Market News & Insights
Market News & Insights
RBA surprises the market hiking 25bp against expectations
Lachlan Meakin
10/10/2023
•
0 min read
Share this post
Copy URL

The Reserve Bank of Australia rate meeting today was supposed to be a done deal of another hold in rates, with futures markets pricing in an over 90% chance of that being the outcome. The RBA however, showing their determination to get an inflation rate still well outside their target band instead delivered a 25bp hike after last months pause, surprising the market and seeing a dramatic reaction in the Aussie dollar (pump) and equity markets. (dump) AUDUSD and ASX200 reaction: Adding to this was what was see as a hawkish statement accompanying the decision, helping to cement the original moves which look now to have some legs, likely seeing the AUDUSD break the 0.67 level this session. *RBA RAISES CASH RATE TARGET 25 BASIS POINTS TO 3.85% *RBA: SOME FURTHER TIGHTENING OF MONETARY POLICY MAY BE REQUIRED *RBA SAYS RATE RISE TO HELP ANCHOR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS

By
Lachlan Meakin
Head of Research, GO Markets Australia.

The information provided is of general nature only and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on any information provided, you should consider whether the information is suitable for you and your personal circumstances and if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice. All opinions, conclusions, forecasts or recommendations are reasonably held at the time of compilation but are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Go Markets Pty Ltd, ABN 85 081 864 039, AFSL 254963 is a CFD issuer, and trading carries significant risks and is not suitable for everyone. You do not own or have any interest in the rights to the underlying assets. You should consider the appropriateness by reviewing our TMD, FSG, PDS and other CFD legal documents to ensure you understand the risks before you invest in CFDs.

Related Articles

Forex
Central Banks
Which FX pairs could move most in May 2026 and why?

As we enter May 2026, the global FX market is attempting a difficult high-wire act. April was defined by “civilisation-ending” ultimatums and a Pakistani-brokered ceasefire that sent Brent crude on a rollercoaster from US$110 down to the mid-US$90s.

For traders, the connect-the-dots moment is this: the peak panic around the Iran conflict has faded, but it has been replaced by a structural regime shift. Markets may be moving from a war premium to a transition premium.

With Kevin Warsh nominated to take the Fed chair in mid-May and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) staring down a generational ceiling near 160.00, the calm in the headlines may be masking a major repricing of global yield differentials.

DXY context

Holding near 100.00 on the “Warsh hawk” floor

Strongest currency

USD, supported by safe-haven demand and yield advantage

Weakest currency

JPY, pressured by the rate gap and energy import exposure

Main central bank theme

The hawkish hold and Fed leadership transition

Main catalyst ahead

RBA (5 May) and US Non-Farm Payrolls (8 May)

Monthly leaderboard — biggest movers

01 USD
Rose sharply on safe-haven demand and higher for longer yield expectations.
Strongest
02 CHF
Advanced strongly as the preferred European refuge from Middle East risk.
Safe Haven
03 AUD
Mixed; caught between domestic energy inflation and a hawkish RBA.
Mixed
04 NZD
Under pressure; yield gap and capital outflows remains the primary narrative.
Down
05 JPY
Fell to 20-month lows; pressured by the widening rate gap and energy import costs.
Weakest

Strongest mover: US dollar (USD)

The US dollar enters May with a new kind of ballast. While the ceasefire reduced the immediate need for a panic hedge, the nomination of Kevin Warsh, widely viewed as an inflation hawk, has provided a structural floor for the greenback.

Key drivers

  • The Warsh effect: Markets may be front-running a shift in Fed independence and a stricter approach to inflation targeting.
  • Energy insulation: As a net exporter, the US may be better cushioned against any fragile ceasefire-related flare-ups in oil than Europe or Japan.
  • Yield floor: The federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% remains a potential magnet for global capital.

What markets are watching next

Traders are watching the 101 level on the DXY. A sustained break above this high-volume area could signal a restart of the primary uptrend and a softer-than-expected US non-farm payrolls report on 8 May may challenge that view.

Weakest mover: Japanese yen (JPY)

If you wanted to design a currency to struggle in 2026, the yen fits the brief. Despite the “TACO” script, short for “Trump always chickens out”, providing some relief to equities, the mathematical pressure on JPY remains significant.

Key drivers

  • The yield chasm: Even if the BOJ hikes to 1.00%, the spread against the US dollar would remain around 275 basis points (bps), which may keep the carry trade attractive.
  • Import vulnerability: Japan’s heavy reliance on Middle East oil means energy costs may continue to weigh on its current account, even with oil near US$93.
  • Intervention fatigue: Finance Minister Katayama has warned of “bold action”, but past interventions in 2022 and 2024 have tended to provide only short-lived relief.

Strategic outlook

USD/JPY is sitting near 159.80. The generational ceiling around 160.40, reportedly not breached in 35 years, remains the key battleground.

Data to watch next

Four events stand out as the clearest catalysts. Each has a direct transmission channel into rate expectations.

Key dates and FX sensitivity

05
May
RBA Policy Decision
AUD pairs, ASX 200 · 02.30 pm AEST

Markets are pricing a 74% chance of a hike to 4.35% as domestic inflation remains persistent.

08
May
US Labour Market (NFP)
USD pairs, Gold · 10:30 pm AEST

A second consecutive miss could create an uncomfortable narrative for the new Fed leadership transition.

12
May
US CPI - April
USD/JPY, EUR/USD · 10:30 pm AEST

The first clear read on whether the April oil spike has leaked into core services and sticky inflation.

20
May
NVIDIA Q1 Earnings
US Tech, AI Infrastructure · Morning AEST

A key pulse check for the AI infrastructure "invoice phase" and broad risk-on sentiment.

Key levels and signals

  • ◆
    USD/JPY 160.00

    A possible line in the sand for Ministry of Finance intervention. Actual or threatened action here has historically produced sharp reversals in the pair.

  • ◆
    AUD/USD 0.7000

    A psychological handle that acted as a heavy pivot during the 2025 trade war; remains a near-term directional reference for positioning.

  • ◆
    Brent crude US$92.13

    Technical resistance where a break lower could confirm the geopolitical floor has weakened, potentially easing pressure on importers.

  • ◆
    US 10-year yield 4.5%

    A break above this level could create significant valuation pressure for growth-linked FX pairs and emerging market assets.

Bottom line

The FX moves heading into May are being shaped by a normalisation trap. Traders may be betting that the worst of the energy shock is over but a hawkish Fed leadership transition could still re-steepen the yield curve.

Moves are likely to remain highly data-dependent and sensitive to overnight gaps from the Middle East, where geopolitical shifts can gap markets before the next session opens.

Asia-Pacific Coverage

Follow FX through the Asia session

Stay close to Asia-Pacific themes, regional data, sentiment and key crosses.

GO Markets
•
April 26, 2026
Forex
Central Banks
2026年4月，哪些外汇货币对的变动幅度最大，为什么？

从4月之前外汇市场的实际情况开始：地缘政治冲击，中东的石油供应受到压力。整个货币市场的直接反应是交易者以前所见过的：资金流向安全，向收益率转移，并远离任何看似可能受到干扰的东西。

避险资金流遇收益率差异

美元同时受益于这两种力量。它是一个避风港，它还具有目前大多数同行无法比拟的收益优势。瑞士法郎吸收了欧洲避险情绪带来的部分溢出。过去几乎自动吸引避险资金的日元却陷入了完全不同的境地，现在兑美元的收益率差距如此之大，以至于避险逻辑被套利逻辑所取代。

本月最艰难的货币是处于中间位置的货币：风险敏感型、与大宗商品挂钩的货币或根本无法竞争的运行政策利率。新西兰元是最明显的例子，而澳元则是一个更混乱的故事。其背后是对2026年降息预期的重新定价，多个国家的中央银行现在正在重新评估这些预期。

DXY context

Regained 100 on geopolitical risk

Strongest currency

USD — safe haven plus yield

Weakest currency

NZD — yield gap plus energy

Main central bank theme

Repricing of 2026 rate cut paths

Main catalyst ahead

Fed and BOJ policy meetings

Monthly leaderboard — biggest movers

01 USD
Rose sharply on safe-haven demand and higher for longer yield expectations.
Strong
02 CHF
Advanced strongly as the preferred European refuge from Middle East risk.
Up
03 JPY
Highly volatile; fell to 20-month lows before intervention commentary.
Volatile
04 AUD
Mixed; caught between domestic energy inflation and a hawkish RBA.
Mixed
05 NZD
Fell sharply; pressured by energy exposure and capital outflows.
Weak

最强推动者：美元（美元）

随着美联储降息和世界其他地区追赶，美元在2025年的大部分时间里逐渐下跌。这个故事在三月下旬停滞不前。伊朗冲突改变了计算方式，美元重新站稳了脚跟，这在某种程度上反映了其在全球市场中的结构性地位。

美国出口石油，当能源价格上涨时，这是贸易条件的改善，而不是贸易条件的冲击。美元的大多数主要货币都处于这个方程式的另一边。再加上3.50％至3.75％的政策利率区间，该区间现在看起来锁定了更长时间，美元的优势既是周期性的，也是结构性的。美元指数（DXY）已重回100水平，但进入4月份的问题是它是保持在这一水平还是进一步推动。

Key drivers

  • Safe-haven demand: The Iran conflict directed flows into US assets across equities, Treasuries, and the dollar itself.
  • Yield advantage: The federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% provides a meaningful return floor relative to most peers, helping to sustain capital inflows.
  • Energy insulation: The US position as an oil exporter creates a structural terms-of-trade benefit when oil prices rise sharply.
  • Rate cut repricing: Market expectations for 2026 Fed cuts have been scaled back significantly, removing a key source of dollar headwinds.

What markets are watching next

The DXY's ability to hold above 100 is the near-term reference point. The 10 April CPI print is the most direct test. A reading above expectations may add further support, while a soft print could give traders reason to take some dollar positions off the table.

The main risks to the upside case are a sudden diplomatic resolution in the Middle East, which could reduce safe-haven demand quickly, or a labour market print on 3 April that is weak enough to revive recession concerns and push rate cut expectations higher again.

最弱的走势：新西兰元（NZD）

如果你想设计一种在当前环境下会陷入困境的货币，那么新西兰元几乎完全符合这个要求。它对风险敏感。它与大宗商品挂钩。它的政策利率为2.25％，低于美联储，现在也低于澳洲联储。新西兰也是能源进口国，因此油价上涨同时打击了贸易平衡和国内通货膨胀前景。

这些都不是什么新鲜事物，但在美元飙升和普遍避险情绪的背景下，所有这些因素同时冲击，以一种不容忽视的方式压制了纽元。曾经使新西兰元具有吸引力的套利交易已经逆转，因为资本一直在流出，而不是流入。

Key drivers

  • Energy import exposure: Rising Brent crude hits New Zealand's trade balance directly and adds upside pressure to domestic inflation.
  • Yield gap: The 2.25% Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy rate sits below the Fed and the RBA, sustaining negative carry against both the USD and AUD.
  • Risk-off positioning: As a commodity and risk currency, the NZD tends to underperform when global sentiment deteriorates.
  • Trade uncertainty: Ongoing tariff related uncertainty continues to weigh on export sector confidence.

Risks and constraints

Any unexpected hawkish commentary from the RBNZ or a sharp decline in oil prices could provide some relief. A broader improvement in global risk appetite would also tend to benefit the NZD, given its sensitivity to sentiment shifts.

But the structural yield disadvantage is not going away quickly, and that may continue to limit the pair's recovery potential.

美元/日元

美元/日元是最清楚地说明当货币的避险地位被套利逻辑所覆盖时会发生什么情况的货币对。日元曾经是交易者在地缘政治压力下寻求保护的第一个停靠港。这种动态已经被抑制，原因很简单：你现在为了持有日元而放弃了太多的收益率。

日本银行（BOJ）的政策利率为0.75％，而美联储的政策利率为3.50％至3.75％，这一差距不鼓励避险资金流动。它鼓励以日元借款并在其他地方部署。因此，尽管美元因地缘政治风险而上涨，但日元也因同样的事件而下跌。这不是它应该如何运作，但当收益率差异如此之大时，数学就是这样计算的。

美元/日元位于159附近，这与日本财政部一直将160列为需要关注的水平相差不远。4月27日和28日的日本央行会议现在是真正的现场直播。

Key events to watch

  • Tokyo CPI, 30 March (AEDT): March inflation data. A strong read may build the case for BOJ action at the April meeting.
  • BOJ meeting, 27 and 28 April (AEST): Markets are treating this as a live event. The quarterly outlook report may include updated inflation forecasts that shift rate hike timing expectations.
  • Intervention watch: Japan's Ministry of Finance has been explicit about the 160 level. Actual intervention, or a credible threat of it, could trigger a sharp and fast reversal.

What could shift the outlook

A hawkish BOJ, actual FX intervention, or a softer US CPI print that reduces dollar support could all push USD/JPY lower from current levels. On the other side, a dovish hold from the BOJ combined with continued dollar strength could see the pair test 160 and potentially beyond, which would likely intensify the intervention conversation in Tokyo.

For traders watching AUD/JPY and other yen crosses, the BOJ meeting on 27 and 28 April carries similar weight. A hawkish shift tends to compress yen crosses broadly, not just USD/JPY.

接下来要关注的数据

未来几周，有四个事件是最明显的潜在外汇催化剂。两者都有通向利率预期的直接传导渠道，利率预期是目前外汇市场的大部分变动的推动力。

Key dates and FX sensitivity

30
Mar
Tokyo CPI
JPY pairs, USD/JPY · AEDT

A strong read may strengthen the case for a more hawkish BOJ at the April meeting.

3
Apr
US labour market (NFP)
USD pairs, AUD/USD, NZD/USD · 10:30 pm AEDT

A weak result could revive recession concerns and alter Fed pricing.

10
Apr
US CPI - March
USD/JPY, EUR/USD, gold · 10:30 pm AEST

The most direct test of whether inflation is easing fast enough to reopen the rate cut conversation.

27-28
Apr
BOJ meeting and quarterly outlook report
JPY crosses, AUD/JPY · AEST

The key policy event for yen crosses. Updated inflation forecasts may shift rate hike timing expectations.

关键关卡和信号

这些是交易者和决策者最密切关注的参考点。每一个都可能是定位转变或官方应对措施的潜在触发因素。

  • ◆
    DXY 100.00

    A psychologically and technically significant support level. Holding above it may sustain the dollar's current run across major pairs. A break below it would likely signal a broader sentiment shift.

  • ◆
    USD/JPY 160.00

    Japan's Ministry of Finance has consistently referenced this level as a threshold requiring attention. Actual intervention, or a credible threat of it, has historically been capable of producing sharp and fast reversals in the pair.

  • ◆
    Brent crude US$120

    A move to this level would likely intensify risk off behaviour across FX markets, putting further pressure on energy importing currencies including the NZD, EUR, and JPY.

  • ◆
    AUD/USD 0.7000

    This level has historically attracted buying interest and may act as a near term directional reference for positioning in the pair.

Bottom line

The FX moves heading into April were shaped by a combination of geopolitical shock, yield divergence, and a repricing of central bank expectations that few had positioned for at the start of the quarter. The dollar's dual role as a high yielding and safe haven currency has put it in an unusually strong position, but that position is not unconditional.

One soft CPI print, one diplomatic breakthrough, or one labour market miss could change the tone quickly. Currency moves may remain highly data dependent and sensitive to overnight news flow from the Middle East, where developments can gap markets before the next session opens.

‍

进入更广阔的外汇世界，并在条件变化时保持灵活性。
开设一个账户 · 登录
GO Markets
•
March 30, 2026
Central Banks
Geopolitical events
Market insights
AI
2026年4月美联储观察：石油、通货膨胀和联邦公开市场委员会解释

这是四月开始时的情况。一场战争正在影响世界上最重要的石油阻塞点之一。布伦特原油交易价格高于100美元。而美联储（Fed）在2025年的大部分时间里都在设计软着陆，现在面临的通货膨胀威胁与其说是由工资、服务业或国内经济驱动的，不如说是由能源驱动的。它正在关注石油冲击。

联邦基金利率为3.50％至3.75％。下一次联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议将于4月28日和29日举行，市场面临的关键问题不是美联储是否会削减，而是美联储能否削减，或者能源冲击是否可能在2026年的大部分时间里关闭了这扇大门。

大量重要数据将于4月发布。3月份的消费者物价指数（CPI）、非农就业人数（NFP）和第一季度国内生产总值（GDP）的预估是最重要的三个。但联邦公开市场委员会4月29日的声明可能为今年余下的时间定下了基调。

Fed Funds Rate

3.50%–3.75%

Next FOMC

28–29 April 2026

Brent crude

Above US$100

Key data events

12 major releases

增长：业务活动和需求

想想今年的美国经济是什么样子：人工智能驱动的资本支出（capex）是增长叙事的重要组成部分，企业投资意向看上去很坚定，《一、大、美法案》已经在其中了。从表面上看，增长故事看起来很扎实。

然后，霍尔木兹海峡的局势改变了计算方式。不是因为美国是净能源进口国，事实并非如此，而且结构隔热很重要。但是，对美国能源生产商有利的东西仍然可以挤压其他地方的利润率并压制全球需求。4月30日的第一季度国内生产总值（GDP）预估现在可以从两个角度来解读：冲击前经济有多强劲，以及它可能对未来几个季度发出什么信号。

Key dates (AEST)

2
Apr
US international trade in goods and services (February)
Bureau of Economic Analysis  ·  10:30 pm AEDT
Medium
30
Apr
Q1 GDP — advance estimate
Bureau of Economic Analysis  ·  10:30 pm AEST
High

What markets look for

  • Resilience in Q1 GDP despite the elevated interest rate environment and early energy cost pressures
  • Trade balance movements linked to shifting global tariff frameworks
  • Business investment intentions following passage of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act"
  • Early signs of capacity constraints emerging in technology-heavy sectors

How this data may move markets

Scenario Treasuries USD Equities
Stronger than expected growth ↑ Yields rise ↑ Firmer Mixed - depends on inflation read
Softer growth/GDP miss ↓ Yields fall ↓ Softer Risk off if stagflation narrative builds

劳工：工资和就业

根据你的阅读方式，二月份的就业报告要么是短暂的，要么是一个警告信号。非农就业人数（NFP）下降了92,000人，失业率小幅上升至4.4％，官方说天气起了作用。这可能是真的，但这也是发生的事情。作为维持高利率的主要论点，劳动力市场突然显得不那么令人信服了。

4月3日的3月就业报告现在确实具有重要意义。回归正的薪资增长可能会稳定紧张情绪，而连续第二次的软打印，尤其是在能源价格上涨的背景下，将开始给美联储带来非常不舒服的说法。它将同时考虑就业增长放缓和通货膨胀威胁。那不是一个舒适的地方。

Key dates (AEST)

3
Apr
March employment situation (NFP and unemployment rate)
Bureau of Labor Statistics  ·  10:30 pm AEDT
High
30
Apr
Q1 employment cost index
Bureau of Labor Statistics  ·  10:30 pm AEST
Medium

What markets look for

  • A return to positive payroll growth, or confirmation that February's softness was the start of a trend
  • Stabilisation or further movement in the unemployment rate from 4.4%
  • Average hourly earnings growth relative to core inflation — the wage-price dynamic the Fed watches closely
  • Weekly initial jobless claims as a real-time signal of whether layoff activity is rising

通货膨胀：消费者价格指数、PPI和个人消费支出

关于通货膨胀目前的走向，这是一个令人不安的真相。在任何石油冲击结束之前，美联储首选的核心个人消费支出（PCE）在1月份已经同比增长了3.1％。美联储并未完全解决其通货膨胀问题，相反，它已经放慢了通货膨胀的速度。那是另一回事。

现在，除了尚未完全解决的通货膨胀问题外，油价还大幅上涨。能源价格可以通过汽油、运输和物流成本相对较快地纳入消费者物价指数（CPI），这些成本最终会出现在几乎所有物品的价格中。4月10日的3月CPI数据可能是本月最重要的单一数据发布，它可能会告诉我们能源冲击是否已经出现在美联储关注的数字中。

Key dates (AEST)

10
Apr
Consumer price index (CPI) — March
Bureau of Labor Statistics  ·  10:30 pm AEST
High
14
Apr
Producer price index (PPI) — March
Bureau of Labor Statistics  ·  10:30 pm AEST
Medium
30
Apr
Personal income and outlays incl. PCE price index — March
Bureau of Economic Analysis  ·  10:30 pm AEST
High

What markets look for

  • Monthly CPI acceleration driven by energy and shelter components — the two stickiest inputs
  • PPI as a forward-looking signal: producer cost pressure tends to feed into consumer prices with a lag
  • PCE trends relative to the Fed's 2% target, particularly the core reading that strips out food and energy
  • Any sign that AI-related pricing power is feeding into corporate margins in ways that sustain elevated core readings

How this data may move markets

Scenario Treasuries USD Gold
Cooling core inflation ↓ Yields fall ↓ Softer ↑ Supportive
Sticky or rising inflation ↑ Yields rise ↑ Firmer ↓ Headwind

政策、贸易和收益

4月也是美国财报季的开始，本季度的业绩具有异常的分量。在回报即将到来的基础上，投资者一直在向人工智能基础设施注入资金。问题是何时。随着地缘政治波动推动人们从以增长为导向的技术转向能源和国防，摩根大通4月14日的财报将既考虑管理层对宏观环境的看法，也要考虑数字本身。

然后是4月28日和29日的联邦公开市场委员会会议。在4月初公布包括NFP、CPI和生产者物价指数（PPI）在内的数据之后，美联储将有足够的信息来更新其措辞。无论是表明降息可能持续到2026年，还是稍微半开着大门，都可能是本季度最重要的沟通。

地缘政治波动已经促使投资者重新评估以增长为主的定位。估计耗资6,500亿美元的人工智能基础设施建设在投资回报率方面也受到更严格的审查。如果财报季在这方面令人失望，如果联邦公开市场委员会表示将长期搁置，那么这种组合可能会考验进入5月的风险偏好。

Monitor this month (AEST)

  • ◆
    14 April - JPMorgan Chase Q1 earnings

    The first major bank to report. Management commentary on credit conditions, consumer spending, and the macro outlook will set the tone for financial sector earnings and broader market sentiment.

  • ◆
    15 April - Bank of America Q1 earnings

    A read on consumer credit conditions and household financial health, particularly relevant given rising energy costs and the 4.4% unemployment rate.

  • ◆
    28-29 April - FOMC meeting and policy statement

    The month's most consequential event. The statement and any updated forward guidance may effectively confirm whether rate cuts remain a possibility for 2026.

  • ◆
    Ongoing - Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic

    A live indicator of energy supply risk. Any escalation or resolution carries immediate implications for oil prices, inflation expectations, and the Fed's options.

  • ◆
    Ongoing - Sovereign AI export restrictions

    Developing policy around technology export curbs may affect capital expenditure plans for US technology firms, with knock-on implications for growth and employment in the sector.

The Bigger Picture

Geopolitical volatility has forced a rotation into energy and defence at the expense of growth oriented technology positions. The estimated US$650 billion AI infrastructure buildout is increasingly being scrutinised for returns on investment. If earnings season disappoints on that front, and if the FOMC signals a prolonged hold, the combination could test risk appetite heading into May.

‍

美国即将发布重大数据？保持专注。
开设一个账户 · 登录
GO Markets
•
March 30, 2026
See all News & Insights

Recent Articles

May 2026 could bring another volatile stretch for FX markets as traders weigh a hawkish Fed transition, yen intervention risk, RBA pricing and shifting oil expectations. USD/JPY, AUD/USD, EUR/USD and CAD-linked pairs are among the key markets to watch.
Forex
Central Banks
Which FX pairs could move most in May 2026 and why?

As we enter May 2026, the global FX market is attempting a difficult high-wire act. April was defined by “civilisation-ending” ultimatums and a Pakistani-brokered ceasefire that sent Brent crude on a rollercoaster from US$110 down to the mid-US$90s.

For traders, the connect-the-dots moment is this: the peak panic around the Iran conflict has faded, but it has been replaced by a structural regime shift. Markets may be moving from a war premium to a transition premium.

With Kevin Warsh nominated to take the Fed chair in mid-May and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) staring down a generational ceiling near 160.00, the calm in the headlines may be masking a major repricing of global yield differentials.

DXY context

Holding near 100.00 on the “Warsh hawk” floor

Strongest currency

USD, supported by safe-haven demand and yield advantage

Weakest currency

JPY, pressured by the rate gap and energy import exposure

Main central bank theme

The hawkish hold and Fed leadership transition

Main catalyst ahead

RBA (5 May) and US Non-Farm Payrolls (8 May)

Monthly leaderboard — biggest movers

01 USD
Rose sharply on safe-haven demand and higher for longer yield expectations.
Strongest
02 CHF
Advanced strongly as the preferred European refuge from Middle East risk.
Safe Haven
03 AUD
Mixed; caught between domestic energy inflation and a hawkish RBA.
Mixed
04 NZD
Under pressure; yield gap and capital outflows remains the primary narrative.
Down
05 JPY
Fell to 20-month lows; pressured by the widening rate gap and energy import costs.
Weakest

Strongest mover: US dollar (USD)

The US dollar enters May with a new kind of ballast. While the ceasefire reduced the immediate need for a panic hedge, the nomination of Kevin Warsh, widely viewed as an inflation hawk, has provided a structural floor for the greenback.

Key drivers

  • The Warsh effect: Markets may be front-running a shift in Fed independence and a stricter approach to inflation targeting.
  • Energy insulation: As a net exporter, the US may be better cushioned against any fragile ceasefire-related flare-ups in oil than Europe or Japan.
  • Yield floor: The federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% remains a potential magnet for global capital.

What markets are watching next

Traders are watching the 101 level on the DXY. A sustained break above this high-volume area could signal a restart of the primary uptrend and a softer-than-expected US non-farm payrolls report on 8 May may challenge that view.

Weakest mover: Japanese yen (JPY)

If you wanted to design a currency to struggle in 2026, the yen fits the brief. Despite the “TACO” script, short for “Trump always chickens out”, providing some relief to equities, the mathematical pressure on JPY remains significant.

Key drivers

  • The yield chasm: Even if the BOJ hikes to 1.00%, the spread against the US dollar would remain around 275 basis points (bps), which may keep the carry trade attractive.
  • Import vulnerability: Japan’s heavy reliance on Middle East oil means energy costs may continue to weigh on its current account, even with oil near US$93.
  • Intervention fatigue: Finance Minister Katayama has warned of “bold action”, but past interventions in 2022 and 2024 have tended to provide only short-lived relief.

Strategic outlook

USD/JPY is sitting near 159.80. The generational ceiling around 160.40, reportedly not breached in 35 years, remains the key battleground.

Data to watch next

Four events stand out as the clearest catalysts. Each has a direct transmission channel into rate expectations.

Key dates and FX sensitivity

05
May
RBA Policy Decision
AUD pairs, ASX 200 · 02.30 pm AEST

Markets are pricing a 74% chance of a hike to 4.35% as domestic inflation remains persistent.

08
May
US Labour Market (NFP)
USD pairs, Gold · 10:30 pm AEST

A second consecutive miss could create an uncomfortable narrative for the new Fed leadership transition.

12
May
US CPI - April
USD/JPY, EUR/USD · 10:30 pm AEST

The first clear read on whether the April oil spike has leaked into core services and sticky inflation.

20
May
NVIDIA Q1 Earnings
US Tech, AI Infrastructure · Morning AEST

A key pulse check for the AI infrastructure "invoice phase" and broad risk-on sentiment.

Key levels and signals

  • ◆
    USD/JPY 160.00

    A possible line in the sand for Ministry of Finance intervention. Actual or threatened action here has historically produced sharp reversals in the pair.

  • ◆
    AUD/USD 0.7000

    A psychological handle that acted as a heavy pivot during the 2025 trade war; remains a near-term directional reference for positioning.

  • ◆
    Brent crude US$92.13

    Technical resistance where a break lower could confirm the geopolitical floor has weakened, potentially easing pressure on importers.

  • ◆
    US 10-year yield 4.5%

    A break above this level could create significant valuation pressure for growth-linked FX pairs and emerging market assets.

Bottom line

The FX moves heading into May are being shaped by a normalisation trap. Traders may be betting that the worst of the energy shock is over but a hawkish Fed leadership transition could still re-steepen the yield curve.

Moves are likely to remain highly data-dependent and sensitive to overnight gaps from the Middle East, where geopolitical shifts can gap markets before the next session opens.

Asia-Pacific Coverage

Follow FX through the Asia session

Stay close to Asia-Pacific themes, regional data, sentiment and key crosses.

GO Markets
•
April 26, 2026
为什么布伦特原油现在上涨，霍尔木兹海峡的混乱对油价意味着什么，石油冲击如何影响通货膨胀和利率，油价上涨时澳元/美元需要注意什么，埃克森美孚对布伦特原油价格上涨的反应，Nextera Energy是否受到能源不安全的影响，为什么航运风险对原油市场很重要
Commodity
Oil, Metals, Soft Commodities
Geopolitical events
布伦特原油和霍尔木兹风险：石油交易商为何对供应风险进行重新定价

石油市场习惯于在停止结算之前就看上去已经定下来了。这就是现在的设置。

随着伊朗周边冲突的加剧，霍尔木兹海峡的交通量急剧下降，越来越多的船只因关闭AIS或自动识别系统而陷入黑暗，这些信号通常显示船只在哪里移动。霍尔木兹不只是另一条航道。它是世界上最重要的能源阻塞点之一，因此，当能见度开始消失时，供应风险就会回到对话的中心。

为什么现在这很重要

这很重要，有两个原因。

头条新闻是一回事。市场影响是另一回事。石油不仅关乎有多少桶，还关系到这些桶能否流动，谁愿意为它们投保，买家准备等待多长时间，以及交易者认为他们需要在多大风险的基础上定价。

目前，有三件事同时发生冲突：航运中断、外交脆弱以及市场已经严重倾向于一个方向。这种组合可以使布伦特原油的走势比基本面本身通常所暗示的要快。

是什么推动了这一举动

1 供应能见度恶化

第一个驱动程序很简单。市场看得更少，这往往会让市场更加紧张。

通过霍尔木兹的过境量急剧下降，而越来越多的交通量涉及不再广播标准跟踪信号的船只。简而言之，正常通过重要走廊的船只越来越少，越来越多的活动也变得越来越难以追踪。这并不自动意味着供应即将崩溃。但这确实意味着不确定性正在上升。

2 伊朗的储存缓冲区可能有限

第二个驱动因素是伊朗的出口和储存限制。

陆上储存容量估计约为4000万桶，市场正在关注有人所说的16天红线。到那时，长期的出口中断可能会开始迫使减产，以避免对储油库造成损害。对于新读者来说，要点很简单。如果石油不能储存足够长的时间，问题可能不再是出口延迟，而是开始成为真正的供应问题。

3 定位可以放大移动

第三个驱动因素是定位，这只是市场简写，说明在下一步行动发生之前交易者已经如何进行设置。

在这种情况下，投机性原油头寸显得严重片面。这很重要，因为当市场向一个方向倾斜得太远时，触发急剧调整并不需要太多时间。新的地缘政治冲击可能迫使交易者迅速采取行动，而一旦开始，价格的上涨幅度可能会超过单纯基础新闻所能证明的合理性。

Market Education

Hormuz crisis: Understanding global oil risk

What happens when the world’s key energy chokepoint stops flowing? Dive deep into our full breakdown of oil shocks, supply deterioration, and the market ripple effects.

为什么市场在乎

石油冲击很少能在能源市场内得到控制。

较高的原油价格可能会开始出现在运费、制造业和家庭能源账单中。这意味着通货膨胀预期可能会再次开始攀升。各国央行已经在努力管理粘性通货膨胀和疲软增长之间的艰难平衡，因此石油价格上涨会使这项工作变得更加艰难。

这不仅仅是一个关于石油生产商获得提振的故事。当能源成本上升时，航空公司、运输公司和其他对燃料敏感的企业可能会迅速承受压力。如果石油价格上涨使通货膨胀保持强于预期，则更广泛的股市可能还必须重新考虑政策前景。

连锁反应远不止石油

还有一个货币角度，它不如最初出现的那么简单。

当原材料价格上涨时，与大宗商品挂钩的货币，例如澳元，通常会获得支撑。但是这种关系不是自动的。如果石油价格因为全球需求改善而攀升，那可能会有所帮助。如果由于地缘政治风险激增而攀升，则市场可能会转向避险模式，即使大宗商品价格上涨，这也可能打压澳元。

这就是让这种举动比乍一看更有趣的原因。同样的石油涨势可以支撑市场的一个部分，同时给另一部分带来压力。

框架中的资产和名称

布伦特原油仍然是广泛供应风险中最明显的解读。如果交易者想要最简洁的头条新闻表达，通常是他们首先看的地方。

  • 埃克森美孚是画面中最明显的名字之一。油价上涨可以支撑已实现的销售价格和短期的盈利势头，尽管这从来都不像石油上涨、囤积那么简单。成本、生产结构和更广泛的情绪仍然很重要。
  • NexTera Energy 又增加了一层。这个故事不仅仅是关于化石燃料的。当能源安全成为一个更大的问题时，国内电力弹性、电网投资和替代发电的理由也将得到加强。
  • 澳元/美元是另一个值得关注的市场。澳大利亚与大宗商品周期密切相关，因此原材料价格走强有时可以支撑该货币。但是，如果市场对恐惧的反应大于对增长的反应，那么通常的顺风可能不会成立。

对于新读者来说，关键是石油走势不会以整齐的、可预测的线条在市场中传播。它们不均匀地向外波动，帮助某些资产，给其他资产施加压力，有时两者兼而有之。

Portfolio Strategy

6 markets to watch as TACO meets oil shock fears

With global trade dynamics shifting rapidly, understanding the "Trump Shock" and its impact on supply chains and currency pairs is vital. Explore how to position your portfolio for upcoming trade volatility.

可能会出什么问题

强烈的叙述与单向交易不同。

停火可以比预期更快地稳定航运。欧佩克+可以通过提高产量来抵消部分紧张局势。来自中国的需求数据可能会令人失望，将焦点转移到消费疲软而不是供应受限上。而且，如果地缘政治溢价消退，石油回落的速度可能比当前情绪所暗示的要快。

对于新读者来说，要点很简单。石油涨势可以是真实的，但不是永久性的。短期内，中断风险可能证明此举是合理的，然后如果这些风险缓解或需求疲软，则迅速逆转。

市场不再孤立地对石油进行定价。这是定价可见性、运输安全性以及供应中断蔓延到通货膨胀、货币和更广泛的风险情绪中的风险。

这就是为什么Hormuz很重要，即使对于从未自己交易过一桶原油的读者来说也是如此。

Your next earnings setup starts here

Stay ahead of major beats, misses, and market surprises. Log in to your terminal, open a new account, or explore our dedicated earnings academy.

Need help? Contact our support team

GO Markets
•
April 23, 2026
AI
US Earnings
Shares
美国财报预览：华尔街希望得到Meta、亚马逊和苹果的答案

在本系列的最后三期中，我们描绘了2026年经济的走向： 银行 它支撑着首都， 公用事业 它提供电子，以及 芯片制造商 制造硅。随着四月的报告季进入最后一幕，注意力转移到了前门。

Meta、亚马逊和苹果正处于人工智能建设满足日常消费者和企业需求的时刻。

为什么投资回报率是现在的焦点

支持人工智能的公司和通过人工智能获利的公司之间正在出现一种硬鸿沟，有时也被称为 “大分散”。Meta 和亚马逊处于大规模资本支出（capex）周期的中心，而 2026 年全行业的支出估计约为 6,500 亿美元至 7,000 亿美元。

这就是为什么投资回报率（ROI）指标是首要考虑的原因。

  1. 是 Meta的 人工智能驱动的广告定位足够强大，足以证明其支出计划的合理性？
  2. 是 亚马逊 Web 服务 (AWS) 的重新加速速度足够快以支持自定义芯片推送？
  3. 能够 苹果 即使在更加困难的中国市场中，也要通过证明iPhone 17周期的真实性来保持其溢价估值？

到2026年，问题不再是谁能建造数据中心。谁能将这些投资转化为可持续的高利润利润。在最近的停火之后，能源市场趋于平静，科技估值有一定的喘息空间。现在市场需要证据。

IMPORTANT: REPORTING SCHEDULES CAN CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. REPORTING DATES AND RELEASE TIMES ARE FROM COMPANY INVESTOR RELATIONS CALENDARS WHERE MARKED CONFIRMED; OTHERWISE THEY ARE GO MARKETS ESTIMATES. CONSENSUS EPS, REVENUE AND ANALYST-RANGE DATA ARE FROM THIRD-PARTY MARKET CONSENSUS SOURCES, AS OF 20 APRIL 2026 (AEST). COMPANY GUIDANCE, BACKLOG AND OPERATING METRICS ARE FROM THE LATEST COMPANY FILINGS OR RESULTS PRESENTATIONS UNLESS STATED OTHERWISE. FIGURES AND SCHEDULES MAY CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE.

$META | Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD

Meta Platforms, Inc.

NASDAQ | Technology/Advertising | 29 Apr 2026
✓ CONFIRMED

Global Release Countdown (AMC)

00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$6.69
Consensus Revenue
US$55.4bn
AUSTRALIA/ASIA 30 Apr | 6:05 am
US/LATAM 29 Apr | 4:05 pm
Market intelligence: $META

Analysis: Meta price drivers and scenarios
Ad click improvement (est.)
+3–5%
From AI-driven targeting
2026 capex estimate
~US$135bn
Market estimate range
Silicon strategy
MTIA 2nm
Broadcom co-development
Strategy note

What is MTIA 2nm? This is Meta's "home-grown" AI chip. The 2nm refers to ultra-advanced, high-efficiency technology. By building their own silicon with Broadcom, Meta aims to slash their massive electricity bills and end their total reliance on buying expensive NVIDIA hardware. If this works, it protects Meta's profit margins even if they keep spending billions on AI.

AVG
LOW US$6.30 AVG US$6.69 HIGH US$7.10

Meta has moved from its "Year of Efficiency" into what CEO Mark Zuckerberg calls the "Era of Personal Superintelligence". By April 2026, AI appears to have sharpened the company’s core advertising engine, with some reports suggesting ad click rates rose by around 3% to 5%. But the bigger strategic issue is Meta’s multi-year Broadcom partnership to co-develop custom 2nm MTIA chips, with the aim of reducing reliance on NVIDIA and lowering operating costs over time. The risk is that Meta could beat on earnings and still disappoint if management points to higher spending and a longer payoff period. The real question is whether efficiency gains are keeping pace with the capital expenditure (capex) bill.

Call focus and key signals

The Avocado AI model
Watch for ad click improvements tied to the "Avocado" AI model deployment, currently estimated to be lifting rates by up to 5%.
Signal: Monetisation efficiency
MTIA rollout status
Updates on the custom 2nm MTIA chip rollout with Broadcom will indicate Meta's long term cost structure flexibility.
Watch: Infrastructure independence
Reality Labs losses
Evidence of Reality Labs loss stabilisation would reduce the persistent drag on the overall earnings story.
Watch: Operating loss trend
Capex vs efficiency
The real question for investors is whether efficiency gains are keeping pace with the significant capex bill.
Signal: Spending productivity
Sentiment analysis: Meta Platforms

Interactive scenario analysis: $META
Select earnings outcome
Productive cycle

Spending cycle becomes productive

EPS above US$7.10, double-digit ad growth, and clear early efficiency gains from MTIA. The market may interpret that as a sign the spending cycle is becoming more productive rather than simply more expensive.
EPS level
Above US$7.10
Ad growth
Double digit
Efficiency
MTIA gains
Reaction
Strong rally
Sources & Data Methodology

Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 20 April 2026 (AEST). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings or results presentations. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.

Expanded Coverage

Beyond the chipmakers

As the "show me the money" year unfolds, discover how AI demand is impacting Tesla, NextEra, and Exxon.

Amazon: the capex bet moves to centre stage

Amazon is no longer just a retail story. It is increasingly a cloud and advertising business, with a thin-margin logistics network attached. In 2026, the narrative is centred on what reports have described as a roughly US$200 billion capex plan, aimed largely at building out AWS’s AI infrastructure.

$AMZN | Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD

Amazon.com, Inc.

NASDAQ | Technology/Retail | 29 Apr 2026
✓ CONFIRMED

Global Release Countdown (AMC)

00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$1.69
Consensus Revenue
~US$177.7bn
AU/ASIA 30 Apr | 6:00 am
US/LATAM 29 Apr | 4:00 pm
Market Intelligence: $AMZN

Analysis: Amazon price drivers and scenarios
AWS growth threshold
20% YoY
Market floor expectation
2026 Capex plan (est.)
~US$200bn
Largely AWS AI infrastructure
Custom silicon
Trainium 3 and 4
In-house AI chip pipeline
AVG
LOW US$1.50 AVG US$1.69 HIGH US$1.90

Amazon is no longer primarily a retail story. In 2026, the narrative centres on approximately US$200 billion in planned capex, directed largely at building out AWS's AI infrastructure. That is an extraordinary commitment, and the market is watching closely to see whether the returns are following. One metric matters most: AWS growth.

Key signals to watch

AWS growth rate
Anything materially below 20% YoY could reinforce the bear case that spending is running well ahead of returns.
Watch: AWS growth vs 20% floor
Trainium supply commitments
Early supply commitments for Trainium 3 and 4 would signal how quickly the transition to in-house chips is progressing.
Watch: Trainium 3 and 4 progress
Retail margins under tariff pressure
Management commentary on whether Section 122 tariff costs are being absorbed or passed on is vital for the non-AWS story.
Watch: Retail operating margin
Advertising segment momentum
Sustained growth here provides a high-margin earnings cushion if retail margins are squeezed by logistics or tariffs.
Watch: Advertising revenue growth
Sentiment Analysis · Amazon.com Inc.

Interactive scenario analysis: $AMZN
Select earnings outcome
Investment Landing

Spending cycle lands well

EPS above US$1.90 and AWS growth above 24% with firmer retail margins. The market interprets this as proof the massive investment cycle is delivering efficient returns.
EPS Level
Above US$1.90
AWS Signal
Above 24%
Retail Margin
Firmer
Reaction
Positive rally
Sources & Data Methodology

Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 20 April 2026 (AEST). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings or results presentations. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.

Apple: quality still needs proof

Apple has looked like the defensive favourite in hardware, helped by record free cash flow (FCF) of US$43.64 billion and the strength of its Services segment. But the latest debate is whether that defensive status can turn back into growth. Third-party shipment data has indicated a roughly 20% rise in China for iPhone 17, challenging the idea that the market is already mature.

$AAPL | Q2 FY2026 REPORTING PERIOD

Apple Inc.

NASDAQ | Consumer Technology | 30 Apr 2026
✓ CONFIRMED

Global Release Countdown (AMC)

00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$1.91
Consensus Revenue
~US$109.0bn
AU/ASIA 01 May | 6:30 am
US/LATAM 30 Apr | 4:30 pm
Market intelligence: $AAPL

Analysis: Apple price drivers and scenarios
Free cash flow (FCF)
US$43.6bn
Record, prior period
Services run-rate target
~US$30bn
Quarterly revenue approach
China iPhone 17 shipments
+~20%
Third-party data estimate
AVG
LOW US$1.70 AVG US$1.91 HIGH US$1.94

Apple is still widely seen as a quality print, but expectations are higher now. Margin resilience alone is no longer enough. The market wants evidence that Apple Intelligence, the company’s on-device AI platform, can extend the upgrade cycle and support more recurring, high-margin Services revenue over time.

Key signals to watch

iPhone 17 demand in China
China remains the most closely watched variable. Third-party data has pointed to growth of around 20%, but earnings will provide the first company-sourced data point.
Watch: China revenue growth
Services revenue trajectory
Services is approaching a US$30 billion quarterly run rate and carries structurally higher margins. Further acceleration reduces reliance on iPhone cycle volatility.
Watch: Services revenue vs US$30bn
Apple Intelligence rollout
On-device AI is a key upgrade catalyst. Management commentary on adoption, features and international timing will shape refresh cycle expectations.
Watch: Apple intelligence milestones
Gross margin
Apple guided to a 48% to 49% range. Holding near the top signals product mix strength. A result below 48% raises questions about cost pressure.
Watch: Gross margin vs 48% to 49%
Sentiment analysis: Apple Inc.

Interactive scenario analysis: $AAPL
Select report outcome
Growth support

Support for growth narrative

EPS above US$1.94, firmer China iPhone 17 data and gross margin above 49%. The market may interpret that as support for the higher-quality growth narrative and validate the thesis that Apple Intelligence is beginning to drive a meaningful upgrade cycle.
EPS level
Above US$1.94
China demand
Firmer
Gross margin
Above 49%
Reaction
Bullish move
Sources & Data Methodology

Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 20 April 2026 (AEST). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings or results presentations. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.

Thematic risks

What could shift the picture

Three risks could change the narrative, regardless of how the numbers print.

1. Spending without visible returns

Meta and Amazon are both running enormous capex programmes, with payoff periods that stretch well beyond a single quarter. If either company delivers an in line or weaker result while also lifting full year spending guidance, the market may start to see the gap between investment and return as a structural issue rather than a temporary one. That would matter for the sector as a whole, not just for one stock.

2. China as a variable, not a constant

Apple's China story has shown some resilience in third party data, but it remains sensitive to trade policy, consumer confidence and local competition. Any signal from management that demand is softening faster than expected, or that local rivals are gaining meaningful share in the mid range and premium segments, could reset the earnings growth outlook more quickly than consensus currently assumes.

3. The K-shaped consumer backdrop

In a market where higher income consumers are holding up while lower income groups remain under pressure, ad spending patterns and device upgrade cycles can diverge sharply from headline averages. If Meta's ad pricing weakens because smaller businesses pull back, or if Apple's upgrade cycle is concentrated within a narrower demographic, results could disappoint even with broadly stable macro conditions.

Note: These thematic risks may influence sector wide risk appetite independently of headline EPS results.
The bottom line

The 2026 reality check

As this earnings season moves towards its close, the story is shifting away from survival and towards operational execution in the intelligence era.

$META

AI ad efficiency is facing its biggest test yet. Can the Broadcom silicon bet start to show up in margins?

$AMZN

AWS re-acceleration remains the critical signal. A US$200 billion capex push needs a growth rate to match.

$AAPL

Quality still needs proof. Apple Intelligence has to show it can extend the upgrade cycle, not just refresh it.

For Meta, Amazon and Apple, the test is whether heavy investment in silicon, models and infrastructure is turning into measurable cash flow and durable margins. In a more uneven economy, the market appears to be rewarding companies that can show real demand and clearer monetisation. The earnings numbers matter, but management commentary on the return on that investment may matter more.

Your next earnings setup starts here

Stay ahead of major beats, misses, and market surprises. Log in to your terminal, open a new account, or explore our dedicated earnings academy.

Need help? Contact our support team

GO Markets
•
April 20, 2026
See all News & Insights