市場新聞與洞察

AUDNZD – Daily Despite the Australian Dollar having a strong rally towards the end of last year, it appears the New Zealand Dollar is once again regaining the upper hand against its counterpart. New Zealand is ticking many of the economic boxes of late, and from a fundamental point of view, it's not hard to envisage a return of strength for the Kiwi currency. These boxes include a combination of recent policy updates such as the steering away from negative rates and also how New Zealand has successfully managed the global pandemic thus far.

Using the Ichimoku cloud indicator on the daily timeframe, we see an array of factors contributing to the current downtrend in motion. Firstly, both price action and the longer-term lagging span (purple line) are operating below the cloud, which paints an inherently bearish picture. Next, the cloud's thickness located above the current price suggests much resistance to the upside if challenged.

That's not to say it won't fail, but it could cause problems for those looking to go long. We also see the MACD indicator maneuvering southwards with plenty of space to deepen into further bearish territory. Overall, the longer-term outlook at this stage looks rather bleak for the Australian Dollar.

Even shorter-term charts such as the hourly shown below, many indicators replicate the daily snapshot. Interestingly, the price has used the weekly pivot of 1.0673 as resistance, essentially rebounding from this level with pinpoint accuracy. In terms of potential price targets, longer-term, the pair look set to re-test the previous low of 1.0418, where the AUDNZD began the last rally in December.

Additionally, a DiNapoli calculation triangulating the swing highs/lows of 1.10438, 1.04181, and 1.08432 suggests 1.02175 as another possible target. Should this theory come to fruition, it would bring AUDNZD back towards pre-pandemic levels. Given how well both New Zealand and Australia are dealing with the Covid-19 situation, it seems logical for the price to return to this region.

Sources: Go Markets, Meta Trader 5, TradingView, Bloomberg

GBPUSD - Has Cable run out of steam? Looking at GBPUSD, we can see the month of November has kicked off with some impulsive moves higher off the back of potential Brexit deals concluding behind closed doors. In the short-term, we might be witnessing the tail end of the recent rally as price action is showing signs of exhaustion, particularly as it reaches the previous weekly pivot region of 1.31.

We can clearly see some resistance emerging here. Another element to remember is that the trend remains firmly bearish on the daily timeframe, so hints of selling pressure creeping in is perhaps to be expected. If sellers do regain some control, the chart above suggests a key target for the pair would be the double weekly pivot area of 1.29.

Generally speaking, whenever we see these type of pivots, price tends to gravitate towards them as market participants seek a middle ground. GBPJPY - Looking Shaky Above The 200 Day MA Switching to GBPJPY, we are technically in bullish territory thanks to yesterday's close above the 200 Day Moving Average (Gold Line). Considering how price reacted last time above these levels, it might be temporary unless we see further positive reports released for Sterling in the coming days.

Similar to GBPUSD, I see a potential drop on the horizon for the pair, targeting another weekly pivot. On the hourly chart below, we see evidence of some bearish divergence developing on the RSI (Relative Srength Index), coupled with price teetering around overbought levels. It may well become the fuel that sparks a shift towards the weekly pivot of 145.75.

If you would like to see more pivot point action, take a look at our Chart Of The Day on the daily report by Klavs Valters. For more information on trading Forex, check out our regular free Forex webinars. Sources: TradingView.com

2021 has been a profitable year for stocks in the Dow Jones Index. Since the turn of the year, the Dow has seen what appears to be a roaring rally with no end in sight, fuelled by a return of investor confidence and a stimulus package aiming to revitalise a stagnant U.S economy. In the first quarter of 2021, we've seen an increase of over 3000 points (approx. 10%) in the Dow Jones, setting all-time records daily.

One of the main stocks pushing the price ever higher is Chevron. With the resurgence of international travel and consumer demand plus the price of oil rebounding from historical lows, companies like Chevron and Halliburton have seen a wave of new investment. This in turn has boosted their stock price, contributing to the bullish wave in the Dow Jones Index.

One cannot ignore the rise of tech stocks. During the COVID Pandemic, YTD has seen a strong push for Intel (up 30.03% since 31/12/2020) which has contributed significantly to the rally. All indicators point to a bullish market for some time to come whilst bearing in mind we are still in a COVID volatile environment and everything can change.

The market speaks for itself and the market is well and truly behind the rally. Intel Chart Above Source: Yahoo Finance Chevron Chart Above Source: Yahoo Finance By Hasan Albandar

Almost every country in the world has a stock exchange with some countries having multiple exchanges. There are over 60 major exchanges across the globe with the total market cap of over $85 trillion. But only 18 of those are in the so-called ''$1 trillion club''.

The top 18 stock exchanges have a total value of $77 trillion which makes up around 90% of the total global stock exchange market cap. United States The United States has two of the largest stock exchanges in the world - The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (NASDAQ). NYSE is the largest with a market cap of just over $23 trillion, that’s around $12 trillion more than second largest stock exchange NASDAQ.

Some of the biggest companies listed on NYSE include the tech giants Apple, Google, Microsoft and world’s 4th largest company by market cap - Amazon. Asia The largest stock exchanges in Asia are located in Tokyo (JPX) and Shanghai (SSE), with total market caps of $6.06 and $4.53 trillion respectively. Some of the largest companies on the JPX include automotive manufacturer Toyota, SoftBank, Mitsubishi and NTT DoCoMo.

Europe The largest European based stock exchange is based in Amsterdam (Euronext) with a market cap of around $4.34 trillion, closely followed by the London Stock Exchange (LSE) at $4.32 trillion. Some of the largest companies listed on Euronext include American multinational cigarette and tobacco manufacturer Philip Morris, Procter Gamble and HSBC Holdings. South America Brazilian Stock Exchange (Bovespa) is the largest in South America and 20th largest in the world with a market cap of around $783 billion, followed by the Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV) at $393 billion.

Africa Largest stock exchange in Africa is based in Johannesburg (JSE), South Africa with the market cap of just over $1 trillion. It is worth pointing out that it was the first stock exchange to reach $1 trillion market cap in Africa. Australia At $1.45 trillion market cap the Australia Stock Exchange (ASX) is the largest in Australia with not much competition to the top spot on the continent.

Some of the largest companies include Commonwealth Bank, Westpac Banking Corp, and CSL Limited. The financial sector makes up around 40% of the total market cap of the ASX. Map of the Largest Stock Exchanges by Continent Source: Google Maps Getting Close To A Trillion The closest stock exchange to join the ''$1 trillion club'' is the Spanish Stock Exchange (BME) at $851 billion market cap.

Some of the biggest companies listed include Spain’s two largest banks - Banco Santander and BBVA and global energy company Repsol. Brazilian Stock Exchange in Sao Paolo is second closest the $1 trillion market cap at $783 billion. If it does reach the $1 trillion market cap, it will become the first South American stock exchange to reach the milestone.

Other two exchanges closest to the milestone include the Singapore (SGX) and Moscow (MOEX) stock exchanges at $727 and $621 billion market cap respectively. By Klāvs Valters This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions.

Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk.

The 7.95% downward move on the British Pound (GBP) on the back of the Brexit vote was definitely one of a kind. The black line in the chart below shows the daily closing prices for the cable all the way back to 1975. The red line is the daily net changes (measured from close to close) during the same period.

As you can see, never in the past 41 years have we seen a daily move like the one that occurred on the 24 th of June 2016. Despite the uniqueness and magnitude of such a move, many analysts, led by the famous financial mathematician and author of “Fooled by Randomness” and “Black Swan” (which are both highly recommended for serious traders), Nassim Taleb, believe the Brexit move was within the boundaries of statistical properties, which is another way of saying it was not an outlier. Nassim Taleb’s Twitter account a few days after Brexit: Regardless of how you chose to see the Brexit events, in this article I am going to crunch some numbers to see if such extreme price actions can potentially have any explanatory power that can be used by medium and short term traders.

Analysis of GBP returns from 1975 - 2016 For this analysis, I first needed to define what makes a price change normal and what makes it extreme. To do this, I gathered the daily, weekly and monthly returns for the cable since 1975 to today (excluding the Brexit day) and constructed the table below. This table shows some of the statistical attributes of the cable over the study period.

For example, under the Daily column, you can see that historically 52% of the times the Pound has had a positive return and 48% of the times it has seen price depreciation on a day to day basis. Furthermore, this table shows that the average of positive and negative returns across all time frames is around zero. This is quite normal and holds across many markets (including stock indices) and goes to show how difficult it is to predict the direction of the market.

From here, I want to draw your attention to where it says “1% largest”. These are the returns that have only occurred 1% of the times and have all been equal or greater than the number that appears in front of them. For example, the under the daily column, it says that only 1% of the times, the sterling has recorded a daily gain of 1.56% or more.

Said differently, this line item shows that 99% of the times, the daily Pound return has been less than 1.56%. On the flip side, the “1% smallest” means that only 1% of the times, the GBPUSD has dropped more than 1.69% a day which is the same as saying that 99% of the times, the Pound’s daily return has been greater than -1.69%. From these two lines, I constructed the “Extreme” range which is one of the thresholds used for this analysis.

An extreme day is when a daily return is either greater than 1.56% or less than -1.69%. If a daily return falls between those ranges mentioned in the above, then I call that a normal day. Please note that just because of the way I have defined my normal range, I expect 98% of the times the Pound’s daily return falls in the normal range.

You can extend the same terminology for the weekly and monthly returns. For example, looking at the monthly range, if any one month’s return is between -7.34% to 6.33%, you can call that month a normal month. However, if it moves outside of those limits, then that is going to be an extreme month.

The last line in the table above shows another range which I call the Super Extreme range. These are the observations that have only happened 0.1% of the times. For example, for a daily return to be superextreme, it has to be either greater than 2.92% or less than -2.94%.

Now that we have established the thresholds, let’s turn our attention to the Brexit. The table below shows sterling’s return on the Brexit day, week and month. As you can see from the table above, Brexit was an extreme move in all time frames.

However, with the exception of daily prices it cannot be accounted as a super extreme move. Analysis of GBP’s extreme moves Now let’s turn our attention to the negative extreme moves and see what’s happened each time the cable has come across such extreme moves in the daily, weekly and monthly time frames. The results for the daily observations are reported in the following tables.

As you can see under both extreme and super extreme scenarios, the market has usually bounced back in the first 10 days, and from there onwards the future direction of the market over the next 20 and 40 days has been a 50-50 game. Therefore, it appears that purely based on the historical daily data, we cannot draw any meaningful conclusion from an excessive down day. Daily Performance Next I looked at the weekly data and summarised the required information in the table below.

As you can see, there is a bit of an edge in the first 4 weeks after a large negative event. According to this table, 55% of the times the Pound has resumed its downward trend 4 weeks after an extreme negative event with an average price fall of -3.7%. From there onwards, the model does not have much to say.

Weekly Performance Looking at the monthly data, things start looking much better. According to the table below, in 100% of the times, once the sterling posts a negative extreme month, it continues downwards for the next 4 months where it drops by an average of 12.3%. Monthly Performance While the above finding is great and shows a future direction with a notable profit potential for medium term short sellers, it comes with a catch.

If you look at where it says “Total observations”, you will notice that there have only been five cases in the entire study period where the Pound has posted an extreme negative monthly return. So our sample size is too small. What makes the matter worse is when you realize that all of these five cases are either in relation to the Pound crash in 1992 or GFC in 2008.

Therefore, unless you believe the GBPUSD is fundamentally in the same situation (1992 or 2008), then it would be really hard to draw a meaningful comparison. Extreme Monthly negative returns since 1975 Beware of extreme price actions Based on the information provided in this analysis, unless you believe that the UK is in a similar situation today compared to where it was in 1992 or GFC, drawing conclusions based on outliers or extreme price actions seems to be a risky business. Also in a more generic term, it appears that extrapolating past events in the daily (higher) frequency is less informative compared to when lower frequency (i.e, monthly data) are brought to the picture.

The third point that I want to make is that big one day or one period moves should not be the basis of your trading systems. They may look compelling, but when you do some simple objective tests, they won’t pass. Please note that trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk, including the risk of losing substantially more than your initial investment.

Also, you do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets. You should only trade if you can afford to carry these risks. Our offer is not designed to alter or modify any individual’s risk preference or encourage individuals to trade in a manner inconsistent with their own trading strategies.

Ramin Rouzabadi (CFA, CMT) | Trading Analyst Ramin is a broadly skilled investment analyst with over 13 years of domestic and international market experience in equities and derivatives. With his financial analysis (CFA) and market technician (CMT) background, Ramin is adept at identifying market opportunities and is experienced in developing statistically sound investment strategies. Ramin is a co-founder of exantera.com which is a financial website dedicated to risk analysis and quantitative market updates.

Connect with Ramin: Twitter | LinkedIn | Ramin's posts

Last week's ATR: 95-96.1 From the daily chart below, we can see that the US Dollar Index is currently testing its right shoulder, and I have marked the left and right shoulders by two red rectangles. It will take weeks for the price to tumble around the rectangle area, and there might be a lot of fake movements occur, thus it is still too soon to determine a directional bias. While waiting for the outcome to reveal, we should bear in mind that a candlestick chart under larger time frame (i.e., daily or weekly) is like looking at the larger picture.

By keeping daily or weekly chart as your main chart to look at, it should help you to try and avoid some of those fake breakouts on smaller time frames such as 4 hours chart. Last week, the US dollar index rose for the second consecutive week, and the Fed’s interest rate hike news continued to support this trend. Federal Reserve Powell pointed out on Wednesday: "Interest rates are still loose, but we are gradually moving towards a neutral level, which means neither blocking nor stimulating economic growth.

Interest rates may exceed neutral levels." In his fourth public speech in a week, Powell reiterated his optimistic expectation of the US economy. He also pointed out that the US economy is in a very stable, low inflation period accompanied with extremely low unemployment. This week, the market will focus on the US CPI report for September, which will be announced on Thursday (October 11).

The survey shows that the US CPI annual rate in September is expected to increase by 2.4%, the previous value is 2.7%; the core CPI yearly rate in September is expected to grow by 2.3%, the last value is 2.2%. By Lanson Chen – Analyst Lanson Chen @LansonChen This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions.

Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk.