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4月8日宣布的停火以及围绕45天休战的平行讨论并未解决霍尔木兹海峡的混乱问题。目前,他们已经限制了最坏的情况,但油轮运输量仍处于正常水平的一小部分,伊朗对过境费的需求预示着结构性转变,而不是暂时的转变。
最初的地区冲突已成为全球能源冲击,市场面临的问题不再是霍尔木兹是否受到干扰,而是这种混乱对石油的最低定价产生了多大的永久性影响。
关键要点
- 每天约有2000万桶(桶)的石油和石油产品通常通过伊朗和阿曼之间的霍尔木兹海峡,相当于全球石油消费量的约五分之一,约占全球海运石油贸易的30%。
- 这是流量冲击,不是库存问题。石油市场依赖于持续的吞吐量,而不是静态存储。
- 如果中断持续超过几周,布伦特原油可能会从短期飙升转向更广泛的价格冲击,存在滞胀风险。
- 穿越海峡的油轮运输量从每天约135艘下降到中断高峰期的不到15艘船只,减少了约85%,超过150艘船只停泊、改道或延误。
- 4月8日宣布了为期两周的停火,为期45天的休战谈判正在进行之中。伊朗已分别表示要求对使用该海峡的船只收取过境费,如果正式确定,这将是能源成本的永久地缘政治最低标准。
- 市场已经开始从增长和技术敞口转向能源和国防企业,这反映了人们的观点,即石油价格上涨正在成为结构性成本,而不是暂时的风险溢价。
世界上最关键的石油阻塞点
霍尔木兹海峡每天处理大约2000万桶石油和石油产品,相当于全球石油消费量的20%和全球海运石油贸易的30%左右。由于全球石油需求接近1.04亿桶/日,且剩余产能有限,在最近的升级之前,市场已经处于紧密平衡状态。
该海峡也是液化天然气的重要走廊。2024年,平均每天约有2.9亿立方米的液化天然气通过该路线,约占全球液化天然气贸易的20%,亚洲市场是主要目的地。
国际能源署(IEA)将霍尔木兹描述为世界上最重要的石油运输阻塞点,并指出,即使是部分中断也可能引发价格的大幅波动。布伦特原油已跌破每桶100美元,这既反映了物质紧张,也反映了地缘政治风险溢价的上升。

由于流量减慢,油轮处于空转状态
现在,航运和保险数据实时显示压力。据报道,超过85艘大型原油运输船滞留在波斯湾,而由于运营商重新评估安全和保险,有150多艘船舶停泊、改道或延误。据估计,这将使1.2亿至1.5亿桶原油在海上闲置。
这些量仅代表霍尔木兹正常吞吐量的六到七天,或略高于一天的全球石油消费。
最新的航运和保险数据现在证实,有150多艘船只停泊、改道或延误,高于最初报告的85艘船只。闲置原油的1.3天全球消费保障仍然是约束性制约因素:这是流量冲击,不是储存问题,停火尚未转化为产量的实质性恢复。
建立在流量而不是存储基础上的市场
石油市场在持续波动中运作。炼油厂、石化厂和全球供应链经过调整,可以沿着可预测的海道稳定交付。当流经占全球石油消耗量约五分之一和全球海运石油贸易约30%的阻塞点时,该系统可以在几天之内从平衡变为赤字。
剩余产能主要集中在欧佩克内,估计仅为每天300万至500万桶。这远低于霍尔木兹水流受到严重干扰时面临的风险交易量。
通货膨胀风险和宏观溢出效应
石油冲击的通货膨胀影响通常以波浪形式出现。随着汽油、柴油和电力成本的上涨,燃料和能源价格的上涨可能会迅速提振总体通货膨胀。
随着时间的推移,更高的能源成本可能会流向货运、食品、制造业和服务业。如果混乱持续下去,通货膨胀率上升和增长放缓相结合,可能会增加滞胀环境的风险,使中央银行面临艰难的权衡。
不容易抵消,系统几乎没有松弛
当前局势之所以特别严重,是因为全球体系缺乏松弛。
当处理近2,000万桶/日(约占全球石油消耗量的五分之一)的阻塞点受到损害时,将近1.03亿至1.04亿桶的全球供需几乎没有备用缓冲。估计每天300万至500万桶的剩余产能,主要在欧佩克内部,只能覆盖风险产量的一小部分。
替代路线,包括绕过霍尔木兹的管道和改道运输,只能部分抵消流量的损失,而且通常成本更高,交货时间更长。
底线
在霍尔木兹海峡的过境恢复并被视为可靠安全之前,全球石油流动可能继续受损,风险溢价上升。对于投资者、政策制定者和企业决策者来说,核心问题是石油能否每天不间断地转移到需要去的地方。


Salesforce financial results announced Salesforce.com Inc. (CRM) reported its latest financial results for its fiscal second quarter on Wednesday. World’s leading customer relationship management (CRM) company reported revenue of $7.72 billion (up 22% year-over-year) vs. $7.692 billion expected. Earnings per share also topped analyst estimates at $1.19 per share for the quarter vs. $1.03 per share expected. ''We had another strong quarter, with revenue of $7.7B growing 22% year-over-year and 26% in constant currency, showing yet again the durability of our business model,'' Marc Benioff, Chair and Co-CEO of Salesforce said following the latest results. ''And, we’re thrilled to initiate our first-ever share repurchase program to continue to deliver incredible value to our shareholders on our path to $50 billion in revenue in FY26,'' Benioff added. ''Our results demonstrate the strength and diversity of our product portfolio across regions, industries and segments,'' said Bret Taylor, Co-CEO of Salesforce. ''In this more measured buying environment, our Customer 360 portfolio is even more strategic and relevant as our customers focus on productivity, efficiency and time to value,'' Taylor concluded.
The company expects revenue of $7.82 to $7.83 billion for the fiscal third quarter Salesforce.com Inc. (CRM) chart The stock was up by 2.28% at the end of Wednesday’s session at $180.19 a share. The stock fell by around 5% in the after-hours due to future outlook. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 month -0.16% 3 months +12.75% Year-to-date -29.17% 1 year -30.99% Salesforce price targets Citigroup $189 BMO Capital $223 Mizuho $245 Morgan Stanley $273 Piper Sandler $220 Deutsche Bank $260 JP Morgan $275 Barclays $218 Wells Fargo $235 Salesforce.com Inc. is the 58 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $179.10 billion.
You can trade Salesforce.com Inc. (CRM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Salesforce.com Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap

XAUUSD Analysis 10 – 14 April 2023 The gold price outlook is positive in the medium term. As last week's closing of the buying bar was above the 1960 support or the latest high in price on the Weekly timeframe, it indicates continued buying momentum that will allow the price of gold to recover. It can rise further to test the 2070 resistance level, which is a key resistance at the weekly time frame level or the price level that gold has ever hit the most in history.
But even so, the price of gold remains negative in the short term. There may be a fall to adjust the consolidation or sideways around the 1985 and 1976 support, which are important support levels in the H4 and H1 timeframes that are worth watching. because if the price cannot go down deeper than the above two support levels The direction of gold prices is likely to continue to rise. Corresponds to the large timeframe in the medium term where the price is Up Trend.
And in the event that the price of gold cannot continue to rise, but there is a breakout of the 1985 and 1976 support levels, it can come down with continuous selling pressure. Daytime support at the 1960 price level or the latest price high in the Weekly timeframe are the next targets to watch. AUDUSD Analysis 10 – 14 April 2023 AUDNZD price bears a negative view on the short and medium term.
Due to the continuous decline in the Weekly timeframe, the price is likely to bear down and can continue to fall. After the price has corrected sideways on the Daily timeframe, when looking at the H4 timeframe, a sharp swing of the price can be seen, which is a sideways movement between support 1.06730 and resistance 1.07930. Rara then broke out the support 1.06730 down with a sell candlestick with more momentum than a buy candlestick.
Therefore, it can be expected that Price may continue to decline to retest the support 1.04690 or the previous Low on the Weekly timeframe. GBPUSD Analysis 10 – 14 April 2023 The GBPUSD trend is currently rallying to test the 1.24470 resistance with continued buying momentum as seen by the weekly timeframe buying pressure candlestick, although last week's closing price was truncated. Any intestine dumper Still, the price has yet to show a strong sell candle on the Weekly timeframe, indicating a clear uptrend in both the short and medium term.
Forecasting that price, there is a tendency for the price to correct sideways at the 1.24470 resistance area before rising to test the next resistance at 1.26660 on the daily timeframe level, where the key support is 1.22700, which is the time level support. The H4 frame predicts that the price may retrace to test. If the price cannot stand on the resistance of 1.24470 and continue to rise

Equity markets US markets dipped last night with the Dow finishing down for the first time in 4 sessions. This came as the streak of better-than-expected economic data came to an end with initial jobless claims unexpectedly jumping to a one-month high last week. Retail giant and Dow 30 component Walmart (WMT) also weighed on the index dropping 6.5 per cent after it missed quarterly profit estimates and predicted a low-single digit rise in fiscal 2022 net sales.
Source: Yahoo Finance Whilst US Markets are flat for the week, UK and Asian equity markets have performed well with signs of China's economic recovery continuing lifting the Hang Seng and good news on UK vaccination progress sending the FTSE 100 higher. Source: Bloomberg The ASX200 again hit post COVID highs this week before pulling back slightly. Optimism in the Australian economic recovery was bolstered this week with another drop in the unemployment rate and vaccine rollouts imminent.
Forex markets FX markets were mixed this week, the US dollar strengthened modestly against most major currencies, with the exceptions of CAD, AUD and GBP. Source: Bloomberg Resource linked currencies AUD and CAD performed well as prices for Copper and Iron ore continued to run hot, with increased demand from China and ongoing COVID related supply issues underpinning the price of these resources. Source: marketindex.com.au GBP outperformed this week amid continued optimism over the nation’s vaccine rollout, with the pound touching the highest level versus the euro since March last year.
Source: GO MT4 Commodities Gold Spot gold (XAUUSD) continued its downtrend setting a new low price for 2021 and within touching distance of the lows set in November. With markets risk on as vaccines rollout and positive signs of an global economic recovery the lustre has been taken off the precious metal for now. Source: GO MT4 Oil US crude prices broke above $60 per barrel touching as high as $62, a level not seen since January 2020.
Severe winter storms and rolling blackouts in the oil producing state of Texas have crippled the oil industry, causing an output drop of more than 4 million barrels a day - almost 40% of the nation’s crude production. Monday, 22 February 2021 Indicative Index Dividends Dividends are in Points ASX200 WS30 US500 US2000 NDX100 CAC40 STOXX50 0.821 6.645 0.323 0.011 0 0 0 ESP35 ITA40 FTSE100 DAX30 HK50 JP225 INDIA50 0 0 0 0 0 0 10.131

We had an eventful week on global markets with the inauguration of a new US administration and a dovish stance from the European Central bank fuelling hopes of extended fiscal stimulus in the new year. Equity markets Risk appetite got a boost this week from a push by US authorities for nearly $2 trillion in additional spending and plans to jumpstart a federal response to the COVID pandemic. US equity markets had the best post inauguration performance since the 1980’s driving the S&P 500, Dow Jones and NASDAQ indices to record highs.
The NASDAQ was also helped along by big beats from Netflix and Intel who reported earnings this week. With this lead Australia's share market hit 11-month highs, with help from an improved unemployment rate supporting investor optimism. European markets also performed well after ECB’s decision to reconfirm its very accommodative monetary policy last night.
Source: Twitter COVID With Executive Orders from the new US administration seeking to accelerate the rollout of vaccines and the seeming peak in US COVID cases there was optimism this week from major Wall St analysts that we could be seeing “the beginning of the end of the COVID crisis" in the US. Goldman's top economist Jan Hatzius, writes that "a vaccine-driven reduction in hospitalizations is likely to kick off the growth rebound through relaxed restrictions and some reductions involuntary consumer social distancing." Source: Zerohedge Forex market While record planned US stimulus helped push equities higher it also created a headwind for the US Dollar which continued its downtrend. All major currencies performed strongly against the greenback this week.
Source: Bloomberg Aussie Dollar AUDUSD strengthened this week driven by US dollar weakness and a better than expected unemployment rate of 6.6% indicating continued recovery of the Australian economy from the COVID economic shock. AUD is trading in a tight range and has managed to hold the important 0.77c support level. Gold Spot gold (XAUUSD) had a strong week on the back of US dollar weakness and stimulus hopes, it bounced strongly from the 1820 -1800 support zone making 2 week highs and being up around 2% for the week at time of writing.
Negotiations in the US on the particulars of the proposed stimulus bill and positive or negative news on regarding COVID are expected to play a part in the next few weeks of future price movements. Source: GO MT4 Cryptocurrencies It was a tough week for Cryptos with flag bearing tokens Bitcoin and Ethereum among others sliding dramatically after recent stellar rallies. Bitcoin dropped 10% alone on Thursday and down almost 20% on the week.
The drop seems to be a long overdue correction and sustained profit taking, it wasn’t helped on Thursday by a report in a trade blog suggesting that there had been what’s known as a double purchase, where the same “coin” is used in two separate transactions. This rumour went viral casting doubt on the security of the Bitcoin blockchain. Industry veterans and people familiar with blockchain technology downplayed the notion, but with so many new investors with a poor understanding of blockchain technology the damage was done.
From a chart technician's point of view, Bitcoin broke the lower barrier of the wedge pattern it has been consolidating in and has headed to the important 30000 support level. Source: GO MT4 Monday, 25 January 2021 Indicative Index Dividends Dividends are in Points ASX200 WS30 US500 US2000 NDX100 CAC40 STOXX50 0 0 0 0.012 0 0 0 ESP35 ITA40 FTSE100 DAX30 HK50 JP225 INDIA50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


Equity markets US markets dropped sharply overnight as inflation fears returned on the back of Treasury yields hitting their highest levels in more than a year. Investors are concerned the Federal Reserve will allow inflation to accelerate, after Wednesday’s policy meeting where they reaffirmed their commitment to easy money policies. As seen previously the hardest hit stocks were the growth small caps and Tech companies on the Russell and NASDAQ, as traders rotated out of these sectors into traditional value stocks tracked by the Dow Jones index.
The Dow did touch all time highs during the session before fading in the afternoon. Dow Jones down 153 (0.46%) NASDAQ down 409 (3.02%) S&P 500 down 58 (1.48%) Russell 2000 down 69 (2.94%) Source: Yahoo Finance The Australian equity market had a choppy week, mirroring its US counterparts as economic enthusiasm battled with fears of rising interest rates. The ASX 200 dropped yesterday with the sell-off continuing today as much better than forecast employment figures saw market expectations of rising interest rates coming sooner than previously expected.
Source: Yahoo Finance World equity indices are mostly flat for the week as markets see sawed between all time highs and steep declines. Evidence of rotation from Growth and momentum stocks into traditional value stocks in the US is evident from Dow's outperformance of the NASDAQ and S&P 500. The ASX 200 also dropped over the week as rising Aussie and US bond yields plus a strong employment report had investors reassessing predictions of when the RBA would start a tightening cycle on rates.
Source: Bloomberg Forex markets FX markets saw a mostly stronger US dollar against most major currencies. Rising bond yields in the US have mostly driven this move higher - higher interest rates make the US dollar a more attractive investment than its counterparts. Traditional safe haven currencies the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen were the only major currencies to outperform the US dollar this week, on a choppy performance in equity markets.
Source: Bloomberg Commodities Gold Spot gold (XAUUSD) was the other safe haven that rallied against the US dollar, being modestly up for the week at the time of writing. Despite a mostly rising US Dollar, gold ground higher on inflation fears spurred by rising rates in bond yields. Source: GO MT4 Oil US crude prices dropped sharply this week as US crude found stiff resistance around the $67 a barrel price level after a recent strong run up.
US Crude plunged more than 9% in yesterday’s session at one point, on concerns new COVID lockdowns in Europe will sap demand, and whether the recent run up is justified with the current progress of world economic recovery. Source: GO MT4 Bitcoin Bitcoin gapped on the Monday open to set a record price above $60k US per token. This after an extremely volatile week which saw the cryptocurrency ranging from 53k – 60k Whether the cryptocurrency has run out of steam at these levels or is preparing for another push higher remains to be seen.
Source: GO MT4 Monday, 22 March 2021 Indicative Index Dividends Dividends are in Points ASX200 WS30 US500 US2000 NDX100 CAC40 STOXX50 0.081 0 0.01 0.024 0 0.098 0 ESP35 ITA40 FTSE100 DAX30 HK50 JP225 INDIA50 0 1.454 0 0 0 0 1.072

Going into the month’s last day of trading, Global markets have performed well despite a sell off this week. Continued hopes that we’re on a path to economic recovery, with COVID vaccines rolling out and the subsequent drop in cases, have supported markets and drawn in investors. Global Equities Major US Indices all saw record highs, with the Dow and S&P500 finishing the month strongly.
The tech heavy NASDAQ also hit all-time highs before selling off as investors rotated into traditional cyclical stocks. Tech stocks such as Amazon, Peloton and DocuSign, which all performed well during COVID lockdown measures, dragged down the index as lockdowns started to ease all over the world. European, UK, Asian and Australian equity markets also performed strongly.
Source: Bloomberg US Markets February saw record highs earlier in the month as COVID vaccinations rolled out out and the Federal Reserve re-iterated its commitment to accommodative conditions until employment and inflation targets are met. Despite these assurances from the Fed there's been a spike in bond yields which has caused concern for investors in the last days of the month, resulting in a significant sell off in US markets overnight. Investors will be watching this coming into March as any continuation of rising yields will be a negative for equities.
Asian Markets Asian markets performed strongly in February with the Nikkei being the strongest performer, breaking above 30000 - a level not seen since the bubble era of the 80s/90s. Source: Bloomberg Hong Kong’s Hang Seng also continued its impressive run. HKEX has seen record volumes on Chinese firms finding a new home there over concerns they'd be booted from US exchanges.
HKEX is now the world's biggest bourse by market value, easily beating rival bourses in London and the US. Australia The ASX 200 has rallied over 3% to date in February. Persistently high commodity prices, an extension in the RBA’s QE bond buying program, and a recovering labour market all supported Aussie equities.
COVID vaccinations starting also gave investors optimism for a continuing economic recovery. Source: tradingeconomic.com FX market February saw a mostly weaker US dollar, with the greenback only outperforming safe haven currencies the Swiss Franc and Japanese yen. With equity markets rallying and record commodity prices, risk and commodity backed currencies outperformed, with the AUDUSD breaking decisively through its 2021 resistance level of 78c US.
Source: Bloomberg British Pound Despite being neither a risk on nor commodity currency the British pound strongly rallied this month on impressive COVID vaccination progress. The pound hit its highest level against the US dollar in nearly three years, amid rising optimism about an end to lockdown in the UK. Australian Dollar The Australian Dollar was the top performing major currency in February.
This despite a dip at the start of the month, when the RBA somewhat surprised the market with an announcement of the extension of the 100 billion bond buying program. Strong signs of recovery in the local labour market, Chinese demand for commodities which are near record highs, and the status of AUD being a 'risk on' currency all helped AUDUSD break through the 78c US level. Analysts at ANZ and CBA expect the Australian dollar to trade as high as 82 US cents by the end of the year.
Source: GO MT4 Bitcoin Bitcoin again proved how volatile it can be with wild swings during the month. The cryptocurrency gyrated wildly from 32k USD at the start of the month, hitting an all-time high above 57K before selling off to be around 47k at the time of writing. Increased optimism in the institutionalising of Bitcoin as big players such as Morgan Stanley, Bridgewater capital, BNY Mellon and Tesla announced Bitcoin investments drove the price higher as momentum traders jumped on board.
The party was somewhat spoilt by comments from Treasury secretary Janet Yellen who labelled Bitcoin “an “inefficient” digital currency and one that is often used for illegal transactions” Government regulation and banning of Bitcoin is the biggest fear of traders in this market. Source: GO MT4 Gold Spot Gold prices dropped around 5% in February to date as the precious metal came under serious selling pressure. This drop is despite US dollar weakness; as the economic recovery progresses globally, gold's appeal is waning.
With inflation reportedly low in developed economies gold's other function as an inflation hedge has also waned. XAUUSD is now testing critical support levels that were set late in 2020. Source: GO MT4 Monday, 22 February 2021 Indicative Index Dividends Dividends are in Points ASX200 WS30 US500 US2000 NDX100 CAC40 STOXX50 10.832 8.224 0.097 0.029 0 0 0 ESP35 ITA40 FTSE100 DAX30 HK50 JP225 INDIA50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.718
