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纽元兑疲软美元跃升至两周高点，因新西兰联储的康威暗示将加息
- 纽元/美元在美国债券收益率大幅下跌之际重新获得买盘，美元从18个月高位回落。
- 纽储行首席经济学家保罗-康威（Paul Conway）的鹰派言论为纽元提供了额外支撑。
- 美联储加息押注和地缘政治风险可能限制美元跌幅，市场焦点现转向美国PPI报告。
周四亚洲时段，纽元/美元货币对强劲走高，延续前一交易日尾盘自0.5565区域的反弹，该区域为2025年4月以来最低水平。受多重因素支撑，现货价格升至近两周高点，接近0.5635区域。
尽管周三美国消费者通胀数据火热，投资者似乎仍确信美联储（Fed）将在10月政策会议上维持利率不变。此外，彭博社一则报道称，中国似乎正将美国证券转移至其他国家的非美国托管银行，这引发美国债券收益率大幅下跌。反过来，这促使部分美元（USD）延续获利回吐，并使其脱离18个月高位，为纽元/美元货币对提供了一定支撑。
与此同时，纽储行（RBNZ）首席经济学家保罗-康威表示，10月底的利率决定完全开放，央行仍认为OCR最有可能上调，尽管尚未就时机作出决定。反过来，这为新西兰元（NZD）提供了额外支撑，并推动纽元/美元货币对维持买盘基调。话虽如此，美元的回调跌势可能有限，因此在确认现货价格已经见底之前仍需保持谨慎。
根据CME集团的FedWatch工具，市场参与者仍在计入美联储将在今年年底前再次提高借贷成本的概率超过85%。此外，能源价格波动带来的通胀风险也支撑了美联储进一步收紧政策的前景。再加上中东局势升级以及美国与伊朗就霍尔木兹海峡的对峙，地缘政治风险溢价仍在发挥作用，这可能支撑避险美元，并限制纽元/美元货币对的上行空间。
交易员目前正等待北美时段稍晚公布的美国生产者物价指数（PPI），以寻求进一步推动力。除此之外，周五美联储主席凯文-沃什（Kevin Warsh）在曼谷举行的国际货币基金组织和世界银行年会上的讲话，也将被视为获取未来政策路径更多线索的机会。反过来，这一前景将在影响短期美元价格动态方面发挥关键作用，并为纽元/美元货币对提供一定的推动力。
纽元/美元 4小时图
技术分析
纽元/美元货币对难以在盘中涨幅基础上进一步突破 100 周期简单移动平均线（SMA）。此外，现货价格在 23.6% 斐波那契回撤位下方仍维持短期看跌基调，表明任何进一步上行都可能在 0.5600 中段附近遭遇卖盘。
进一步上方，0.5779 的 50.0% 回撤位和 0.5829 的 61.8% 水平在 0.5901 和 0.5992 之前构成密集阻力。下行方面，0.5566 的斐波那契锚点是下一个值得关注的支撑位，买家可能会尝试在此放缓跌势。
（本报道的技术分析由 AI 工具协助撰写。 了解更多。）
下表显示了 美元 (USD) 对所列主要货币 今日的变动百分比。[货币名称]对[货币名称]最强。
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.64% | -0.43% | -0.41% | -0.26% | 0.27% | -0.59% | -0.77% | |
| EUR | 0.64% | 0.21% | 0.21% | 0.35% | 0.95% | 0.04% | -0.14% | |
| GBP | 0.43% | -0.21% | 0.00% | 0.19% | 0.70% | -0.16% | -0.36% | |
| JPY | 0.41% | -0.21% | 0.00% | 0.14% | 0.70% | -0.21% | -0.37% | |
| CAD | 0.26% | -0.35% | -0.19% | -0.14% | 0.54% | -0.33% | -0.51% | |
| AUD | -0.27% | -0.95% | -0.70% | -0.70% | -0.54% | -0.87% | -1.05% | |
| NZD | 0.59% | -0.04% | 0.16% | 0.21% | 0.33% | 0.87% | -0.19% | |
| CHF | 0.77% | 0.14% | 0.36% | 0.37% | 0.51% | 1.05% | 0.19% |
热图显示了主要货币相对于其他货币的百分比变化。基础货币从左列中选取，而报价货币从顶部行中选取。例如，如果您从左列选择 美元 并沿着水平线移动到 日元 ，则框中显示的百分比变化将表示 USD (基数)/ JPY (报价)。
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