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4月8日宣布的停火以及围绕45天休战的平行讨论并未解决霍尔木兹海峡的混乱问题。目前,他们已经限制了最坏的情况,但油轮运输量仍处于正常水平的一小部分,伊朗对过境费的需求预示着结构性转变,而不是暂时的转变。
最初的地区冲突已成为全球能源冲击,市场面临的问题不再是霍尔木兹是否受到干扰,而是这种混乱对石油的最低定价产生了多大的永久性影响。
关键要点
- 每天约有2000万桶(桶)的石油和石油产品通常通过伊朗和阿曼之间的霍尔木兹海峡,相当于全球石油消费量的约五分之一,约占全球海运石油贸易的30%。
- 这是流量冲击,不是库存问题。石油市场依赖于持续的吞吐量,而不是静态存储。
- 如果中断持续超过几周,布伦特原油可能会从短期飙升转向更广泛的价格冲击,存在滞胀风险。
- 穿越海峡的油轮运输量从每天约135艘下降到中断高峰期的不到15艘船只,减少了约85%,超过150艘船只停泊、改道或延误。
- 4月8日宣布了为期两周的停火,为期45天的休战谈判正在进行之中。伊朗已分别表示要求对使用该海峡的船只收取过境费,如果正式确定,这将是能源成本的永久地缘政治最低标准。
- 市场已经开始从增长和技术敞口转向能源和国防企业,这反映了人们的观点,即石油价格上涨正在成为结构性成本,而不是暂时的风险溢价。
世界上最关键的石油阻塞点
霍尔木兹海峡每天处理大约2000万桶石油和石油产品,相当于全球石油消费量的20%和全球海运石油贸易的30%左右。由于全球石油需求接近1.04亿桶/日,且剩余产能有限,在最近的升级之前,市场已经处于紧密平衡状态。
该海峡也是液化天然气的重要走廊。2024年,平均每天约有2.9亿立方米的液化天然气通过该路线,约占全球液化天然气贸易的20%,亚洲市场是主要目的地。
国际能源署(IEA)将霍尔木兹描述为世界上最重要的石油运输阻塞点,并指出,即使是部分中断也可能引发价格的大幅波动。布伦特原油已跌破每桶100美元,这既反映了物质紧张,也反映了地缘政治风险溢价的上升。

由于流量减慢,油轮处于空转状态
现在,航运和保险数据实时显示压力。据报道,超过85艘大型原油运输船滞留在波斯湾,而由于运营商重新评估安全和保险,有150多艘船舶停泊、改道或延误。据估计,这将使1.2亿至1.5亿桶原油在海上闲置。
这些量仅代表霍尔木兹正常吞吐量的六到七天,或略高于一天的全球石油消费。
最新的航运和保险数据现在证实,有150多艘船只停泊、改道或延误,高于最初报告的85艘船只。闲置原油的1.3天全球消费保障仍然是约束性制约因素:这是流量冲击,不是储存问题,停火尚未转化为产量的实质性恢复。
建立在流量而不是存储基础上的市场
石油市场在持续波动中运作。炼油厂、石化厂和全球供应链经过调整,可以沿着可预测的海道稳定交付。当流经占全球石油消耗量约五分之一和全球海运石油贸易约30%的阻塞点时,该系统可以在几天之内从平衡变为赤字。
剩余产能主要集中在欧佩克内,估计仅为每天300万至500万桶。这远低于霍尔木兹水流受到严重干扰时面临的风险交易量。
通货膨胀风险和宏观溢出效应
石油冲击的通货膨胀影响通常以波浪形式出现。随着汽油、柴油和电力成本的上涨,燃料和能源价格的上涨可能会迅速提振总体通货膨胀。
随着时间的推移,更高的能源成本可能会流向货运、食品、制造业和服务业。如果混乱持续下去,通货膨胀率上升和增长放缓相结合,可能会增加滞胀环境的风险,使中央银行面临艰难的权衡。
不容易抵消,系统几乎没有松弛
当前局势之所以特别严重,是因为全球体系缺乏松弛。
当处理近2,000万桶/日(约占全球石油消耗量的五分之一)的阻塞点受到损害时,将近1.03亿至1.04亿桶的全球供需几乎没有备用缓冲。估计每天300万至500万桶的剩余产能,主要在欧佩克内部,只能覆盖风险产量的一小部分。
替代路线,包括绕过霍尔木兹的管道和改道运输,只能部分抵消流量的损失,而且通常成本更高,交货时间更长。
底线
在霍尔木兹海峡的过境恢复并被视为可靠安全之前,全球石油流动可能继续受损,风险溢价上升。对于投资者、政策制定者和企业决策者来说,核心问题是石油能否每天不间断地转移到需要去的地方。


US manufacturer of building materials Vulcan Materials Company (NYSE: VMC) announced its latest financial results on Friday. Vulcan Materials reported revenue that fell short of analyst estimates. Revenue reached $1.834 billion for Q4 2023 (up by 5.88% year-over-year) vs. $1.837 billion expected.
Earnings per share (EPS) topped expectations at $1.46 vs. $1.398 per share expected. EPS was up by 35.18% year-over-year. Full year revenue was up by 6.38% from 2022 at $7.782 billion.
EPS reached $7 per share, up from $5.11 the year before. Company overview Founded: 1909 Headquarters: Birmingham, Alabama United States Number of employees: 12,000 (2023) Industry: Construction materials Key people: Tom Hill (Chief Executive Officer) Suzanne H. Wood (Chief Financial Officer) Denson N.
Franklin III (General Counsel) CEO commentary "2023 was an exceptional year for Vulcan Materials. We generated over $2 billion in Adjusted EBITDA, a 24 percent increase over the prior year, expanded EBITDA margin by 360 basis points and generated $1.5 billion of operating cash flow that can be deployed to grow our business. Our industry leading aggregates cash gross profit per ton increased each quarter on a year-over-year basis and was $9.46 per ton for the full year, a 21 percent improvement over the prior year.
Six consecutive years of unit profitability improvement during a continuously shifting macro backdrop demonstrates the durability of our uniquely positioned aggregates-led business. We carry momentum into 2024, and our focus is the same - compounding unit margins through all parts of the cycle and creating value for our shareholders through improving returns on capital," Tom Hill, CEO of Vulcan Materials said in a statement to shareholders. Stock reaction The stock was up by over 5% at the end of the trading session on Friday at $255.15 a share – a new all-time closing price.
Stock performance 5 day: +6.31% 1 month: +12.86% 3 months: +20.16% Year-to-date: +12.40% 1 year: +37.44% Vulcan Materials stock price targets Raymond James: $240 Royal Bank of Canada: $236 Morgan Stanley: $208 Stifle Nicolaus: $279 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $245 DA Davidson: $260 Barclays: $250 Citigroup: $260 Stephens: $260 Loop Capital: $260 Truist Financial: $260 Jefferies Financial Group: $265 The Goldman Sachs Group: $212 Vulcan Materials Company is the 555 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $33.90 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Vulcan Materials Company (NYSE: VMC) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
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The most anticipated US earnings announcement is coming up with NVDA due to report fiscal Quarter ending Jan 2024 earnings after the Wednesday US market close. NVDA has seen a meteoric rise, quintupling in 2023 and up more than 40% so far in 2024, being the number one stock riding AI mania, making this earnings report one that all investors will be paying attention to. Options markets are pricing in a +/- 11% move to this earnings report, which is exceptional considering the 1.8T size of the company, with Call/Put pricing showing a bias to the upside, which is not surprising with NVDA beating analyst estimates seven of the last eight earnings reports.
There has also been a number of upward revisions in the last four weeks which can be taken as a bullish sign. Source:Nasdaq.com Saying that, NVDA did have the biggest fall of the year on Tuesday, dropping over 4% as some longs booked profits ahead of earnings, so a beat on these figures is certainly not unanimous. This selling action selling could also be an ominous sign of the reaction after earnings if results don’t meet the lofty expectations of Wall St.
Either way traders will likely be rushing to enter or exit the stock depending on the result, so a big move in either direction is probable. NVDA is scheduled to report earnings after Wednesdays US market close.

US home improvement chain Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) reported Q4 financial results before the opening bell on Wall Street on Tuesday. The company reported revenue of $34.786 billion for the quarter (down by 2.9% year-over-year) vs. $34.643 billion expected. Earnings per share also topped analyst estimates at $2.82 (down by 14.54% year-over-year) vs. $2.768 per share expected.
Full-year 2023 revenue reached $152.7 billion, down by 3% vs. 2022. EPS was down by 9.5% year-over-year at $15.11 per share. Company overview Founded: February 6, 1978 Headquarters: Atlanta, Georgia, United States Number of employees: 471,600 (2023) Industry: Retail Key people: Ted Decker (President & CEO), Craig Menear (Chairman) CEO commentary "After three years of exceptional growth for our business, 2023 was a year of moderation," Ted Decker, CEO of Home Depot said in a letter to investors. "During fiscal 2023, we focused on several initiatives to strengthen the business while also staying true to our strategic investments of creating the best interconnected experience, growing our pro wallet share through our unique ecosystem of capabilities, and building new stores.
We remain excited about the future for home improvement and our ability to grow share in our large and fragmented market, which we estimate to be over $950 billion. I also want to thank our associates for their hard work and dedication to serving our customers and communities," Decker concluded. Stock reaction The stock was flat at the end of the trading session on Tuesday at $363.50 a share.
Stock performance 5 day: -1.34% 1 month: +1.08% 3 months: +16.99% Year-to-date: +4.04% 1 year: +13.40% Home Depot stock price targets Stifel Nicolaus: $366 Telsey Advisory Group: $335 Robert W. Baird: $370 The Goldman Sachs Group: $393 Wells Fargo & Company: $400 TD Cowen: $415 Piper Sandler: $400 Wedbush: $380 Barclays: $372 Truist Financial: $387 Morgan Stanley: $335 Guggenheim: $340 Royal Bank of Canada: $299 HSBC: $365 Home Depot Inc. is the 25 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $358.38 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
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With the US closed for a holiday FX markets on Monday struggled to find much direction though China re-opening in the green after an extended leave did lend some support to the Aussie dollar ahead of todays RBA minutes. The February 6th RBA meeting saw a statement that had a bit of both ways, acknowledging broad progress on the inflation front but also pointing to the concerning level of inflation despite recent progress. This was seen as a hawkish leaning hold, seeing AUDUSD rally modestly on the day, today’s minutes will fill in the gaps as to the discussion between RBA members leading to the official decision.
AUDUSD Technical analysis AUDUSD has bounced in the last week after setting new 2024 lows at 0.6442 on the 13 th of February. The steady advance retaking the 0.65 handle and breaching the February resistance level of 0.6525, which has so far held as support. AUDUSD has hit some technical resistance levels here, firstly the 100 Day SMA, which has so far capped further price increase, and further to the upside is the 200 Day SMA and 50% Fib level at around 0.6580 which could also provide technical resistance to any further Aussie upside.
Technical support to the downside could be found firstly at the 61.8 fib level at 0.6513, failing that the 2024 lows at 0.6450. For Aussie traders, along with the RBA minutes today, the main data point will be Wednesdays Wage Price Index, a gauge the RBA has referenced in regards to their rate decisions and could be a big Aussie mover if outside of expected range.


USD Dollar saw mild strength in Monday’s session, DXY trading either side of the psychological 104.00 level but again being capped to the upside by the 100-day SMA resistance. The was little in the way of a catalyst with no tier one data released, that will change today with US CPI figures released, which will help market participants and the Fed gauge the timing of the first rate cut. USDJPY was mostly flat for the second straight session, volume was low with Japan away for a holiday.
USDJPY hit a low of 148.94 but failed to stay beneath 149.00 for long as a rise in US yields dragged the pair higher and held it above the key 149 level. AUDUSD rallied through the 0.6525 resistance level, this will be a key level to watch for Aussie traders today to see if it can re-establish itself as support. NZD lagged despite hawkish RBNZ commentary where RBNZ Governor Orr said inflation is still too high, NZDUSD finding resistance at the February highs and dropping to a low of 0.6120.
This also saw AUDNZD have its biggest up day of 2024 hitting a high of 1.0650 and retracing all and then some of Fridays steep drop. Attention turns to the New Zealand inflation expectations and RBA's Kohler both on Tuesday.


USD dipped in Wednesday’s session after the CPI inspired surge on Tuesday. The US dollar index (DXY) hitting resistance at the 105 level and dropping to a low of 104.65. Reports of Fed Chair Powell downplaying Tuesday's hotter than expected CPI along with the Fed's Goolsbee stating US inflation is still consistent with the Fed's path back to target weighing somewhat on yields and the USD.
EURUSD rallied modestly, holding the key 1.07 level where it found support on Tuesday. A soft USD and beats in Q4 employment and industrial production data support the pair. Euro watchers have ECB president Lagarde testifying at the EU parliament later in the session to look forward to.
JPY saw small gains against the USD with lower UST yields across the curve benefitting the Japanese currency. Though with USDJPY still well above the “intervention” level of 150 some jawboning from Japanese officials materialised. Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki saying he is closely watching FX market moves with a strong sense of urgency and currency diplomat Kanda noting he is watching FX moves and will take appropriate actions if needed on FX.
GBP was the G10 underperformer with GBPUSD setting one week lows after cooler than expected UK CPI data. The headline Y/Y maintaining a 4.0% pace, beneath the 4.2% forecast. UK GDP is ahead for Sterling traders where a contraction of -0.2% is expected.
