布朗兄弟哈里曼（BBH）的 Elias Haddad 报告称，美元/离岸人民币（USD/CNH）继续缓慢下行，跌至 2023 年 1 月以来的最低水平，因为中国 8 月消费者物价指数（CPI）小幅上升，而整体通胀仍然低迷。由于 CPI 增幅落后于生产者物价指数（PPI），且企业定价能力受限，Haddad 认为，更强的人民币（CNY）可能有助于推动经济增长模式转向消费驱动，从而令美元/离岸人民币的下行趋势保持不变。
低迷的 CPI 支撑更强的人民币
"美元/离岸人民币继续缓慢下行，触及 2023 年 1 月以来的最低水平。中国 8 月 CPI 上升，但通胀仍然低迷。受通信设备和能源推动，总体 CPI 年率录得 0.8%，符合预期，7 月为 0.5%。8 月核心 CPI 和 PPI 均高于预期，分别为年率 1.0%（预期：0.9%，前值：0.9%）和年率 3.8%（预期：3.6%，前值：3.5%）。"
"与 PPI 通胀相比，疲弱的 CPI 表明企业定价能力有限，难以将更高成本转嫁给消费者，这压缩了利润率，也凸显出国内需求仍然疲软。在我们看来，人民币持续升值可以通过降低进口成本、提高可支配收入，帮助中国将增长模式转向消费支出。总而言之：美元/离岸人民币的下行趋势依然完好。"
(本文由人工智能工具协助生成，并经编辑审核。 了解更多。)
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