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澳元在中国RatingDog服务业PMI数据公布后维持涨幅
- 尽管中国 RatingDog 服务业 PMI 在 10 月份小幅降至 50.8，澳元仍守住阵地。
- 澳大利亚国内服务业和综合 PMI 跌破 50.0，表明私营部门出现收缩。
- 美国大选风险和伊朗和平谈判停滞，尽管澳储行加息，仍构成利空风险。
周三亚洲时段，澳元/美元在连续两日下跌后反弹，交投于 0.6970 附近。由于澳元（AUD）在来自中国这一澳大利亚主要贸易伙伴的经济数据公布后保持强势，该货币对维持近期涨幅。中国 RatingDog 服务业采购经理人指数（PMI）从 9 月份的 51.6 降至 10 月份的 50.8，反映出服务业扩张略有放缓。
澳大利亚的经济指标显示服务业和整体商业活动有所放缓。标普全球澳大利亚服务业 PMI 从 9 月份的 51.9 降至 10 月份的 48.5，创七个月低点，并自 5 月以来首次跌破 50.0 的荣枯分界线，不过仍高于市场预期的 47.8。同样，标普全球综合 PMI 从 9 月份的 51.3 降至 48.2，虽好于最初预期的 47.7，但表明制造业和服务业均重新陷入收缩。
尽管当前表现坚韧，澳元/美元后续仍可能面临阻力。围绕即将到来的美国中期选举的政治不确定性以及与伊朗停滞的和平谈判，继续压制投资者情绪，并盖过了澳大利亚央行（RBA）最新加息的影响。
市场参与者正密切关注首批出口民调，以判断民主党是否会拿下美国众议院和参议院，以及美国总统唐纳德-特朗普将如何回应最终选举结果。
美元走势分化，G10 交易受各自货币主题驱动
加拿大丰业银行的策略师指出，“G10 货币继续呈现分化走势，市场参与者更关注各自货币的个别发展，而非更广泛的主题”，这凸显出当前市场背景下，投资者越来越关注货币特定驱动因素，而不是宏观层面的整体叙事。
经济指标
评级狗服务业采购经理人指数（PMI）
评级狗服务业采购经理人指数（PMI）由财新智库和标准普尔全球每月发布，是衡量中国服务业商业活动的领先指标。该数据来源于对私营企业和国有企业高级管理人员的调查。调查反馈反映了本月与上月相比的变化（如有），并可以预测国内生产总值（GDP）、工业生产、就业和通胀等官方数据系列的变化趋势。该指数的范围在0到100之间，50.0的水平表示与上月没有变化。高于50的读数表明服务经济总体上在扩张，这对人民币（CNY）是一个看涨信号。与此同时，低于50的读数则表明服务提供商的活动总体上在下降，这被视为对人民币的看跌信号。
阅读更多上次发布时间: 周三 11月 04, 2026 01:45
频率: 每月
实际值: 50.8
预期值: -
前值: 51.6
来源: IHS Markit
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