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4月8日宣布的停火以及围绕45天休战的平行讨论并未解决霍尔木兹海峡的混乱问题。目前，他们已经限制了最坏的情况，但油轮运输量仍处于正常水平的一小部分，伊朗对过境费的需求预示着结构性转变，而不是暂时的转变。
最初的地区冲突已成为全球能源冲击，市场面临的问题不再是霍尔木兹是否受到干扰，而是这种混乱对石油的最低定价产生了多大的永久性影响。
关键要点
- 每天约有2000万桶（桶）的石油和石油产品通常通过伊朗和阿曼之间的霍尔木兹海峡，相当于全球石油消费量的约五分之一，约占全球海运石油贸易的30％。
- 这是流量冲击，不是库存问题。石油市场依赖于持续的吞吐量，而不是静态存储。
- 如果中断持续超过几周，布伦特原油可能会从短期飙升转向更广泛的价格冲击，存在滞胀风险。
- 穿越海峡的油轮运输量从每天约135艘下降到中断高峰期的不到15艘船只，减少了约85％，超过150艘船只停泊、改道或延误。
- 4月8日宣布了为期两周的停火，为期45天的休战谈判正在进行之中。伊朗已分别表示要求对使用该海峡的船只收取过境费，如果正式确定，这将是能源成本的永久地缘政治最低标准。
- 市场已经开始从增长和技术敞口转向能源和国防企业，这反映了人们的观点，即石油价格上涨正在成为结构性成本，而不是暂时的风险溢价。
世界上最关键的石油阻塞点
霍尔木兹海峡每天处理大约2000万桶石油和石油产品，相当于全球石油消费量的20％和全球海运石油贸易的30％左右。由于全球石油需求接近1.04亿桶/日，且剩余产能有限，在最近的升级之前，市场已经处于紧密平衡状态。
该海峡也是液化天然气的重要走廊。2024年，平均每天约有2.9亿立方米的液化天然气通过该路线，约占全球液化天然气贸易的20％，亚洲市场是主要目的地。
国际能源署（IEA）将霍尔木兹描述为世界上最重要的石油运输阻塞点，并指出，即使是部分中断也可能引发价格的大幅波动。布伦特原油已跌破每桶100美元，这既反映了物质紧张，也反映了地缘政治风险溢价的上升。
由于流量减慢，油轮处于空转状态
现在，航运和保险数据实时显示压力。据报道，超过85艘大型原油运输船滞留在波斯湾，而由于运营商重新评估安全和保险，有150多艘船舶停泊、改道或延误。据估计，这将使1.2亿至1.5亿桶原油在海上闲置。
这些量仅代表霍尔木兹正常吞吐量的六到七天，或略高于一天的全球石油消费。
最新的航运和保险数据现在证实，有150多艘船只停泊、改道或延误，高于最初报告的85艘船只。闲置原油的1.3天全球消费保障仍然是约束性制约因素：这是流量冲击，不是储存问题，停火尚未转化为产量的实质性恢复。
建立在流量而不是存储基础上的市场
石油市场在持续波动中运作。炼油厂、石化厂和全球供应链经过调整，可以沿着可预测的海道稳定交付。当流经占全球石油消耗量约五分之一和全球海运石油贸易约30％的阻塞点时，该系统可以在几天之内从平衡变为赤字。
剩余产能主要集中在欧佩克内，估计仅为每天300万至500万桶。这远低于霍尔木兹水流受到严重干扰时面临的风险交易量。
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
通货膨胀风险和宏观溢出效应
石油冲击的通货膨胀影响通常以波浪形式出现。随着汽油、柴油和电力成本的上涨，燃料和能源价格的上涨可能会迅速提振总体通货膨胀。
随着时间的推移，更高的能源成本可能会流向货运、食品、制造业和服务业。如果混乱持续下去，通货膨胀率上升和增长放缓相结合，可能会增加滞胀环境的风险，使中央银行面临艰难的权衡。
不容易抵消，系统几乎没有松弛
当前局势之所以特别严重，是因为全球体系缺乏松弛。
当处理近2,000万桶/日（约占全球石油消耗量的五分之一）的阻塞点受到损害时，将近1.03亿至1.04亿桶的全球供需几乎没有备用缓冲。估计每天300万至500万桶的剩余产能，主要在欧佩克内部，只能覆盖风险产量的一小部分。
替代路线，包括绕过霍尔木兹的管道和改道运输，只能部分抵消流量的损失，而且通常成本更高，交货时间更长。
底线
在霍尔木兹海峡的过境恢复并被视为可靠安全之前，全球石油流动可能继续受损，风险溢价上升。对于投资者、政策制定者和企业决策者来说，核心问题是石油能否每天不间断地转移到需要去的地方。
USD was notably weaker in Thursday’s session ahead of the pivotal NFP report on Friday. The US Dollar index falling for the fifth straight session and breaking below 103 to touch on the Jan 24 lows before finding some support. Risk-on sentiment, a fall in yields and weak jobless claims data being the main drivers of the Greenback decline.
JPY saw strong gains against the USD on the back of hawkish BoJ Speak from Governor Ueda and Board Member Nakagawa, also helped by a tightening in US10Y-JP10Y yield differential. USDJPY continuing its break below the psychological 150 level to hit a low of 147.59. EUR also outperformed vs. the Greenback with EURUSD breaking through the key 1.09 level and entering APAC at NY session highs at 1.0948.
Thursdays ECB policy meeting saw the central bank maintaining rates, as expected, whilst slashing its inflation forecasts which now sees 2025 headline inflation at the 2% target. This “dovish” tone saw EUR initially being the worst performer, before EURUSD benefitted from the accelerating in USD selling during the US session. Gold continued its steep rally for a seventh straight session, again setting new all-time highs in doing so.
A fall in yields, a weaker USD and a desire for safe havens pushing the precious metal above 2160 USD an ounce.
Risk off returned to the markets in Tuesdays session with US equity markets pulling back sharply led by tech stocks with the NASDAQ being the biggest loser, shedding 1.65%. The big headline for the day in FX was gold touching on all-time highs, rallying for a fifth straight session, buoyed by haven flows and a drop in US treasury yields. XAUUSD RSI reading in extreme overbought territory at over 78, the highest level since the blow off top in March 2022.
JPY was the G10 outperformer with USDJPY pushing briefly below the key 150 level after a hotter the expected Tokyo inflation print. Yen was also helped by more jawboning out of currency diplomat Kanda who said that markets must brace for higher interest rates environment. AUD and NZD saw marginal losses against the greenback, with AUD modestly outperforming the Kiwi.
In the APAC session both currencies were softer amid disappointment out of China which weighed on sentiment before recovering somewhat in the US session. AUDUSD briefly dropped below 0.65 and hit a low of 0.6478 before finding support to head into the APAC session above 0.65. NZDUSD pushing below last week's RBNZ-led low and 200DMA at 0.6076 to make a low at 0.6072 before recovering to trade above the key support at 0.61.
Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO) wasn’t the only company releasing the latest earnings report on Thursday. World’s second largest supermarket chain Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) also announced their results after the closing bell on Wall Street. Costco reported revenue of $57.33 billion vs. $59.111 billion expected.
Revenue rose by 5.7% year-over-year. Earnings per share (EPS) was reported at $3.92, which was above Wall Street estimate of $3.64 per share. EPS increased by 18.78% vs. the same period the year prior.
Company overview Founded: September 15, 1983 Headquarters: Issaquah, Washington, United States Number of employees: 316,000 (2023) Industry: Retail Key people: Hamilton E. James (Chairman), W. Craig Jelinek (President and CEO) Stock reaction Broadcome was up by 1.60% before the earnings call, trading at $785.59 a share.
Shares rose to a new all-time high of $787.08 during the session. The stock was down by around 4% post market after the latest results were announced. Stock performance 5 day: +4.99% 1 month: +7.85% 3 months: +27.83% Year-to-date: +18.32% 1 year: +62.87% Costco stock price targets Oppenheimer: $805 Telsey Advisory Group: $785 Wells Fargo & Company: $675 The Goldman Sachs Group: $749 Loop Capital: $755 Tigress Financial: $745 Northcoast Research: $620 Raymond James: $670 UBS Group: $725 BMO Capital Markets: $700 DA Davidson: $600 Stifel Nicolaus: $675 Citigroup: $630 Evercore ISI: $650 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $605 Costco Wholesale Corporation is the 26 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $346.60 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Costco Wholesale Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO) announced its latest financial results after the US market closed on Thursday. The US tech giant achieved revenue of $11.961 billion in the first quarter of fiscal year 2024 (up by 34% year-over-year) vs. $11.759 billion estimate. Earnings per share was reported at $10.99 (up by 6.38% year-over-year) vs. $10.368 per share expected.
The company announced a quarterly dividend of $5.25 a share. Company overview Founded: 1961 Headquarters: San Jose, California, United States Number of employees: 20,000 (2023) Industry: Semiconductor, computer software Key people: Henry Samueli (Chairman), Hock Tan (President and CEO) CEO commentary Hock Tan, CEO of Broadcom had this to say in a letter to investors: "We are pleased to have two strong drivers of revenue growth for Broadcom in the first quarter and fiscal year 2024. First, our acquisition of VMware is accelerating revenue growth in our infrastructure software segment, as customers deploy VMware Cloud Foundation.
Second, strong demand for our networking products in AI data centers, as well as custom AI accelerators from hyperscalers, are driving growth in our semiconductor segment." "We reiterate our fiscal year 2024 guidance for consolidated revenue of $50 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $30 billion," Tan looked at the year ahead. Stock reaction Shares ended Thursday’s session up by 4.22% before the results were announced, trading at $1,407.01 a share. The stock dipped by around 3% in the after-hours trading.
Stock performance 5 day: +7.19% 1 month: +9.35% 3 months: +51.15% Year-to-date: +24.88% 1 year: +123.92% Broadcom stock price targets Mizuho: $1,550 Rosenblatt Securities: $1,500 Cantor Fitzergald: $1,600 Oppenheimer: $1,500 Susquehanna: $1,550 UBS Group: $1,480 The Goldman Sachs Group: $1,325 Citigroup: $1,100 TD Cowen: $1,000 Truist Financial: $1,015 KeyCorp: $1,200 Evercore ISI: $1,050 Robert W. Baird: $1,000 Deutsche Bank: $950 Wells Fargo & Company: $900 Broadcom Inc. is the 11 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $646.85 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to "Trading" then select"Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Broadcom Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
AutoZone Inc. (NYSE: AZO) announced Q2 fiscal 2024 results before the US opening bell on Tuesday. The largest US retailer of aftermarket automotive parts and accessories achieved revenue of $3.859 billion in the quarter, which topped analyst estimate of $3.846 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) reached $28.89 vs. $26.296 per share expected.
Both revenue and EPS increased by 4.6% and 17.2% year-over-year respectively. AutoZone opened 29 new stores in the United States (19), Mexico (6) and Brazil (4) during the quarter. 3 stores were closed in the United States. The company has 7,191 stores in the Unites States (6,332), Mexico (751) and Brazil (108) as of 10/2/24.
Company overview Founded: 1979 Headquarters: Memphis, Tennessee, United States Number of employees: 119,000 (2023) Industry: Retail Key people: William C. Rhodes III (Chairman, President, & CEO), Jamere Jackson (CFO) CEO commentary "I want to thank our AutoZoners for delivering solid earnings in our second fiscal quarter. Their commitment to delivering superior customer service again drove our very solid quarterly performance.
While a difficult holiday comparison for both Christmas and New Year’s negatively impacted quarterly sales performance, we continue to be encouraged with our sales initiatives, and believe we are well positioned for future growth. Additionally, we are pleased with our international business as we delivered another quarter of double-digit growth. We remain committed to prudently investing capital in our business, and we will be steadfast in our long-term, disciplined approach to increasing operating earnings and cash flows while utilizing our balance sheet effectively," Phil Daniele, CEO of the US company said in a statement to shareholders.
Stock reaction Shares rose to a new all-time high following the release of the latest results. The stock was up by over 5% at $2,926.32 a share. Stock performance 5 day: +8.67% 1 month: +3.21% 3 months: +12.59% Year-to-date: +13.31% 1 year: +17.83% AutoZone stock price targets Wedbush: $2950 Barclays: $2779 Morgan Stanley: $2900 Raymond James: $3100 Stephens: $3070 Truist Financial: $3027 TD Cowen: $2975 Oppenheimer: $2600 Argus: $2920 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $2975 Evercore ISI: $2750 DA Davidson: $2500 UBS Group: $2900 Bank of America: $2465 AutoZone Inc. is the 360 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $50.55 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade AutoZone Inc. (NYSE: AZO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: AutoZone Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) recently briefly overtook Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL) as the fourth largest company in the world after the share price rose to a new all-time high of $746.11 on 14/2/24. Since then, the share price has fallen by over 9%, pushing the company back to sixth place. On Wednesday, investors were awaiting the latest results from NVIDIA, which were released after the US market closed, and they did not disappoint.
The company achieved revenue, which topped Wall Street estimates at $22.1 billion vs. $20.395 billion expected. Revenue was up by whopping 265% from the same period last year. Earnings per share (EPS) was reported at $5.16 vs. $4.593 per share estimate.
EPS grew by 486.36% year-over-year. Full year revenue increased by 126% to $60.9 billion. Company overview Founded: 1993 Headquarters: Santa Clara, California, United States Number of employees: 26,196 (2023) Industry: Computer hardware, computer software, cloud computing, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, GPUs Graphics cards Consumer electronics Video games Key people: Jensen Huang (President and CEO) CEO commentary "Accelerated computing and generative AI have hit the tipping point.
Demand is surging worldwide across companies, industries and nations, " Jensen Huang, CEO of the US company said in a press release to shareholders. " Our Data Center platform is powered by increasingly diverse drivers — demand for data processing, training and inference from large cloud-service providers and GPU-specialized ones, as well as from enterprise software and consumer internet companies. Vertical industries — led by auto, financial services and healthcare — are now at a multibillion-dollar level," Huang concluded. Stock reaction Shares were down by 2.85% at the end of trading on Wednesday as investors were waiting for the latest earnings results.
The stock rose by over 5% in after-hours trading. One to watch at the open on Thursday. Stock performance 5 day: -8.99% 1 month: +9.60% 3 months: +38.05% Year-to-date: +35.80% 1 year: +224.05% NVIDIA stock price targets Rosenblatt: $1,100 Cantor Fitzgerald: $775 Piper Sandler Companies: $850 Loop Capital: $1,200 Wedbush: $800 Oppenheimer: $850 Wells Fargo & Company: $840 Susquehanna: $850 UBS Group: $850 Mizuho: $825 Morgan Stanley: $750 The Goldman Sachs Group: $800 Raymond James: $700 Tigress Financial: $790 KeyCorp: $740 DA Davidson: $410 NVIDIA Corporation is the 6 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $1.660 trillion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: NVIDIA Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap, Macrotrends