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美元：支撑性基本面抵消赤字担忧 - 荷兰合作银行
荷兰合作银行（Rabobank）的外汇策略团队认为，对美联储政治干预的担忧减弱，以及避险需求重新升温的迹象，支撑着美元。该行指出，围绕美国预算赤字和国债市场压力的担忧可能在中期内拖累美元，但最终认为，去年有关美元贬值的担忧被夸大了。
美联储公信力与避险动态
"对美联储遭受政治干预的担忧减弱，是支撑美元（USD）的一个因素。此外，在海湾战争开始时，对美元（USD）的强劲需求削弱了去年关于美元（USD）至少部分失去避险价值的说法。在我们看来，美元（USD）的避险吸引力与其在全球支付系统中的嵌入式地位有关，而这一地位可能需要数十年才能动摇。"
"对美元公信力的担忧减弱，应会让美元有更多机会受益于美国强劲的经济增长表现。此外，在我们看来，未来几个月欧元（EUR）可能面临的压力，可能会支持市场偏好持有美元多头头寸。"
"美国庞大的预算赤字仍存在在中期内拖累美元（USD）的风险。美国预算赤字超过 GDP 的 6%，高于法国。不过，数十年来，美国一直受益于所谓的‘过度特权’，即由于对其债务的强劲需求，美国能够以相对较低的收益率为债务融资。"
"有迹象表明，这种‘特权’已经有所减弱。这体现在与其他债券市场相比收益率利差的变化，以及国债市场出现压力的迹象。事实上，在过去约 19 个月里，美国国债市场确实出现过几次明显且令人不安的抛售。"
"无论如何，去年有关美元贬值的担忧似乎被夸大了。"
(本文由人工智能工具协助创建，并经编辑审核。了解更多。)
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