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美国大选结果公布后，美元指数（DXY）跌至9月下旬低点附近的101.25
- 周三，DXY 遭遇大幅抛售，因美国大选初步结果显示民主党有望获胜。
- 避险资金流拖累美国债券收益率走低，对美元施加额外下行压力。
- 美联储加息押注和地缘政治风险可能限制在关键美国宏观数据公布前的进一步跌幅。
美元指数（DXY）衡量美元兑一篮子货币的表现，周三亚洲时段遭遇猛烈抛售，跌至 9 月下旬以来的最低水平，因美国中期选举的初步结果加剧了政治不确定性。事实上，最初的趋势显示民主党有可能同时控制众议院和参议院。这提高了华盛顿出现僵局的可能性，进而可能限制政府支出。
与此同时，民主党横扫国会可能对科技股和经济增长构成潜在利空，提振对避险资产的需求，并引发美国债券收益率新一轮下跌。这进一步拖累 DXY 日内跌至 101.25 区域。不过，鹰派的美国联邦储备委员会（Fed）预期，以及持续存在的地缘政治不确定性，为美元提供了一定支撑，并帮助限制更深的跌幅，因此激进看空交易者仍需保持谨慎。
根据 EMC Group 的 FedWatch 工具，交易员目前押注美联储在 12 月再次提高借贷成本的概率超过 75%。这一押注在周二劳工部公布的月度职位空缺和劳动力流动调查（JOLTS）报告后得到进一步确认，该报告显示，9 月职位空缺数增幅超出预期，达到 750 万个。在经济增长韧性和持续价格压力的背景下，这进一步巩固了市场对美联储即将加息的押注。
与此同时，唐纳德-特朗普总统周二表示，美国目前没有立即打击伊朗的计划，这与以色列总理本雅明-内塔尼亚胡暗示本周晚些时候可能发动袭击的说法相悖。不过，地缘政治风险溢价仍在发挥作用，因为一名伊朗高级官员告诉路透社，只有在制裁被取消且美国海上封锁结束后，霍尔木兹海峡才会重新开放。此外，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）表示，霍尔木兹海峡南部有四艘油轮在触雷后被摧毁。
不过，投资者仍对通过外交途径解决美伊战争的可能性抱有希望。接下来，周三美国经济日程将公布 ADP 私营部门就业报告和 ISM 服务业采购经理人指数（PMI）。除此之外，后续地缘政治消息也可能为 DXY 提供一些推动力。不过，市场焦点仍牢牢锁定在备受关注的美国月度就业数据，即周五公布的非农就业报告（NFP）上。
DXY 4小时图
技术分析
在4小时图上，DXY 在盘中跌破200周期简单移动平均线（SMA）后，短期仍维持看跌偏向。不过，需要进一步跌破101.26附近的首个支撑位，即38.2%斐波那契回撤位，才能支持进一步下探至100.75和100.24的观点。
此外，如果抛售压力重现，更广泛的结构性支撑位于99.51和98.59。上行方面，初步阻力位于101.71的200周期SMA，其后是101.89的23.6%回撤位，然后是102.92附近的近期周期锚点。
（本篇技术分析由 AI 工具协助撰写。 了解更多。）
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