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泰铢：双顶形态暗示兑美元可能反转 – 华侨银行

FXStreet Insights Team

October 29, 2026

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华侨银行（OCBC）的沈莫雄（Sim Moh Siong）和黄克文（Christopher Wong）报告称，泰国央行（BoT）将利率维持在 1%，同时上调了增长预期，并指出油价和厄尔尼诺带来的通胀风险。他们预计短期内政策将继续按兵不动，2027 年上半年将累计加息 50 个基点。美元/泰铢的双顶形态指向 33.62 的关键支撑位以及 33.85/90 附近的阻力位。

BoT 按兵不动，形态正在形成

"美元/泰铢隔夜从近期高点略有回落。在政策决定中，BoT 将政策利率维持在 1% 不变，符合我们的基本预期。该央行上调了 2026 年和 2027 年的增长预测，受益于与 AI 周期相关的更强出口和投资。"

"我们对泰铢短期前景维持略偏谨慎的看法。增长预期上调令人鼓舞，而鉴于复苏不均衡，BoT 似乎也乐于维持宽松政策。我们的经济学家预计，BoT 将在 12 月 23 日的 MPC 会议上维持政策利率不变，但将继续关注声明措辞，以评估其立场是否已转向略偏鹰派。"

"我们的基本预期仍然认为，BoT 将通过在 2027 年上半年累计加息 50 个基点来使政策利率正常化。就目前而言，外部因素对泰铢走势仍更为关键。美元和油价回落，以及金价企稳，可能会带来一些缓解，不过能源价格压力重新上升仍是风险。"

"日线动能持平，而 RSI 小幅走低。我们此前已提示双顶形态。若双顶看跌反转成立，初步支撑位将位于 33.62（21 日均线）和 33.25/30（50 日、100 日均线）。阻力位在 33.85/90 水平（双顶）。"

（本文由人工智能工具协助创建，并由编辑审阅。 了解更多。）

FXStreet Insights Team

October 29, 2026

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