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印尼盾：MSCI风险强化上行偏向 – MUFG
MUFG 的 Lloyd Chan 指出，在 Fed 主席 Warsh 的言论降低了市场对再次加息的预期后，美元有所走软，但全球收益率仍然居高不下，使亚洲外汇的背景依然充满挑战。印尼盾已跌破 IDR18,000/USD，上涨的油价、疲弱的外部收支以及 MSCI 下调评级风险都在拖累 IDR。MUFG 维持对 USD/IDR 在 2027 年前进一步上行的预测。
MSCI 咨询加剧印尼盾压力
"我们对亚洲外汇仍持谨慎态度，因为居高不下的全球收益率和油价持续拖累外部脆弱性更高的货币。印尼仍是我们的主要担忧之一。印尼盾已跌破 IDR18,000/USD，而我们现有的框架显示，美国收益率走高、油价上涨导致外部收支恶化，以及印尼央行面临更艰难的权衡，这些因素共同构成压力。"
"MSCI 的担忧为印尼盾增添了另一层压力。MSCI 已启动咨询，考虑因持续缺乏透明度而将印尼直接从新兴市场重新归类为独立市场。重要的是，MSCI 指出，仅仅转为前沿市场并不足以反映这些担忧的严重程度。MSCI 对印尼股市分类的最终决定将于 2027 年 6 月 30 日前作出。"
"MSCI 的咨询可能会使外国投资者参与度在更长时间内保持低迷。MSCI 将维持其对部分指数调整的现有冻结。这对 IDR 很重要，因为在印尼本已面临油价上涨和外部收支恶化压力之际，外国股市参与度持续疲弱会削弱投资组合资金流入的一个潜在来源。"
"我们对 IDR 维持谨慎偏向。10 月份美联储可能暂停加息，或许会暂时缓解外部压力，但在印尼特定风险上升的情况下，我们认为这不足以扭转印尼盾的走势。油价冲击已经在侵蚀贸易帐，而 MSCI 的咨询如今又通过投资组合资金流渠道增加了另一重拖累。因此，我们维持 USD/IDR 进一步上行的偏向，现有预测为 2026 年第四季度 18,350，2027 年第一季度 18,500。"
（本文由人工智能工具协助生成，并经编辑审核。了解更多。）
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