- 随着长期紧张局势威胁全球能源流动，WTI 可能反弹，推动原油价格潜在回升。
- 警告显示，敌对行动可能持续至 2029 年 1 月，加深市场不确定性。
- 近期袭击目标包括波斯湾的油轮和军舰，进一步加剧地区风险。
周五亚市，西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）结束四连涨，交投于每桶 99.00 美元附近。然而，随着美国与伊朗之间不断升级的冲突引发了对全球能源供应长期中断的担忧，原油价格可能反弹。据报导，美国高级官员警告特朗普总统，这场战争可能会持续到其任期剩余时间，即 2029 年 1 月结束。
与此同时，据报导，伊朗领导人决心尽管经济成本不断上升仍继续作战，并将这场冲突视为生存威胁。他们还声称，德黑兰已经设法重建导弹能力，如果华盛顿升级自身打击，可能会加大对美国和海湾资产的袭击。
过去两周，战斗愈演愈烈，美国针对伊朗油轮，而伊朗则向波斯湾的美国军舰和油轮，以及邻国境内的美国资产发射导弹。
在伊朗冲突中，油价被视为必要的牺牲
BNY 的策略师指出，特朗普总统继续通过将其直接与防扩散目标挂钩，来为伊朗冲突带来的经济后果辩护。他们指出，他“将当前的经济成本，包括更高的燃料价格，描述为阻止伊朗获得核武器所必需的代价”，同时重申他认为“战争结束后油价将会下跌”。
在能源价格维持高位之际，债券市场坚守阵地
BNY 的策略师观察到，固定收益投资者正试图忽略最新的能源冲击，并指出“债券市场正努力保持韧性，尽管布伦特原油触及每桶 101.50 美元，荷兰 TTF 远期天然气价格仍稳稳高于每兆瓦时 80 欧元。”他们认为，尽管油气基准价格重新承压，但核心债券市场仍在努力保持镇定，因为冲突引发的能源成本飙升正加剧通胀担忧。
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