City of London Feeling the Brexit Effect Not a day goes by without Brexit being mentioned and we can expect more of this to continue for some time, even after Britain leaves the European Union next year. With the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cutting its economic growth forecast for Britain for the coming years, are we also starting to see the impact of it on the City of London – the biggest financial centre in the world? Morgan McKinley has shown that the number of jobs available in December 2017 fell by around 52% month-to-month, a much bigger decline compared to the 30% drop seen over the same periods in 2015 and 2016. “In December, the city is abuzz with holiday parties, not hiring, so a drop is to be expected, but for it to be such a seismic drop is alarming” said Hakan Enver, the operations director for financial services for Morgan McKinley.
Year-on-year we have seen 37% fall in vacancies which is a completely different picture to when we look at figures in 2015 and 2016 when we saw a 16% increase in job openings. A recent survey by account firm Binder Dijker Otte (BDO) has shown that the United Kingdom has dropped out of the ranking for top six countries for potential migrants from the European Union. Paul Eagland, managing partner at BDO said the government must act to secure the UK’s access to talent: “UK businesses are already struggling with a skills shortage.
The impact of the EU referendum and uncertainty around a new trade deal is likely to make this worse.” “It’s absolutely imperative that the Government makes it clear to the world that the UK is still a great place to do business and that we continue to attract the world’s brightest and best to our country”. UK’s former immigration minister, Brandon Lewis, said that the issue of skilled worker visas was up by 38% but that is unlikely to make up the difference. Mr Enver said: “On the one hand, it’s great that the UK is still being considered an attractive destination from countries outside of the EU.” “However, on the other hand, there are signs that European employees are becoming less captivated by the draw of working in this country.” “2017 was the year we were told we’d have an exit strategy and a transition plan.
We have neither. “As new rounds of talks kick off, let’s hope 2018 brings the much-needed clarity and stability everyone’s waiting for.” A challenging time for the financial sector in Britain.
By
GO Markets
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市場對頂尖製程晶圓及先進封裝(Advanced Packaging)的瘋狂胃納,其增長速度早已遠遠超越了全球供應鏈所能溫和承受的極限。這種極端的供需失衡,正強行逼迫各大 AI 龍頭大廠積極評估「第二供貨源(Second-source)」—— 呢點要稍為校準:這並不代表大廠們正在拋棄台積電,而是他們在實戰中迫切需要多一條通往大規模量產的備用防線。
支撐英特爾未來繼續狂飆的牛市邏輯非常直觀:**全球 AI 算力需求依舊極其瘋狂**,台積電的產能死鎖在短期內根本無法解開,這倒逼跨國科技巨頭必須不計代價尋求具備實質技術公信力的第二代工防線。如果英特爾能成功將目前的秘密測試與意向訂單逐步轉化為實質性的商業產出,全球長線資金將繼續為其晶圓代工戰略瘋狂計價。
最後,不容忽視的是更宏觀的 **AI 資本開支大週期**。一旦 Google、微軟、亞馬遜和 Meta 等超大規模雲端商(Hyperscalers)未來在龐大的基礎設施投入上放緩步伐、或是 AI 商業化變現的投資回報率(ROI)不如預期,成個半導體板塊都將迎來泥沙俱下的結構性大回撤,無論英特爾 Foundry 的製程進展得幾咁完美也無法獨善其身。
綜上所述,主導接下來外匯與股票交叉盤生死的黃金變數包括:輝達會否發出實質生產訂單、18A 工藝的最新良率進展、英特爾代工業務的虧損限度、台積電先進封裝擴產速度,以及北美雲端巨頭們的 AI 資本開支是否依舊強悍。