市场资讯及洞察

4月8日宣布的停火以及围绕45天休战的平行讨论并未解决霍尔木兹海峡的混乱问题。目前,他们已经限制了最坏的情况,但油轮运输量仍处于正常水平的一小部分,伊朗对过境费的需求预示着结构性转变,而不是暂时的转变。
最初的地区冲突已成为全球能源冲击,市场面临的问题不再是霍尔木兹是否受到干扰,而是这种混乱对石油的最低定价产生了多大的永久性影响。
关键要点
- 每天约有2000万桶(桶)的石油和石油产品通常通过伊朗和阿曼之间的霍尔木兹海峡,相当于全球石油消费量的约五分之一,约占全球海运石油贸易的30%。
- 这是流量冲击,不是库存问题。石油市场依赖于持续的吞吐量,而不是静态存储。
- 如果中断持续超过几周,布伦特原油可能会从短期飙升转向更广泛的价格冲击,存在滞胀风险。
- 穿越海峡的油轮运输量从每天约135艘下降到中断高峰期的不到15艘船只,减少了约85%,超过150艘船只停泊、改道或延误。
- 4月8日宣布了为期两周的停火,为期45天的休战谈判正在进行之中。伊朗已分别表示要求对使用该海峡的船只收取过境费,如果正式确定,这将是能源成本的永久地缘政治最低标准。
- 市场已经开始从增长和技术敞口转向能源和国防企业,这反映了人们的观点,即石油价格上涨正在成为结构性成本,而不是暂时的风险溢价。
世界上最关键的石油阻塞点
霍尔木兹海峡每天处理大约2000万桶石油和石油产品,相当于全球石油消费量的20%和全球海运石油贸易的30%左右。由于全球石油需求接近1.04亿桶/日,且剩余产能有限,在最近的升级之前,市场已经处于紧密平衡状态。
该海峡也是液化天然气的重要走廊。2024年,平均每天约有2.9亿立方米的液化天然气通过该路线,约占全球液化天然气贸易的20%,亚洲市场是主要目的地。
国际能源署(IEA)将霍尔木兹描述为世界上最重要的石油运输阻塞点,并指出,即使是部分中断也可能引发价格的大幅波动。布伦特原油已跌破每桶100美元,这既反映了物质紧张,也反映了地缘政治风险溢价的上升。

由于流量减慢,油轮处于空转状态
现在,航运和保险数据实时显示压力。据报道,超过85艘大型原油运输船滞留在波斯湾,而由于运营商重新评估安全和保险,有150多艘船舶停泊、改道或延误。据估计,这将使1.2亿至1.5亿桶原油在海上闲置。
这些量仅代表霍尔木兹正常吞吐量的六到七天,或略高于一天的全球石油消费。
最新的航运和保险数据现在证实,有150多艘船只停泊、改道或延误,高于最初报告的85艘船只。闲置原油的1.3天全球消费保障仍然是约束性制约因素:这是流量冲击,不是储存问题,停火尚未转化为产量的实质性恢复。
建立在流量而不是存储基础上的市场
石油市场在持续波动中运作。炼油厂、石化厂和全球供应链经过调整,可以沿着可预测的海道稳定交付。当流经占全球石油消耗量约五分之一和全球海运石油贸易约30%的阻塞点时,该系统可以在几天之内从平衡变为赤字。
剩余产能主要集中在欧佩克内,估计仅为每天300万至500万桶。这远低于霍尔木兹水流受到严重干扰时面临的风险交易量。
通货膨胀风险和宏观溢出效应
石油冲击的通货膨胀影响通常以波浪形式出现。随着汽油、柴油和电力成本的上涨,燃料和能源价格的上涨可能会迅速提振总体通货膨胀。
随着时间的推移,更高的能源成本可能会流向货运、食品、制造业和服务业。如果混乱持续下去,通货膨胀率上升和增长放缓相结合,可能会增加滞胀环境的风险,使中央银行面临艰难的权衡。
不容易抵消,系统几乎没有松弛
当前局势之所以特别严重,是因为全球体系缺乏松弛。
当处理近2,000万桶/日(约占全球石油消耗量的五分之一)的阻塞点受到损害时,将近1.03亿至1.04亿桶的全球供需几乎没有备用缓冲。估计每天300万至500万桶的剩余产能,主要在欧佩克内部,只能覆盖风险产量的一小部分。
替代路线,包括绕过霍尔木兹的管道和改道运输,只能部分抵消流量的损失,而且通常成本更高,交货时间更长。
底线
在霍尔木兹海峡的过境恢复并被视为可靠安全之前,全球石油流动可能继续受损,风险溢价上升。对于投资者、政策制定者和企业决策者来说,核心问题是石油能否每天不间断地转移到需要去的地方。


Moderna Inc. (MRNA) reported it latest financial numbers before the opening bell in the US on Thursday. The pharmaceutical company reported results that beat Wall Street estimates, sending the stock price higher on the day. Total revenue reported at $7.211 billion in the fourth quarter vs. $6.798 billion expected.
Earnings per share at $11.29 per share vs. estimate of $9.96 per share. Stéphane Bancel, CEO of Moderna commented on the last year’s performance following the latest results: "In 2021, we delivered 807 million doses with approximately 25% of those doses going to low- and middle-income countries, and we will continue to scale in 2022 to help end the COVID-19 pandemic. Moderna has experienced exponential growth and we have more than doubled the size of our team over the last year with a global team of 3,000.
We also have announced plans to scale to 21 commercial subsidiaries across the world, including four new locations in Asia and six new locations in Europe. We continue to expand and advance our industry-leading mRNA pipeline with 44 programs in development. We look forward to clinical readouts from our therapeutics development candidates later in 2022 in rare genetic diseases and oncology.
We are entering 2022 with a remarkable team and strategic priorities to continue advancing mRNA vaccines and therapeutics to impact human health." Moderna Inc. (MRNA) chart (Weekly) Share price of Moderna surged by over 10% during Thursday, trading at $147.53 per share. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year – 1 Month: +0.18% 3 Month: -45.54% Year-to-date: -41.38% 1 Year: +0.34% Moderna Inc. is the 274 th largest company in the world and 21 st largest pharmaceutical company with a total market cap of $59.54 billion. You can trade Moderna Inc. (MRNA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Moderna Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, CompaniesMarketCap


Mastercard Incorporated (MA) reported its latest financial results before the opening bell on Wall Street on Thursday. The US financial services company reported revenue of $5.497 billion in Q2, beating analyst estimate of $5.267 billion. Earnings per share reported at $2.56 per share vs. $2.36 per share expected. ''We had strong revenue and earnings growth again this quarter, as overall consumer spending remained robust and cross-border volumes grew 58% versus year ago,'' Michael Miebach, CEO of Mastercard said in a press release following the results. ''Increasing inflationary pressures have yet to significantly impact overall consumer spending but we will continue to monitor this closely.
We have a well-diversified business model and the demonstrated ability to deliver strong operating margins through up and down cycles,'' Miebach concluded. Mastercard Incorporated (MA) chart Shares of MasterCard were trading higher on Thursday after beating Wall Street expectations, up by around 1% at $348.50 per share. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 Month +10.56% 3 Month -7.92% Year-to-date -2.92% 1 Year -10.29% Mastercard Incorporated price targets JP Morgan $425 Wells Fargo $400 Piper Sandler $298 Mizuho $375 Truist Securities $420 Barclays $430 BMO Capital $402 Morgan Stanley $452 Mastercard Incorporated is the 19 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $338.14 billion.
You can trade Mastercard Incorporated (MA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Mastercard Incorporated, TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap


The Kansas City Federal Reserve is set to host the 45 th Annual Symposium at Jackson Hole Lodge in Wyoming’s Grand Teton National Park. Some of the countries and world’s most important central bankers, economists, and academics will be meeting to discuss the biggest issues facing the global economy. The key issue on the agenda is of “Reassessing Constraints on the Economy and Policy.” All eyes will be on Jerome Powell, with the chairman of the Federal Reserve expected to speak on Thursday and provide an update on the proceedings of the conference.
At last year’s event Powell was caught out after stating that inflation was transitory, only to see it become a huge long-lasting issue. Therefore, he may try and correct this perception and portray a much more conservative attitude. There is also a view from some analysts that the Fed came across too dovish in the July meeting which led to the market rally.
At this stage the market has priced in a 75-bps increase at the September meeting, however this may change. With key inflation measures slowing somewhat, the question will be whether the fed continue its aggressive interest rate hikes or eases their policy to avoid a potential recession. The market will be hoping that Powell provides some clues for what the Fed plans to do after rates peak.
They will be hoping for clarity over whether the bank will hold the rates at the high levels for some time or lower them straight away to avoid a recession. Market participants should be weary that although Jackson Hole may provide some important context to the future rates, no official policies will be set. The conference will most likely have a relatively small impact on the market, it still has the potential to provide some volatility for both equities and currency if significant attitude shifts are expressed.
The USD is currently at 5 year highs and with some positive catalysts for the currency, it may continue to rise further if the Fed continues to be aggressive in its rate hikes.


JD.com Inc. (JD) announced its fourth-quarter earnings numbers on Thursday. The Chinese e-commerce company reported revenue of $43.422 billion (up by 23% year-over-year), slightly above Wall Street analysts forecast of $43.186 billion. Earnings per share reported at $0.35 per share vs. $0.28 per share expected. ''We are pleased to finish the year with a set of strong results on both the top and bottom lines as we continued to execute and deliver on our strategic priorities,'' said Sandy Xu, Chief Financial Officer of JD.com. ''During the quarter, we further optimized our operational efficiency through technology and innovation, increasing our competitiveness as well as our ability to support our business partners.
In 2022, we will continue to execute our business strategies and focus on sustainable high-quality growth across all of our business lines,'' Xu added. JD.com Inc. (JD) Share price of JD dropped following the latest financial results on Thursday, after the weakest revenue growth in six quarters. The stock was down by around 16% at $52.13 pe share.
Here is how the stock has performed in the past year – 1 Month: -31.40% 3 Month: -34.13% Year-to-date: -25.20% 1 Year: -41.77% JD.com Inc. is the 163 rd largest company in the world with total market cap of $85.95 billion. You can trade JD.com Inc. (JD) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk.
Sources: JD.com, TradingView, MetaTrader 5, CompaniesMarketCap


The recent price action of the Bitcoin suggests that the leading cryptocurrency may be ready for another sell off. Since last November when the currency peaked it has seen a sharp decline with retracements along the way. With inflation and recessionary pressures prevalent short-term volatility remains high as the market determines how to price the asset.
The Jackson Hole symposium is set to begin on Thursday in the USA and may effect the price in the short term if bullish or bearish sentiment comes from the event. The Chart The long-term outlook for Bitcoin is bearish. With constant sell downs and both the 50 Day and 200 day moving average both firmly pushing towards the downside.
Furthermore, the price has not been able to sustain any significant rally and has broken through its major support at $30,000 USD. Recent Price Action The concern for BTC is that it has sold out of the channel that it had been consolidating in and has therefore rejected the upward move. Similarly, the price has followed this action, twice before with both resulting in sell offs.
These patterns appear as traps for bulls because, buyers begin to feel FOMO and then enter long only to be ‘fake out’ as sellers soak up the buying volume and then continue to push the price back down. The RSI also supports more selling as it currently sits at 38 whilst the prior sell offs reached below 20. The RSI also looks to have made a triple top as shown in the chart further indicating that sellers may be ready to drive the price down further.
The concern for buyers is that this current sell off may not be finished. The 5-hour pattern looks to be forming a bear flag/pennant. If the price can break below it may fall to the next support at $17,000/18,000 USD.
This pattern is to be expected and is just reflective of sellers taking a breath before they continue to push the price lower. The price has also fallen back below the 50-period moving average indicting short term bearish sentiment. If the short-term target of $ 17,000/18,000 USD cannot hold the next target is the $13,500 USD level.


Iron ore prices have continued to rally to a six-month high this week, due in part to reports of potential easing of China’s strict COVID-19 policy and their signs of improved steel demand. The Singapore Exchange has the iron ore futures price reaching $165 USD a tonne on Tuesday, this is the highest level since July 2021. The price increase could have been attributed to a report that concluded that Beijing was considering potentially moving away from a zero-tolerance approach to COVID-19.
If this occurs, it could potentially put an end to the stop-start nature of China’s economic activities which has been happening since the start of COVID-19 pandemic. Another report indicated that experimental opening measures could arrive in a few select cities across China as early as June, which will coincide with the beginning of their Summer. A potential sign that China’s stimulus is contributing to rebound in growth can be evident earlier this month with the release of China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).
The PMI had increased to 50.2, which was greater than the economists’ consensus of 49.8. Some experts and economists believe that the PMI’s figures released next month of March will likely provide a better indication of the true state of China’s economy, given the effects of the Lunar New Year period in the first two months of the year. Iron ore supplies could also heavily affect its global price.
There are concerns about the supply disruptions caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, given their iron ore sector accounts for 100 million tonnes and 81 million tonnes a year, respectively. Heavy rain in the south-east of Brazil earlier this year, linked to the La Nina weather pattern, has forced producers to cease operations. Brazil is the second largest iron ore producer behind Australia, producing almost 400 million tonnes compared to Australia’s 900 million tonnes.
The increase in price to iron ore and energy has driven the AUD/USD to reach a new four month high of 74.41 US cents. Commonwealth Bank (CBA) believes that the currency is currently on track to end the first quarter near 74 US cents. They have updated the fair value estimate of the Australian dollar following the release of the RBA’s commodity price index for February.
CBA’s fair value for the AUD/USD ranges between 78-90 US cents, centred on 84 US cents. All in all, the AUD/USD has a healthy positive correlation with the price of iron ore due Australia being the largest producer. Investors can research the supply and demand of iron ore to achieve a good potential indication of the strength of the AUD/USD.
If you would like to take this opportunity to trade on the AUD/USD and require a trading account, you can open a trading account with GO Markets. Source: GO Markets MT5, Tradingview, Tradingeconmics, Statista, WSJ, Science.org, AFR
