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泰铢：泰国央行维持利率不变，收益率曲线陡峭化风险上升 – 星展银行
星展银行研究部经济学家 Chua Han Teng 在泰国央行（BoT）连续第四次会议将政策利率维持在 1.00% 后，对泰国市场进行了分析。他预计，BoT 将在 2026 年之前维持按兵不动，使短端政府债券收益率保持稳定，同时警告称，长端收益率面临来自全球能源、食品价格以及美国国债外溢效应的陡峭化风险。
BoT 立场和收益率曲线展望
"泰国央行（BoT）在 10 月 28 日连续第四次决定将政策利率维持在 1.00%，短期内几乎没有调整的动力。"
"我们继续预计，BoT 将在 2026 年剩余时间内把政策利率维持在 1.00%，为短端政府债券收益率提供稳定背景。"
"我们认为泰国收益率曲线存在陡峭化风险。"
"虽然短端政府债券收益率应保持稳定，但长端收益率容易受到外部挑战带来的上行压力，包括全球能源和食品价格冲击的传导效应、更高且居高不下的美国国债收益率带来的外溢影响，以及疲弱的国内公共财政。"
"泰铢今年迄今兑美元已贬值约 7%，表现逊于地区同业，但鉴于强劲的外部缓冲有助于缓解汇率波动及相关风险，它不太可能成为重大的政策担忧。"
(本文由人工智能工具协助生成，并经编辑审核。了解更多。)
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