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非农推升美元，人民币中间价小幅调贬
- 人民币对美元中间价调贬20基点。
- 中国10月CPI同比0.7%、环比0.0%。
- 本周美国CPI数据将受关注。
今日人民币对美元中间价报6.7188，较上周五的6.7168调贬20个基点，较路透预测仍偏弱约370点，与上周四和周五的偏离水平基本一致。上周五公布的美国10月非农新增16.5万，远超市场预期的6.5万，失业率降至4.1%，12月加息概率从67%回升至约76%，美元指数随之走强。在这一外部条件下，中国央行接受了美元走强带来的被动调整，继续把中间价维持在比市场预期偏弱约370点的位置。
中国国家统计局今日公布10月物价数据：CPI同比上涨0.7%，较9月的0.9%小幅回落；环比为0.0%，前值为0.2%。食品价格走低是主要拖累，能源价格和服务消费形成一定对冲。PPI同比则延续上行至5.3%附近，原油产业链价格仍是主要支撑。CPI略微回落保留了货币政策适度宽松的空间，不会对汇率形成紧缩式支撑；PPI虽维持高位，但随着布油近期大幅回落，后续上行动能可能边际减弱。通胀数据本身不构成人民币短期方向的决定变量。
中东方面出现了两条方向相反但同步推进的线索。外交层面，美国副总统万斯过去两周直接介入了与伊朗的间接磋商，美伊谈判“提级”，目标仍是达成新的停火并重启核谈判。但军事层面并未降温：胡塞武装周日袭击了沙特阿美位于利雅得金融区的总部大楼，多层玻璃被震碎，沙特阿美储油罐和机场也遭到打击。此外，有美媒提到11月9日正值新月夜、夜空无月光，这一条件在技术上有利于空袭行动。外交渠道的“提级”降低了极端升级的概率，但胡塞对沙特核心设施的持续打击意味着供应风险并未系统性解除，油价在地缘溢价与外交预期之间维持拉锯。
后市关注：一是本周美国CPI数据，若继续强化12月加息定价，美元可能进一步走强，人民币区间防守将面临更大压力；二是中间价偏离幅度是继续维持在370点附近，还是重新向500点以上扩大，若扩大则意味着央行在主动加大“控速”力度；三是美伊谈判“提级”能否转化为可核实的停火安排，这将决定油价的地缘溢价能否持续回吐，进而影响通胀预期与美联储路径的定价。
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