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新加坡元:PMI支撑增长,维持窄幅区间 – 德国商业银行

德国商业银行(Commerzbank)分析师指出,新加坡 10 月制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)小幅回落,但仍连续第 15 个月处于扩张区间,电子行业则受到与人工智能相关需求的支撑。他们认为,这表明第四季度制造业具有韧性,且 GDP 增长将延续至 2027 年初。在外汇方面,他们强调,自 9 月以来,美元/新加坡元一直在 1.2750–1.2850 区间内横盘交易,预计短期内将继续盘整。
美元/新加坡元横盘,PMI 具韧性
"10 月制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)从 9 月的 51.7 小幅回落至 51.4,但这仍标志着连续第 15 个月扩张。放缓反映出新订单(此前为 52.2)、产出(此前为 51.2)和就业(此前为 51.3)的增长速度减慢,分别为 52.1、51.0 和 51.1。"
"不过,新出口订单从此前的 51.8 小幅升至 51.9,表明外部需求依然具有韧性。电子行业 PMI 也从此前的 52.9 放缓至 52.5,但仍稳稳处于扩张区间。这得益于全球对与人工智能相关的半导体和电子产品的持续需求。电子行业新出口订单从此前的 53.1 升至 53.2,而新订单则从此前的 53.6 小幅回落至 53.5。"
"不过,新出口订单持续扩张,尤其是电子行业,表明外部需求依然强劲,也意味着 9 月份的疲软可能并不预示着更广泛的制造业下滑。第三季度 GDP 同比增长 5.4%,受到科技相关行业的支撑,而最新的 PMI 数据与第四季度继续增长相一致,尽管增速会更为温和。制造业在 2027 年上半年之前仍应是关键增长驱动力。"
"对于美元/新加坡元,自 9 月以来一直横盘交易,维持在 1.2750-1.2850 区间内。我们预计短期内将继续盘整,油价和美元将是主要驱动因素。"
(本文由人工智能工具协助创建,并经编辑审校。 了解更多。)
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