市場新聞與洞察

In the lead-up to the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision this week, the market has seen significant turmoil. Firstly from the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) failure, followed by the news that Credit Suisse’s largest financial backer is unlikely to provide further financial support. This led to Credit Suisse stock plunging by more than 28% and taking with it, the Eurozone bond yields and the Euro.

President Lagarde from the ECB had been signaling to the market, on multiple occasions, since the previous meeting that the ECB will hike rates by 50bps at the March meeting. However, with the current uncertainty especially with the banking failures seen in the US, the market has begun pricing in the possibility that the ECB hikes rates with more caution by deciding on 35bps rather than 50bps at the March meeting. This has led the EURUSD to reverse all recent gains, turning down from the 1.0750 price level to trade along the key support level of 1.0540.

If the ECB releases a decision to hike rates by less than 50bps, this would be a major red flag to the market and also indicate a slowdown in its path of monetary policy tightening, which could see the EURUSD continue with the current downward momentum. If the price breaks below the current support level and the interim price level of 1.0440, the EURUSD could see significant moves downside, supported by the cross-over of the MACD, with the next key support level at 1.0220, which was the previous swing low in November 2022. Alternatively, if the ECB maintains its previous stance and decides to hike rates by 50bps at this meeting, the EURUSD could see brief relief.

However, it would be unlikely that the price would reverse significantly, with the current market uncertainties likely to maintain the downward pressures and the 1.08 resistance level likely to hold firm.

Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (NASDAQ: WBA) announced the latest financial results before the market open in the US on Tuesday. The company beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates. Walgreens reported revenue of $34.862 billion for the quarter ending February 28, 2023 (up by 3.3% year-over-year) vs. $33.528 billion expected.

EPS reported at $1.16 per share (down by 27.2% year-over-year) vs. $1.103 per share estimate. CEO commentary "WBA exited a solid second quarter with acceleration in February, adding to our confidence in driving strong growth in the second half of the year. With the closing of VillageMD's acquisition of Summit Health, WBA is now one of the largest players in primary care, with best-in-class assets across the care continuum.

Both Walgreens and Boots are performing well by delivering compelling value to consumers, playing a critical role as community health destinations, and successfully navigating a challenging environment. We will continue to take bold actions to create sustainable long-term shareholder value," CEO of the company, Rosalind Brewer said in a press release. The stock was up by around 1% in pre-market trading following the latest results.

The stock is down by 11.83% year-to-date at $32.96 a share. Stock performance 1 month: -7.29% 3 months: -14.02% Year-to-date: -11.83% 1 year: -31.12% Walgreens Boots Alliance price targets Barclays: $43 Evercore ISI Group: $35 Loop Capital: $45 Morgan Stanley: $37 Truist Securities: $42 JP Morgan: $40 Credit Suisse: $41 Mizuho: $41 Cowen & Co.: $54 Deutsche Bank: $50 Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. is the 605 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $28.41 billion. You can trade Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (NASDAQ: WBA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.

Sources: Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap

Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT) announced Q4 and full-year financial results before the market open on Wall Street on Tuesday. World’s largest supermarket chain posted solid results for the quarter – beating both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates. The company reported revenue of $164.048 billion (up by 7.3% year-over-year) vs. $159.759 billion expected.

EPS reported at $1.71 per share for the quarter vs. $1.518 EPS estimate. Full-year revenues reached $611.3 billion (up by 6.7% vs. a year prior) and EPS at $6.29 per share. CEO commentary ''We’re excited about our momentum.

The team delivered a strong quarter to finish the year, and as our results in the last two quarters show, they acted quickly and aggressively to address the inventory and cost challenges we faced last year. We built momentum in the third quarter and that continues. We are well-positioned to start this fiscal year,'' Doug McMillon, CEO of Walmart said in a press release following the latest results.

Stock reaction The results did not have a big impact on the share price Tuesday. The stock was up by 0.61% at $147.21 a share. Stock performance 1 month: +3.29% 3 months: -2.53% Year-to-date: +3.91% 1 year: +6.77% Walmart stock price targets Cowen & Co.: $180 Telsey Advisory Group: $165 Morgan Stanley: $161 Gordon Haskett: $155 Barclays: $159 Oppenheimer: $160 Tigress Financial: $176 UBS: $168 Credit Suisse: $170 Bernstein: $159 Walmart is the 18 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $397.31 billion.

You can trade Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Walmart, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap

The overall risk appetite in the market has increased this week following the news that the banking sector’s issues appear to have been resolved. As a result, the Japanese Yen’s status as a safe haven currency may have been hurt in this risk-on market environment. Paired with the renewed recovery in strength in the DXY, this has led to the USDJPY bouncing off the key support and round number price level of 130 to trade steadily higher.

This move higher was sustained as the price broke through the descending trendline, with the USDJPY rising toward the 133-round number resistance level, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and 100-period moving average (MA). While the USDJPY could retrace briefly at this resistance area, look for the USDJPY to break beyond the 133 resistance level and 100 MA to signal a continuation of the upward move, with the next resistance level of 135 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level a possible target level. However, watch out for the developing news from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) following recent comments that the BoJ could tweak the current Yield Curve Control (YCC) if the economic and price conditions justify phasing out stimulus.

Widening of the target level or removal of the YCC could lead to a significant strengthening of the Japanese Yen.

The USDJPY had been trading steadily higher in February, from the 128.50 support level, up toward the 137 round number resistance level. This move was driven by a combination of fundamental reasons (strengthening of the DXY and overall weakness of the Japanese Yen) and technical setup (the golden cross, where the 50-period Moving Average crossed over the 200-period Moving Average). This week, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is set to release its latest decision on its Policy Rate and the accompanying Monetary Policy Statement.

The BoJ is expected to persist with its current stance, maintaining an ultra-lose monetary policy approach as it is the last BoJ policy meeting for Governor Kuroda. However, last week, the yield on the 10-yr Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) consolidated slightly above the 0.5% ceiling adjusted by the BoJ on 20th December 2022. Following the announcement of the increased yield limit, the Japanese Yen strengthened significantly, with the USDJPY trading down from 137.30 to 130.60.

The markets are now watching if the BoJ would take on a similar action again. As the DXY weakened toward the end of the week, the USDJPY was dragged lower, reversing from the 137 resistance level, down to the 135.80 price level to test the 50-period Moving Average. If the price breaks below the Moving Average support level, the USDJPY could trade down to the key support level of 134.50 which coincides with the 38.3% Fibonacci Retracement level.

If the BoJ were to further adjust the yield limits on the 10-yr JGBs, the USDJPY could see a continuation of the downside beyond 134.50, with the next key support level at the 133 price area, formed by the round number and 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level.

Todays FOMC rate decision is certainly in play, with recent turmoil in the banking sector caused in no small part by aggressive Fed hikes over the last 12 months, throws a very big spanner in the works of the Feds plan to combat inflation. Up until a couple of weeks ago a 50bp hike was pretty much fully priced in as the Fed refused to budge on their aggressive rate hiking path, with the statement released at their last meeting indicating that rates would remain “higher for longer” and fully opening the door to more 50bp hikes in subsequent meetings. This all turned very quickly on the collapse of SVB, quickly followed by Signature banks and Credit Suisse with markets racing to you reprice rate expectations, with the terminal rate predictions coming down to significantly followed by a series of rate cuts into year end, before these banking issues no cuts were priced in at all until 2024.

This dramatic change can be seen in the screenshot below of Pre-Bank issues Fed Fund futures pricing, compared to Fed Fund futures pricing after. All that said, this sets todays meeting up to be the most pivotal Fed meeting since the start of their rate hiking cycle 12 months ago and will almost certainly see big volatility on the announcement and some possible great trading opportunities. Let’s go through the 3 likely scenarios as I see them and what reactions in the market we could see.

Dovish- Possible Against the background of a banking crisis that for now seems contained but could certainly re-escalate. The Fed could also see these banking stresses as de facto tightening of financial conditions and elect to pause rates for now to give the banking sector time to stabilise. This scenario would see no hike and probably an acknowledgement that inflation was too high and future rate hikes were “likely appropriate” but with the impact of recent events need to be assessed first.

Likely FX Market Reaction Likely a very fast move down in the USD on the rate decision, followed by volatility as the statement was being digested, the trend of the USD after that will be how dovish the market sees the Feds comments are and clues at further rate moves. After a hawkish ECB who hiked 50bp last week, this would likely see EURUSD pushing to the resistance zone around 1.08, a dovish statement should see this level hold as support and a further push higher in EURUSD in the coming days. Neutral/Hawkish – Base Case With a still hawkish ECB, hiking 50bp last week and tough talking from it’s members since, the Fed may feel emboldened to see their fight against inflation as their number 1 priority, albeit at a slower pace than previously communicated to the market.

For the Fed to pause here would almost be an admission of bad policy and would likely shake the market more than the fairly contained bank failures we have seen up to this point. This scenario, which I think is the most likely will see the Fed hike by 25bp while stating ongoing rate hikes will be “likely appropriate” but also moderating a bit with saying they will be “data dependant” Inflation wise, I expect language like inflation is still “unacceptably high, but risks are moderating”. Likely FX Market Reaction A modest move higher in the USD on the rate decision, markets are pricing in a 85% chance of a 25bp hike, so the up move will be muted.

The statement will decide how the USD moves after that, if they do include the language outlined above (unacceptably high inflation, ongoing hike likely) then a push lower in EURUSD is likely, first to test it’s recent support level at 1.0760, a break of that would likely see it head towards the big figure support at 1.07 and liekly range around that level for the remainder of the session. Very Hawkish – unlikely The final scenario would be seen as very Hawkish and is probably unlikely against the back drop of recent stress in the financial markets. This would see a 50bp hike with a statement that ongoing rate hikes will be “appropriate”.

On inflation “inflation is unnacceptably high, with risks weighted to the upside” FX Market Reaction A 50bp hike would see an instant, and large reaction in the USD as markets would have to reprice their whole prediction of the rate curve going forward, this would certainly see the EURUSD gap straight past the 1.0760 support and really test the 1.07 before a retracement as the statement is deciphered, continued hawkishness in the statement would would likely see a strong break of the 1.07 level as well. Whatever of the 3 possible paths above the FOMC takes, a mixture of them or something completely from left field, the market is sure to see some big volatility, so trade accordingly and be prepared!