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4月8日宣布的停火以及围绕45天休战的平行讨论并未解决霍尔木兹海峡的混乱问题。目前，他们已经限制了最坏的情况，但油轮运输量仍处于正常水平的一小部分，伊朗对过境费的需求预示着结构性转变，而不是暂时的转变。
最初的地区冲突已成为全球能源冲击，市场面临的问题不再是霍尔木兹是否受到干扰，而是这种混乱对石油的最低定价产生了多大的永久性影响。
关键要点
- 每天约有2000万桶（桶）的石油和石油产品通常通过伊朗和阿曼之间的霍尔木兹海峡，相当于全球石油消费量的约五分之一，约占全球海运石油贸易的30％。
- 这是流量冲击，不是库存问题。石油市场依赖于持续的吞吐量，而不是静态存储。
- 如果中断持续超过几周，布伦特原油可能会从短期飙升转向更广泛的价格冲击，存在滞胀风险。
- 穿越海峡的油轮运输量从每天约135艘下降到中断高峰期的不到15艘船只，减少了约85％，超过150艘船只停泊、改道或延误。
- 4月8日宣布了为期两周的停火，为期45天的休战谈判正在进行之中。伊朗已分别表示要求对使用该海峡的船只收取过境费，如果正式确定，这将是能源成本的永久地缘政治最低标准。
- 市场已经开始从增长和技术敞口转向能源和国防企业，这反映了人们的观点，即石油价格上涨正在成为结构性成本，而不是暂时的风险溢价。
世界上最关键的石油阻塞点
霍尔木兹海峡每天处理大约2000万桶石油和石油产品，相当于全球石油消费量的20％和全球海运石油贸易的30％左右。由于全球石油需求接近1.04亿桶/日，且剩余产能有限，在最近的升级之前，市场已经处于紧密平衡状态。
该海峡也是液化天然气的重要走廊。2024年，平均每天约有2.9亿立方米的液化天然气通过该路线，约占全球液化天然气贸易的20％，亚洲市场是主要目的地。
国际能源署（IEA）将霍尔木兹描述为世界上最重要的石油运输阻塞点，并指出，即使是部分中断也可能引发价格的大幅波动。布伦特原油已跌破每桶100美元，这既反映了物质紧张，也反映了地缘政治风险溢价的上升。
由于流量减慢，油轮处于空转状态
现在，航运和保险数据实时显示压力。据报道，超过85艘大型原油运输船滞留在波斯湾，而由于运营商重新评估安全和保险，有150多艘船舶停泊、改道或延误。据估计，这将使1.2亿至1.5亿桶原油在海上闲置。
这些量仅代表霍尔木兹正常吞吐量的六到七天，或略高于一天的全球石油消费。
最新的航运和保险数据现在证实，有150多艘船只停泊、改道或延误，高于最初报告的85艘船只。闲置原油的1.3天全球消费保障仍然是约束性制约因素：这是流量冲击，不是储存问题，停火尚未转化为产量的实质性恢复。
建立在流量而不是存储基础上的市场
石油市场在持续波动中运作。炼油厂、石化厂和全球供应链经过调整，可以沿着可预测的海道稳定交付。当流经占全球石油消耗量约五分之一和全球海运石油贸易约30％的阻塞点时，该系统可以在几天之内从平衡变为赤字。
剩余产能主要集中在欧佩克内，估计仅为每天300万至500万桶。这远低于霍尔木兹水流受到严重干扰时面临的风险交易量。
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
通货膨胀风险和宏观溢出效应
石油冲击的通货膨胀影响通常以波浪形式出现。随着汽油、柴油和电力成本的上涨，燃料和能源价格的上涨可能会迅速提振总体通货膨胀。
随着时间的推移，更高的能源成本可能会流向货运、食品、制造业和服务业。如果混乱持续下去，通货膨胀率上升和增长放缓相结合，可能会增加滞胀环境的风险，使中央银行面临艰难的权衡。
不容易抵消，系统几乎没有松弛
当前局势之所以特别严重，是因为全球体系缺乏松弛。
当处理近2,000万桶/日（约占全球石油消耗量的五分之一）的阻塞点受到损害时，将近1.03亿至1.04亿桶的全球供需几乎没有备用缓冲。估计每天300万至500万桶的剩余产能，主要在欧佩克内部，只能覆盖风险产量的一小部分。
替代路线，包括绕过霍尔木兹的管道和改道运输，只能部分抵消流量的损失，而且通常成本更高，交货时间更长。
底线
在霍尔木兹海峡的过境恢复并被视为可靠安全之前，全球石油流动可能继续受损，风险溢价上升。对于投资者、政策制定者和企业决策者来说，核心问题是石油能否每天不间断地转移到需要去的地方。
NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO) has had a terrible start to 2024 with the stock plummeting by over 35% year-to-date. On 23/2/24, JP Morgan Chase & Co. downgraded its price target for NIO from $8.50 to $5 a share, citing "weakness to the company's slow sales in January and investor concern on the company's sales and earnings momentum in 2024." On Friday, the Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer released the latest delivery data for February. The company delivered a total of 8,132 cars last month, down from 12,157 deliveries in February 2022.
NIO has delivered 467,781 vehicles in total as of 29/2/24. The EV maker will announce the latest financial results for Q4 2023 before the US market open on 5/3/24. Company overview Founded: November 2014 Headquarters: Shanghai, China Number of employees: 20,000+ (2023) Industry: Automotive Key people: William Li (CEO), Lihong Qin (President), Wei Feng (CFO) Stock reaction The stock was up by 0.52% at the end of Friday’s session at $5.78 a share.
Stock performance 5 day: +7.69% 1 month: +4.96% 3 months: -18.67% Year-to-date: -35.89% 1 year: -39.24% NIO stock price targets Mizuho: $15 Deutsche Bank: $16 CLSA: $14 Sanford C. Bernstein: $8 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $5 Citigroup: $19.20 UBS Group: $15 Nomura: $7.50 Barclays: $8 Morgan Stanley: $12 NIO Inc. is the 1395 th largest and 4 th largest electric vehicle company in the world with a market cap of $12.09 billion. You can trade NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: NIO Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Last week, Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO) released its latest delivery numbers for February. On Tuesday, it was time for the company to announce Q4 2023 and full-year financial results. Let’s take a closer look at how the company performed.
NIO achieved revenue of $2.409 billion for the last three months of 2023, which fell below Wall Street estimate of $2.558 billion. Revenue was up by 6.5% year-over-year. The company reported loss per share of -$0.396, which was more than -$0.337 loss per share expected.
Full year revenue reached $7.833 billion in 2023, up from 7.143 billion the year prior. Company overview Founded: November 2014 Headquarters: Shanghai, China Number of employees: 20,000+ (2023) Industry: Automotive Key people: William Li (CEO), Lihong Qin (President), Wei Feng (CFO) CEO commentary "In 2023, NIO set a new delivery record of 160,038 vehicles, ranking first in China’s premium BEV market with an average transaction price over RMB 300,000. At NIO Day 2023, we unveiled ET9, our smart electric executive flagship, showcasing a suite of our latest technologies, including our self-developed AD chip, full-domain 900V architecture, advanced intelligent chassis system and various other industry-leading innovations, " CEO of NIO, William Li said in a statement to shareholders. "We will soon start deliveries of 2024 NIO products equipped with the highest computing power among production vehicles and constantly enhance users' driving and digital experience.
Meanwhile, we plan to release Navigate on Pilot Plus (NOP+) for urban roads to all NT2.0 users in the second quarter. Our continuous investments in technologies, battery swapping network and user community will bolster our competitive advantages as we navigate the future competition," Li finished his statement. Stock reaction Shares were up by around 2% on Tuesday, trading at $5.44.
Stock performance 5 day: -5.28% 1 month: -9.20% 3 months: -26.31% Year-to-date: -39.64% 1 year: -38.96% NIO stock price targets Mizuho: $15 Deutsche Bank: $16 CLSA: $14 Sanford C. Bernstein: $8 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $5 Citigroup: $19.20 UBS Group: $15 Nomura: $7.50 Barclays: $8 Morgan Stanley: $12 NIO Inc. is the 1369 th largest and 4 th largest electric vehicle company in the world with a market cap of $12.38 billion. You can trade NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: NIO Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
It hasn’t been the best start to 2024 for JD.com Inc. (NASDAQ: JD) with the stock down by over 14%. On Wednesday, the Chinese e-commerce company announced the latest financial results, which sent the stock higher. Beijing based company achieved revenue of $43.111 billion vs. $42.216 billion expected.
Revenue increased by 3.6% year-over-year. Earnings per share (EPS) also topped analyst estimate of $0.661 at $0.747 per share. EPS was up by 10.18% from the same period the year before.
Full year revenue was up by 3.7% from 2022 at $152.8 billion. Full year EPS reached $3.12, up by 25.04% year-over-year. Company overview Founded: 1998 Headquarters: Beijing, China Number of employees: 450,680 (2022) Industry: E-commerce Key people: Sandy Xu (CEO) CEO commentary "We were pleased to finish 2023 on a strong note, with upticks in both revenues and profitability for the fourth quarter," Sandy Xu, CEO of JD said in a statement to investors. "JD’s proactive actions have begun to produce results as our decisive focus on user experience, price competitiveness and platform ecosystem drives deeper and more frequent user engagement and healthier user growth momentum.
With the two priorities of user experience improvement and market share expansion, we look forward to creating more value for our users, business partners and shareholders in 2024," Xu concluded his statement. Stock reaction Shares were up by over 16% during Wednesday’s session, trading at $25.07 a share – the highest level since 11/1/24. Stock performance 5 day: +8.31% 1 month: +7.18% 3 months: -7.12% Year-to-date: -14.49% 1 year: -47.41% JD.com stock price targets Barclays: $35 Citigroup: $42 Mizuho: $35 Susquehanna: $30 Benchmark: $67 UBS Group: $39 The Goldman Sachs Group: $53 Sandford C.
Bernstein: $31 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $31 Morgan Stanley: $33 Bank of America: $51 HSBC: $70 JD.com Inc. is the 506 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $39.04 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade JD.com Inc. (NASDAQ: JD) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: JD.com Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (NYSE: HPE) released earnings results for Q1 of fiscal 2024 after the US market closed on Thursday. The American information technology company reported revenue of $6.8 billion for the three months ending on 31/1/24 vs. $7.089 billion estimate. Revenue was down by 14% year-over-year.
Earnings per share (EPS) was reported at $0.48 vs. $0.449 per share expected. EPS decreased by 24% vs. the same period the year prior. Company overview Founded: 2015 Headquarters: Spring, Texas, United States Number of employees: 62,000 (2023) Industry: Information technology Key people: Patricia Russo (Chairwoman), Antonio Neri (President and CEO) CEO commentary "HPE exceeded our profitability expectations and drove near-record year-over-year growth in our recurring revenue in the face of market headwinds, demonstrating the relevance of our strategy," CEO of the company, Antonio Neri said in a press release. "Despite a mixed quarter, I remain very confident that our focus on customer-centric innovation and our track record of operational discipline will allow us to capitalize on the significant market opportunities in AI as well as across edge and hybrid cloud and to deliver value to our shareholders," Neri ended his statement to investors.
Stock reaction Shares were up by 2.49% at the end of Thursday’s session before the latest results were announced, trading at $15.23 a share. The stock dipped by around 2% in the after-hours trading. Stock performance 5 day: +0.76% 1 month: -1.14% 3 months: -10.20% Year-to-date: -10.57% 1 year: -2.03% Hewlett Packard stock price targets Sandford C.
Bernstein: $17 Barclays: $15 Morgan Stanley: $16 Raymond James: $20 Bank of America: $19 Wells Fargo & Company: $21 Credit Suisse Group: $20 Citigroup: $18 Deutsche Bank: $15 The Goldman Sachs Group: $15 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company is the 924 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $19.65 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (NYSE: HPE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Gold surged again in Monday’s session despite a rise in US Treasury yields and setting a new closing high. There was little fundamental news to drive the rally though a comparable surge in the Crypto markets has seemingly given the other “alternative” currency a tailwind. This is four up sessions for gold and with momentum behind it is eyeing the all-time intraday high set back in December of 2049 USD an ounce, though XAUUSD is trading at extreme overbought levels on the RSI.
The US Dollar index was modestly lower in a slow news day with no US data released. DXY trading between its 100- and 200-day SMA with a range of 103.72 and 103.96. The "highlight" was remarks from the Fed's Bostic, who pushed back somewhat on rate cut expectations, saying there was no urgency to cut rates given the US economy’s strength and when rate cuts start they would not be back to back, this saw yields rise but failed to lift USD.
The Dollar did rally against the Yen though, with rising US Treasury yields ahead of Tokyo CPI today seemingly the main driver. For Yen watchers, BoJ Governor Ueda is also due to speak later in the APAC session in Tokyo and cause some volatility in Yen crosses.
USD sold off on Monday with DXY failing to hold above 104 after finding some resistance at the 100 DAY SMA and dipping from a high of 104.20 to a low of 103.70 where the 200 Day SMA held as support. The move lower in USD came despite higher UST yields, which would normally support the USD. EURUSD was supported by the weaker USD with EURUSD rising above its 100 Day SMA at 1.0814, the 200 Day SMA at 1.0826 and briefly above the 1.0850 level.
There was little in the way of Euro data although ECB President Lagarde did speak where she stated the ECB is not there yet on inflation and noting wage pressures remain strong, supporting the EUR somewhat. JPY was softer vs the USD keeping USDJPY above the short erm support at the psychological 150 level. Higher UST yields supporting the pair seeing it test resistance at the 2024 high of 150.8.
JPY traders’ attention turning to Japanese inflation data today where the National Core CPI is expected to drop to 1.9% from the previous reading of 2.3%.