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美国美元指数维持低迷，因油价下跌缓解通胀压力
- 油价下跌打压美元指数，特朗普认为在持续核谈判背景下，伊朗进一步发动袭击的可能性不大。
- 10 月非农就业人数增加 16.5 万，显著超出预期，并提振了美元。
- CME 美联储观察工具显示，美联储加息 25 个基点的概率超过 78%。
衡量美元（USD）兑六种主要货币价值的美元指数（DXY）在连续两日上涨后失去动能，周一亚洲时段交投于 102.20 附近。
由于原油价格下跌有助于缓解通胀压力，美元短期面临阻力。美国总统唐纳德-特朗普表示，在伊朗核计划持续取得进展且霍尔木兹海峡保持开放的前提下，进一步对伊朗采取军事行动“极不可能”，能源市场因此回落。特朗普还承认，这场此前推高能源成本的中东不受欢迎冲突，在共和党近期中期选举失利中发挥了关键作用。
尽管面临这些即时压力，但在强劲的劳动力市场数据和对货币紧缩预期升温的推动下，美元（USD）有望重新站稳脚跟。根据 CME 美联储观察工具，12 月联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议上加息 25 个基点的概率已飙升至 78%以上。
美国强劲的就业数据强力支撑了偏鹰派的美联储情绪。10 月非农就业人数（NFP）激增 16.5 万，远超 6.5 万的市场共识预期，并在 9 月修正后的 6 万基础上进一步走强；失业率则降至 4.1%，好于 4.2%的预期。投资者和市场参与者现在将关注周二的消费者物价指数（CPI）报告以及周五的生产者物价指数（PPI）发布，以获取有关美联储即将出台政策路径的明确线索。
技术分析：
日线图上，美元指数现货交投于 102.20。由于价格维持在 9 期和 50 期指数移动平均线（EMA）上方，短期偏向看涨，表明整体趋势背景偏建设性。14 日相对强弱指数（RSI）位于 57 附近，暗示动能偏正面但尚未过热，而 FXS 美联储情绪指数位于 143.10，表明市场对政策收紧的预期仍处于高位，这为美元买盘提供支撑。
下行方面，初步支撑位于 9 期 EMA 附近的 101.95，更深层的技术支撑位在 50 期 EMA 附近的 101.36，若回调压力延续，该水平可能构成支撑。只要美元指数现货维持在这些移动平均线支撑位上方，阻力最小的路径仍然是上行，任何回落都可能被视为更广泛看涨趋势中的盘整。
（本篇文章的技术分析由人工智能工具协助撰写。了解更多。）
下表显示了 美元 (USD) 对所列主要货币 今日的变动百分比。 美元 对 纽元 最弱。
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.11% | -0.16% | -0.14% | -0.09% | -0.38% | -0.82% | 0.09% | |
| EUR | 0.11% | -0.05% | 0.00% | 0.02% | -0.28% | -0.70% | 0.20% | |
| GBP | 0.16% | 0.05% | 0.06% | 0.07% | -0.23% | -0.66% | 0.25% | |
| JPY | 0.14% | 0.00% | -0.06% | 0.03% | -0.26% | -0.69% | 0.21% | |
| CAD | 0.09% | -0.02% | -0.07% | -0.03% | -0.29% | -0.72% | 0.18% | |
| AUD | 0.38% | 0.28% | 0.23% | 0.26% | 0.29% | -0.43% | 0.48% | |
| NZD | 0.82% | 0.70% | 0.66% | 0.69% | 0.72% | 0.43% | 0.91% | |
| CHF | -0.09% | -0.20% | -0.25% | -0.21% | -0.18% | -0.48% | -0.91% |
热图显示了主要货币相对于其他货币的百分比变化。基础货币从左列中选取，而报价货币从顶部行中选取。例如，如果您从左列选择 美元 并沿着水平线移动到 日元 ，则框中显示的百分比变化将表示 USD (基数)/ JPY (报价)。
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