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加拿大元承压，因美国CPI强化了美联储偏鹰派前景
- 美元/加元因美国10月通胀数据公布后美元反弹而走强。
- 美国CPI超出预期后，交易员押注美联储12月再次加息。
- 加拿大疲弱的劳动力市场使加拿大央行12月利率决议更加复杂。
周二，美元/加元升至10月16日以来的最高水平，原因是强于预期的美国通胀提振了美元（USD），而在市场寄望于美伊外交之际油价下跌，也给加元（CAD）带来进一步压力。发稿时，该货币对交投于1.4167附近，日内上涨0.34%。
美国消费者物价指数（CPI）10月环比上涨0.4%，高于预期的0.3%，但低于9月的0.6%。剔除食品和能源价格的核心CPI上涨0.3%，与9月持平，高于预期的0.2%。由于去年政府停摆，美国劳工统计局（BLS）未公布10月CPI年率数据。
该数据强化了美联储（Fed）将在12月加息的预期，帮助美元收复前一交易日约一半的失地。美元指数（DXY）从盘中低点101.49攀升至102.00附近。
在数据公布前，美联储理事克里斯托弗-沃勒（Christopher Waller）表示，如果10月核心CPI“在0.3%左右或更高”，12月可能需要加息半个百分点。根据芝商所美联储观察工具（CME FedWatch Tool），交易员目前认为美联储加息25个基点的概率为85.3%，加息50个基点的概率为14.7%。
三菱日联/三菱东京日联（MUFG/BTMU）分析师认为，地缘政治发展可能在政策前景中发挥关键作用，并指出：“如果美伊达成结束冲突的协议取得进一步进展，这将有助于维持较低的能源价格，并减轻包括美联储在内的主要央行继续加息的压力。”
西德克萨斯中质油（WTI）跌向每桶84美元，创8月31日以来最低水平，本月迄今已下跌逾15%。美国总统唐纳德-特朗普表示，在周一于白宫与卡塔尔首相会谈后，结束与伊朗战争的“积极势头”正在形成。
加拿大是主要原油出口国，因此油价下跌会削弱出口收入，并拖累加元。与此同时，加拿大央行（BoC）在遏制通胀与支持疲弱劳动力市场之间面临艰难平衡，这也使12月加息前景变得不明朗。
加拿大统计局周五公布的数据显示，加拿大10月连续第三个月减少就业岗位。就业人数减少4.7K，而市场预期为增加13.6K。
下表显示了 美元 (USD) 对所列主要货币 今日的变动百分比。[货币名称]对[货币名称]最强。
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.33% | 0.46% | 0.51% | 0.33% | 0.73% | 0.40% | 0.58% | |
| EUR | -0.33% | 0.11% | 0.16% | -0.01% | 0.39% | 0.07% | 0.25% | |
| GBP | -0.46% | -0.11% | 0.04% | -0.11% | 0.28% | -0.05% | 0.14% | |
| JPY | -0.51% | -0.16% | -0.04% | -0.17% | 0.23% | -0.10% | 0.08% | |
| CAD | -0.33% | 0.00% | 0.11% | 0.17% | 0.40% | 0.06% | 0.25% | |
| AUD | -0.73% | -0.39% | -0.28% | -0.23% | -0.40% | -0.33% | -0.14% | |
| NZD | -0.40% | -0.07% | 0.05% | 0.10% | -0.06% | 0.33% | 0.19% | |
| CHF | -0.58% | -0.25% | -0.14% | -0.08% | -0.25% | 0.14% | -0.19% |
热图显示了主要货币相对于其他货币的百分比变化。基础货币从左列中选取，而报价货币从顶部行中选取。例如，如果您从左列选择 美元 并沿着水平线移动到 日元 ，则框中显示的百分比变化将表示 USD (基数)/ JPY (报价)。
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