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4月8日宣布的停火以及围绕45天休战的平行讨论并未解决霍尔木兹海峡的混乱问题。目前，他们已经限制了最坏的情况，但油轮运输量仍处于正常水平的一小部分，伊朗对过境费的需求预示着结构性转变，而不是暂时的转变。
最初的地区冲突已成为全球能源冲击，市场面临的问题不再是霍尔木兹是否受到干扰，而是这种混乱对石油的最低定价产生了多大的永久性影响。
关键要点
- 每天约有2000万桶（桶）的石油和石油产品通常通过伊朗和阿曼之间的霍尔木兹海峡，相当于全球石油消费量的约五分之一，约占全球海运石油贸易的30％。
- 这是流量冲击，不是库存问题。石油市场依赖于持续的吞吐量，而不是静态存储。
- 如果中断持续超过几周，布伦特原油可能会从短期飙升转向更广泛的价格冲击，存在滞胀风险。
- 穿越海峡的油轮运输量从每天约135艘下降到中断高峰期的不到15艘船只，减少了约85％，超过150艘船只停泊、改道或延误。
- 4月8日宣布了为期两周的停火，为期45天的休战谈判正在进行之中。伊朗已分别表示要求对使用该海峡的船只收取过境费，如果正式确定，这将是能源成本的永久地缘政治最低标准。
- 市场已经开始从增长和技术敞口转向能源和国防企业，这反映了人们的观点，即石油价格上涨正在成为结构性成本，而不是暂时的风险溢价。
世界上最关键的石油阻塞点
霍尔木兹海峡每天处理大约2000万桶石油和石油产品，相当于全球石油消费量的20％和全球海运石油贸易的30％左右。由于全球石油需求接近1.04亿桶/日，且剩余产能有限，在最近的升级之前，市场已经处于紧密平衡状态。
该海峡也是液化天然气的重要走廊。2024年，平均每天约有2.9亿立方米的液化天然气通过该路线，约占全球液化天然气贸易的20％，亚洲市场是主要目的地。
国际能源署（IEA）将霍尔木兹描述为世界上最重要的石油运输阻塞点，并指出，即使是部分中断也可能引发价格的大幅波动。布伦特原油已跌破每桶100美元，这既反映了物质紧张，也反映了地缘政治风险溢价的上升。
由于流量减慢，油轮处于空转状态
现在，航运和保险数据实时显示压力。据报道，超过85艘大型原油运输船滞留在波斯湾，而由于运营商重新评估安全和保险，有150多艘船舶停泊、改道或延误。据估计，这将使1.2亿至1.5亿桶原油在海上闲置。
这些量仅代表霍尔木兹正常吞吐量的六到七天，或略高于一天的全球石油消费。
最新的航运和保险数据现在证实，有150多艘船只停泊、改道或延误，高于最初报告的85艘船只。闲置原油的1.3天全球消费保障仍然是约束性制约因素：这是流量冲击，不是储存问题，停火尚未转化为产量的实质性恢复。
建立在流量而不是存储基础上的市场
石油市场在持续波动中运作。炼油厂、石化厂和全球供应链经过调整，可以沿着可预测的海道稳定交付。当流经占全球石油消耗量约五分之一和全球海运石油贸易约30％的阻塞点时，该系统可以在几天之内从平衡变为赤字。
剩余产能主要集中在欧佩克内，估计仅为每天300万至500万桶。这远低于霍尔木兹水流受到严重干扰时面临的风险交易量。
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
通货膨胀风险和宏观溢出效应
石油冲击的通货膨胀影响通常以波浪形式出现。随着汽油、柴油和电力成本的上涨，燃料和能源价格的上涨可能会迅速提振总体通货膨胀。
随着时间的推移，更高的能源成本可能会流向货运、食品、制造业和服务业。如果混乱持续下去，通货膨胀率上升和增长放缓相结合，可能会增加滞胀环境的风险，使中央银行面临艰难的权衡。
不容易抵消，系统几乎没有松弛
当前局势之所以特别严重，是因为全球体系缺乏松弛。
当处理近2,000万桶/日（约占全球石油消耗量的五分之一）的阻塞点受到损害时，将近1.03亿至1.04亿桶的全球供需几乎没有备用缓冲。估计每天300万至500万桶的剩余产能，主要在欧佩克内部，只能覆盖风险产量的一小部分。
替代路线，包括绕过霍尔木兹的管道和改道运输，只能部分抵消流量的损失，而且通常成本更高，交货时间更长。
底线
在霍尔木兹海峡的过境恢复并被视为可靠安全之前，全球石油流动可能继续受损，风险溢价上升。对于投资者、政策制定者和企业决策者来说，核心问题是石油能否每天不间断地转移到需要去的地方。
US machine manufacturer Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) announced the latest financial results before the opening bell on Thursday. Deere achieved revenue of $10.486 billion for the three months ending 28/1/24, beating analyst estimate of $10.303 billion. Revenue was down by 8% vs. the same period year prior.
Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $6.23 vs. $5.264 per share estimate. EPS decreased year-over-year by 4.88%. Net income for the quarter reached $1.75 billion.
The company cut net income forecast for fiscal year 2024 from $7.75-$8.25 billion to $7.50-$7.75 billion. Company overview Founded: 1837 Headquarters: Moline, Illinois, United States Number of employees: 82,200 (2022) Industry: Agricultural machinery, heavy equipment Key people: John C. May (Chairman, CEO & President) CEO commentary "Deere's first-quarter performance underscores the effectiveness of our Smart Industrial operating model and the dedication of our workforce, enabling improved performance across economic cycles that surpasses historical benchmarks," John C.
May, CEO of the company commented on the latest results. "Moreover, we remain committed to empowering our customers to improve their productivity and sustainability through ongoing investment in the next generation of solutions, as evidenced by our partnership on satellite communications to expand rural connectivity announced this quarter," May concluded his statement to stockholders. Stock reaction The stock fell by over 5% on Thursday. Shares were trading at around $363.36 a share – the lowest level since 12/12/23.
Stock performance 5 day: -5.49% 1 month: -4.39% 3 months: -3.68% Year-to-date: -8.81% 1 year: -9.51% Deere & Company stock price targets Morgan Stanley: $430 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $385 Canaccord Genuity Group: $375 TD Cowen: $396 Bank of America: $422.50 HSBC: $486 USB Group: $408 Credit Suisse Group: $551 Stifel Nicolaus: $460 Oppenheimer: $458 Deutsche Bank: $407 DA Davidson: $510 Citigroup: $475 BMO Capital Markets: $425 Wells Fargo & Company: $490 Deere & Company is the 147 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $101.73 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Deere & Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) released the latest earnings results for fiscal Q2 of 2024 after market close in the US on Wednesday. The US telecommunications company achieved revenue of $12.8 billion for the quarter vs. $12.706 billion. Revenue was down by 6% vs. the same period the year prior.
Earnings per share (EPS) reached $0.87, above Wall Street estimate of $0.836 per share. EPS was down by 1% year-over-year. Cisco announced a 3% raise on its quarterly dividend of $0.40 per share for all shareholders on record as of 4/4/24.
For fiscal Q3 of 2024, the company expects revenue in a region of $12.1 to $12.3 billion. EPS expected at between $0.84 to $0.86 per share. Company overview Founded: 1984 Headquarters: San Jose, California, United States Number of employees: 84,900 (2023) Industry: Telecommunications Key people: Chuck Robbins (CEO & Chairman) CEO commentary "We delivered a solid second quarter with strong operating leverage and capital returns," Chuck Robbins, CEO of the company said in a press release. "We continue to align our investments to future growth opportunities.
Our innovation sits at the center of an increasingly connected ecosystem and will play a critical role as our customers adopt AI and secure their organizations," Robbins concluded. Stock reaction Shares were up by 1.29% at the end of Wednesday’s session at $50.28 a share. The stock fell by around 4% in the after-hours trading.
Stock performance 5 day: +0.32% 1 month: -0.74% 3 months: -6.29% Year-to-date: -1.17% 1 year: +3.05% Cisco stock price targets UBS Group: $55 Melius Research: $55 DZ Bank: $50 Rosenblatt Securities: $51 Piper Sandler: $50 Oppenheimer: $54 Tigress Financial: $76 Bank of America: $60 Deutsche Bank: $58 Barclays: $53 Citigroup: $55 Morgan Stanley: $56 Jefferies Financial Group: $59.50 Evercore ISI: $63 BNP Paribas: $45 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $62 Cisco Systems Inc. is the 54 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $203 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''.
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Cisco Systems Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
American beverage giant The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) reported the latest financial results before the opening bell on Wall Street on Tuesday. Coca-Cola reported revenue of $10.948 billion (up by 7% year-over-year) for the last three months of 2023 vs. $10.675 billion expected. Earnings per share reached $0.49 (up by 10% year-over-year) vs. $0.489 per share estimate.
The company achieved revenue of $45.8 billion in 2023, up by 6% from 2022. EPS reached at $2.69 per share, up by 8%. Coca-Cola paid a total of $8 billion in dividends in 2023.
Company overview Founded: 1892 Headquarters: Atlanta, Georgia, United States Number of employees: 82,500 (2022) Industry: Beverage Key people: James Quincey (chairman and CEO), Brian Smith (president and COO) CEO commentary "During the year, our people and partners rose to meet new challenges, allowing us to excel globally and deliver in a dynamic world," CEO of the beverage company, James Quincey said in a statement to shareholders. "As we begin a new year, we’re confident that our all-weather strategy, powerful portfolio and harmonized system will continue to create value for our stakeholders in 2024 and for the long term," Quincey looked ahead. Stock reaction Shares were down by 0.87% on Tuesday at $59.18 a share – the lowest since 25/1/24. Stock performance 5 day: -1.55% 1 month: -1.63% 3 months: +3.35% Year-to-date: +0.14% 1 year: -0.97% Coca-Cola stock price targets Citigroup: $68 Barclays: $66 Jefferies Financial Group: $64 Morgan Stanley: $65 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $62 Bank of America: $60 Royal Bank of Canada: $70 Wedbush: $71 HSBC: $74 Evercore ISI: $70 Deutsche Bank: $63 Wells Fargo & Company: $68 Credit Suisse Group: $70 UBS Group: $70 The Goldman Sachs Group: $62 The Coca-Cola Company is the 39 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $254.80 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: The Coca-Cola Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Canadian mining company Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: GOLD) reported Q4 2023 financial results before the US market opened on Wednesday. The world's second-largest gold miner achieved revenue of $3.126 billion for Q4 2023, up from $2.943 billion in Q3 2023 vs. $3.128 billion expected. Earnings per share reported at $0.276, exceeding analyst estimate of $0.205.
The company announced a $0.10 per share dividend for all shareholders as of 29/2/24. Company overview Founded: 1983 Headquarters: Toronto, Ontario, Canada Number of employees: 18,421 Industry: Metals and mining Key people: John L. Thornton (Executive Chairman), Mark Bristow (President and Chief Executive Officer) CEO commentary CEO of Barrick Gold, Mark Bristow, had this to say in a letter to shareholders: ''In true Barrick fashion, we kept our focus, dealt with the challenges, progressed our long-term strategic plans and delivered on some of our key objectives.
Most significantly, we have sustained our industry-leading organic growth outlook and are still projecting a 30% increase in gold equivalent3 production by the end of this decade.'' Stock reaction The stock was down by 0.42% during the day on Wednesday after the latest results were announced, trading at $14.09 a share – lowest since 3/11/22. Stock performance 5 day: -5.73% 1 month: -9.54% 3 months: -9.83% Year-to-date: -22.19% 1 year: -18.03% Barrick Gold stock price targets Raymond James: $24 CIBC: $23 BMP Capital Markets: $27 Citigroup: $18 TD Securities: $22 Scotiabank: $25 UBS Group: $23 Jefferies Financial Group: $15 CSFB: $20 Barclays: $28 The Goldman Sachs Group: $22 Fundamental Research: $19.02 Barrick Gold Corporation is the 743 rd largest company in the world with a market cap of $24.77 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: GOLD) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''. GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Barrick Gold Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
The largest financial services company in the world, Visa Inc. (NYSE: V), released the latest earnings results for Q1 of fiscal 2024 after the market closed in Wall Street on Thursday. The US company reported revenue of $8.634 billion (up by 9% year-over-year) vs. $8.554 billion expected. Earnings per share reported at $2.41 (up by 11% year-over-year) vs. $2.339 per share estimate.
Company overview Founded: 1958 Headquarters: One Market Plaza, San Francisco, California, United States Number of employees: 26,500 (2022) Industry: Payment cards services Key people: Ryan McInerney (CEO), Alfred F. Kelly Jr. (Executive Chairman), Oliver Jenkyn (Group President & Global Markets), Kelly Mahon Tullier (Vice Chair & CPO), Chris Suh (CFO) CEO commentary "Our 2024 fiscal year is off to a solid start. In our first quarter, net revenues grew 9% and GAAP EPS grew 20%, driven by relatively stable growth in overall payments volume and processed transactions, plus strong growth in cross-border volume.
Consumer spending remained resilient. Looking ahead, we continue to see significant opportunities across consumer payments, new flows and value added services," CEO of Visa, Ryan McInerney, said in a press release to investors. Stock reaction Shares of Visa ended Thursday up by 0.35% at $272.61 a share.
The stock dipped in the after-hours by around 3% after the latest financial results were released. Stock performance 5 day: +1.67% 1 month: +4.69% 3 months: +17.87% Year-to-date: +4.71% 1 year: +21.32% Visa stock price targets Citigroup: $306 Mizuho: $265 KeyCorp: $300 UBS Group: $305 Jefferies Financial Group: $295 BMO Capital Markets: $280 Barclays: $278 Raymond James: $287 Wedbush: $270 Oppenheimer: $252 HSBC: $266 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $293 Wells Fargo & Company: $270 Credit Suisse Group: $275 Visa Inc. is the 13th largest company in the world with a market cap of $560.26 billion. You can trade Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''. GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Visa Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE: UBER) announced the latest financial results on Wednesday. The US ride-hailing company beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the last 3 months of 2023. Revenue reached $9.936 billion for the quarter (up from $8.607 billion in Q4 2022) vs. $9.756 billion expected.
EPS was reported at $0.66 per share (up by 127.58% year-over-year) vs. $0.163 per share estimate. Full year revenue grew by 24% from 2022 to $137.865 billion. Company overview Founded: March 2009 Headquarters: San Francisco, California, United States Number of employees: 32,800 (2022) Industry: Transportation Key people: Ronald Sugar (Chairman), Dara Khosrowshahi (CEO) CEO commentary "2023 was an inflection point for Uber, proving that we can continue to generate strong, profitable growth at scale.
Our audiences are larger and more engaged than ever, with our platform powering an average of nearly 26 million daily trips last year," Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO of Uber said in a press release. Stock reaction Shares initially dropped by around 3% at the open on Wednesday. Shares flat towards the end of the trading day, up by 0.20% at $70.61 a share.
Stock performance 5 day: +8.14% 1 month: +13.10% 3 months: +42.60% Year-to-date: +14.64% 1 year: +91.65% Uber stock price targets Needham & Company LLC: $71 KeyCorp: $79 JMP Securities: $75 Bank of America: $73 Truist Financial: $68 Gordon Haskett: $66 Mizuho: $77 The Goldman Sachs Group: $78 BMO Capital Markets: $69 Nomura: $62 Oppenheimer: $75 Tigress Financial: $72 Wells Fargo & Company: $64 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $62 Morgan Stanley: $62 Uber Technologies Inc. is the 89th largest company in the world with a market cap of $145.20 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE: UBER) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Uber Technologies Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap