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美元指数（DXY）在101.70附近持平；在伊朗不确定性中等待美国CPI报告
- DXY 停止隔夜跌势，并受到多重因素支撑。
- 美伊和谈信号不一，使地缘政治风险溢价持续存在。
- 美联储加息押注在美国 CPI 报告公布前进一步为美元提供支撑。
追踪美元兑一篮子货币表现的美元指数（DXY）周二亚洲时段在 101.70 区域附近盘整，市场正等待中东危机以及美国消费者通胀数据的进一步进展。
美国总统唐纳德-特朗普表示，结束对伊朗战争的积极势头正在形成，重启打击的可能性相当低，并宣称冲突实际上已经结束。然而，伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书穆赫辛-雷扎伊（Mohsen Rezaei）驳斥了有关正在进行谈判的报道，称其为假新闻，并重申华盛顿必须接受德黑兰提出的七项条件才能结束冲突。这使得地缘政治风险溢价持续存在，并支撑避险美元（USD）。
此外，上周五公布的强劲美国非农就业报告（NFP）再次确认了市场对美联储（Fed）即将加息的押注。根据 CME Group 的 FedWatch 工具，交易员目前押注美联储在 12 月再次提高借贷成本的概率超过 80%。这也成为支撑 DXY 的另一因素，不过多头选择在美国消费者物价指数（CPI）报告公布前观望，再进行新的押注。
关键通胀数据将被用来寻找更多有关美联储政策路径的线索。除此之外，后续地缘政治消息将对短期美元价格走势起关键作用，并为 DXY 提供一些有意义的推动力。与此同时，上述基本面背景也要求看空交易者保持谨慎，并为美元进一步贬值走势进行布局。
通货膨胀常见问题（FAQ）
通货膨胀衡量的是一篮子有代表性的商品和服务价格的上涨。总体通货膨胀通常以月比(MoM)和年比(YoY)为基础的百分比变化来表示。核心通货膨胀不包括食品和燃料等波动较大的因素，这些因素可能因地缘政治和季节性因素而波动。核心通胀是经济学家关注的数字，也是央行的目标水平，央行的任务是将通胀保持在可控水平，通常在2%左右。
消费者价格指数(CPI)衡量一篮子商品和服务在一段时间内的价格变化。它通常以月环比(MoM)和年同比(YoY)的百分比变化来表示。核心CPI是各国央行的目标，因为它不包括波动较大的食品和燃料投入。当核心CPI高于2%时，通常会导致更高的利率，反之亦然，当它低于2%时。由于较高的利率对货币有利，较高的通货膨胀通常会导致货币走强。当通胀下降时，情况正好相反。
一个国家的高通货膨胀会推高其货币的价值，尽管这似乎有悖常理，反之亦然。这是因为央行通常会提高利率以对抗更高的通胀，这会吸引更多的全球资本流入，这些投资者正在寻找一个有利可图的投资场所。
“以前，黄金是投资者在高通胀时期转向的资产，因为它能保值，虽然投资者在市场极端动荡时期仍然会购买黄金，因为它具有避险属性，但大多数时候并非如此。这是因为当通胀高企时，央行会提高利率来对抗通胀。较高的利率对黄金来说是负面的，因为相对于有息资产或将钱存入现金存款账户，它们增加了持有黄金的机会成本。另一方面，较低的通胀往往对黄金有利，因为它会降低利率，使这种明亮的金属成为更可行的投资选择。”
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