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人民币：因中国增长改善而对美元走强 – BBH
布朗兄弟哈里曼（Brown Brothers Harriman）的 Elias Haddad 报告称，在中国第三季度 GDP 强于预期后，美元/离岸人民币（USD/CNH）已跌至接近 6.6800 的多年新低，这使得经济增长仍有望实现政府 2026 年 4.5%–5.0% 的目标。BBH 强调，消费和投资方面的结构性疲弱依然存在，但仍认为美元/离岸人民币的下行趋势保持不变，受到离岸人民币国际化和内部再平衡的支撑。
增长意外向好，但结构性问题仍存
"美元/离岸人民币（USD/CNH）已跌至接近 6.6800 的多年新低。中国经济第三季度增长强于预期，仍有望实现政府 2026 年 4.5% 至 5.0% 的增长目标。实际 GDP 季率增长 1.2%（市场预期：1.0%），高于第二季度的 0.9%，前三季度年率增长 4.6%。"
"中国的增长目标被用作政策工具，用于指导经济/社会规划，而不是反映潜在供需动态。因此，对投资者而言，中国增长的质量和来源更为重要。"
"从这一角度看，中国的长期经济健康状况仍然疲弱，因为消费支出难以获得动能，而非住宅固定资产投资持续构成拖累。在今年前三季度，零售销售增长维持在同比 1.1% 不变，与 8 月份的 1.1% 持平，而剔除房地产开发的固定资产投资增长同比下降 -4.2%，与 8 月份的 -4.2% 持平。"
"尽管如此，在我们看来，美元/离岸人民币的下行趋势依然完好，这既反映了离岸人民币国际化的潜力，也反映了中国内部再平衡的故事。"
（本文由人工智能工具协助生成，并经编辑审核。了解更多。)
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