to seven days of normal Hormuz throughput, or a little more than one day of global oil consumption.
Updated shipping and insurance data now confirm more than 150 vessels have been anchored, diverted, or delayed, up from the 85 initially reported. The 1.3 days of global consumption coverage from idle crude remains the binding constraint: this is a flow shock, not a storage problem, and the ceasefire has not yet translated into meaningfully restored throughput.
A market built on flow, not storage
Oil markets function on continuous movement. Refineries, petrochemical plants and global supply chains are calibrated to steady deliveries along predictable sea lanes. When flows through a chokepoint that carries roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption and around 30% of global seaborne oil trade are interrupted, the system can move from equilibrium to deficit within days.
Spare production capacity, largely concentrated within OPEC, is estimated at only 3 million to 5 million bpd. That falls well short of the volumes at risk if Hormuz flows are severely disrupted.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Inflation risks and macro spillovers
The inflationary impact of an oil shock typically arrives in waves. Higher fuel and energy prices may lift headline inflation quickly as petrol, diesel and power costs move higher.
Over time, higher energy costs may pass through freight, food, manufacturing and services. If the disruption persists, the combination of elevated inflation and slower growth could raise the risk of a stagflationary environment and leave central banks facing a difficult trade-off.
No easy offset, a system with little slack
What makes the current episode particularly acute is the lack of slack in the global system.
Global supply and demand near 103 million to 104 million bpd leave little spare cushion when a chokepoint handling nearly 20 million bpd, or about one-fifth of global oil consumption, is compromised. Estimated spare capacity of 3 million to 5 million bpd, mostly within OPEC, would cover only a fraction of the volumes at risk.
Alternative routes, including pipelines that bypass Hormuz and rerouted shipping, can only partly offset lost flows, and usually at higher cost and with longer lead times.
Bottom line
Until transit through the Strait of Hormuz is restored and seen as credibly secure, global oil flows are likely to remain impaired and risk premia elevated. For investors, policymakers and corporate decision-makers, the core question is whether oil can move where it needs to go, every day, without interruption.
Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) released their previous quarter financial results before the market open on Tuesday. The US telecommunication giant topped Wall Street analyst expectations on both revenue and earnings per share. The company reported total revenue of $34.1 billion vs. $34.056 billion expected.
Earnings per share at $1.31 a share vs. $1.28 a share forecast. "Verizon delivered another strong earnings performance this quarter,” Verizon Chief Financial Officer Matt Ellis said about the latest results. Verizon Chairman and CEO Hans Vestberg commented on the past years results for the company and made predictions for the year ahead: "2021 was a transformational year for Verizon that will serve as a catalyst for us." "We delivered on all of our goals in 2021 and made great progress on our five paths of growth, finishing the year with strong operating and financial momentum. As we move into 2022, we have the necessary assets to realize our strategy that we laid out in 2019.
We are laser focused on executing our 5G strategy and providing value to our customers, shareholders, employees, and society, as 2022 will be the most exciting year yet for Verizon," he added. Verizon Communications Inc. chart (Weekly) Verizon share price little changed during the trading day on Tuesday, down by around 0.31%. The stock is down by around 9.63% in the past year at $52.84 a share.
Verizon Communications Inc. is the 45 th largest company in the world and with a total market cap of $220.99 billion. You can trade Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Verizon Communications Inc., TradingView, GO Markets MT5, CompaniesMarketCap
Tesla Inc. (TSLA) reported its Q4 2021 results after the market close on Wednesday. The world’s largest automaker exceeded analyst expectations on both revenue and earnings per share. The company reported total revenue of $17.719 billion in the fourth quarter vs. $17.132 billion expected.
Earnings per share reported at $2.54 vs. $2.36 per share forecast. Tesla produced 305,840 cars in the fourth quarter and deliveries reach 308,600 vehicles. Last year, Elon Musk’s company delivered a total of 930,422 vehicles. ''2021 was a breakthrough year for Tesla.
There should no longer be doubt about the viability and profitability of electric vehicles.'' ''After a successful 2021, our focus shifts to the future. We aim to increase our production as quickly as we can, not only through ramping production at new factories in Austin and Berlin, but also by maximizing output from our established factories in Fremont and Shanghai. We believe competitiveness in the EV market will be determined by the ability to add capacity across the supply chain and ramp production.'' ''While 2021 was a defining year for our company, we believe we are just at the very early stages of our journey.
Thank you for being part of it,'' Tesla said in a letter to shareholders. Tesla chart (Weekly) Share price of Tesla ended the trading day up by 2.07% on Wednesday at $936.70 a share. The stock is up by 8.48% in the past year.
Tesla is the 6 th largest company in the world and with a total market cap of $941.40 billion. You can trade Tesla Inc. (TSLA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Tesla Inc., TradingView, GO Markets MT5, CompaniesMarketCap
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) reported its Q4 earnings before the opening bell on Wall Street on Tuesday. Let’s take a closer look at how the pharmaceutical giant performed in the previous quarter. The company reported total revenue of $24.804 billion in Q4 (up by 10.4% from the same period in 2020), below analyst forecast of $25.276 billion.
Earnings per share at $2.13 a share in the previous quarter (up by 14.5%, pretty much in line with analyst forecast of $2.12 a share. Joaquin Duato, Chief Executive Officer commented on the Q4 and 2021 results: ''Our 2021 performance reflects continued strength across all segments of our business. Guided by Our Credo, I am honoured to assume the role of CEO, leading our global teams in continuing our work to deliver life-changing solutions to consumers, patients, and health care providers.'' ''Given our strong results, financial profile, and innovative pipeline we are well positioned for success in 2022 and beyond,'' Duato added.
Johnson & Johnson chart (Monthly) Share price trading higher following the latest results, up by around 2% during the trading day on Tuesday at $166.66 per share. Johnson & Johnson is the 12 th largest company in the world and with a total market cap of $438.19 billion. You can trade Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Johnson & Johnson, TradingView, GO Markets MT5, CompaniesMarketCap
Goldman Sachs reported its latest financial results for the previous quarter before the US market open on Tuesday. Let’s take a closer look at the key numbers. The company reported higher than expected revenue for Q4 2021 of $12.639 billion vs. $12.044 billion estimate.
Earnings per share (EPS) at $10.81 per share in Q4 2021, below Wall Street analyst expectations of $11.77 per share. In 2021, Goldman Sachs generated record net revenues of $59.34 billion, record net earnings of $21.64 billion and record diluted EPS of $59.45 – all significantly surpassing previous records. David Solomon, Chairman and CEO commented on last year’s performance: ''2021 was a record year for Goldman Sachs.
The firm’s extraordinary performance is a testament to the strength of our client franchise and people. Moving forward, our leadership team remains committed to growing Goldman Sachs, diversifying our businesses and delivering strong returns for shareholders.'' Goldman Sachs chart (1Y) Shares of Goldman tumbled on Tuesday following the latest results, down by around 7%. The stock is up by 19% in the last year at $350.60 per share.
Goldman Sachs is the 117 th largest company in the world and with a total market cap of $127.07 billion. You can trade Goldman Sachs (GS) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Goldman Sachs, TradingView, CompaniesMarketCap
Bank of America announced its 2021 Q4 financial results before the opening bell on Wall Street on Wednesday. World’s 2 nd largest bank reported total revenue of $22.06 billion, falling short of analyst estimate of $22.18 billion. Earnings per share at $0.82 a share in the previous quarter, above analyst forecast of $0.77 a share.
Chairman and CEO, Brian Moynihan commented on the latest results: "Our fourth-quarter results were driven by strong organic growth, record levels of digital engagement, and an improving economy. We grew loans by $51 billion and added $100 billion of deposits during the quarter, further strengthening our position as the leader in retail deposits." "We earned a record $32 billion in 2021, with every business line solidly contributing. In Consumer, we added millions of new credit card accounts and nearly a million net new checking accounts as we continued to demonstrate the value we provide through our physical and digital capabilities.
Wealth Management had record client flows and the strongest client acquisition numbers since before the pandemic. Investment Banking had its best year ever and Global Markets had its highest sales and trading revenue in a decade, led by record Equities performance as we invested in the business." "We also continued to support our communities, helping them address some of society’s biggest challenges, including the environment, the pandemic, racial equality and economic opportunity. I want to thank our talented teammates across the globe for all their work over the past year," he added.
Bank of America chart (1Y) Share price of Bank of America little changed during the trading day on Wednesday. The stock is up by 45% in the past year at $46.58 per share. Bank of America is the 20 th largest company in the world and with a total market cap of $383.21 billion.
You can trade Bank of America (BAC) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Bank of America, TradingView, CompaniesMarketCap
NIO Inc. (NIO) reported its latest delivery numbers for November on Wednesday, setting a new monthly following disappointing results in October. The Chinese electric vehicle company delivered 10,878 cars last month – an increase of 105.6% year-over-year. The deliveries in November consisted of: 2,683 ES8s – the company’s six-seater or seven-seater flagship premium smart electric SUV 4,713 ES6s – the company’s five-seater high-performance premium smart electric SUV 3,482 EC6s – the company’s five-seater premium smart electric coupe SUV NIO has delivered a total of 80,940 cars in 2021 and 156,581 in total as of 30 th November, 2021.
NIO Inc. Chart (1Y) Shares of NIO were trading higher on Wednesday following the latest delivery numbers, up by around 2% on the day. The stock is down by 16.61% in the past year at $40.19 a share.
NIO is the 13 th largest automaker in the world with a market cap of $63.79 billion. You can trade NIO Inc. (NIO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Click here for more information.
Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: NIO, TradingView, CompaniesMarketCap