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美联储鹰派重新掌控局面，纽元遭受打击
- 纽元/美元周三下跌 0.68%，因美国通胀数据高于预期后美元走强。
- 美国消费者价格在 10 月份涨幅超出预期，强化了进一步收紧货币政策的预期。
- 油价下跌缓解了新西兰的通胀压力，降低了加息的可能性。
纽元/美元周三重新承压，日内下跌 0.68%，截至发稿时交投于 0.5565 附近。由于美国通胀数据强于预期，市场对美联储（Fed）进一步加息的预期升温，纽元（NZD）兑美元（USD）表现疲弱。
周二公布的 10 月美国消费者物价指数（CPI）数据显示，整体通胀率在 10 月环比上涨 0.4%，高于市场预期的 0.3%，尽管较 9 月的 0.6% 涨幅有所放缓。与此同时，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格的核心 CPI 环比上涨 0.3%，高于预期的 0.2%，并与 9 月读数持平。这些数据表明，潜在通胀压力依然顽固，强化了采取更具限制性货币政策的理由。
在通胀数据公布后，投资者大幅提高了对 12 月加息的预期。根据 CME FedWatch 工具，市场目前认为美联储下次会议加息的概率约为 85%，反映出市场对持续通胀的担忧不断加剧。
这份通胀意外数据还引发了周二美国国债抛售，推动基准 10 年期美国国债收益率升至 5% 上方。更高的债券收益率提升了以美元计价资产的吸引力，进一步给纽元/美元货币对带来压力。
在新西兰方面，纽元还面临油价下跌带来的额外阻力，这可能有助于缓解通胀压力，并降低新西兰央行（RBNZ）进一步收紧货币政策的必要性。
更低的能源成本可能有助于抑制消费者价格上涨，促使投资者下调对未来纽储行加息的预期。美国和新西兰之间货币政策预期的分化继续拖累该货币对。
与此同时，新西兰的政治发展仍是市场关注焦点，投资者正密切关注持续进行的联合政府谈判，以及财政部长职位周围的不确定性。
在此背景下，美元走强、美国国债收益率上升以及市场对新西兰联储（RBNZ）货币紧缩预期减弱的组合，可能继续限制纽元的反弹前景。
NZD/USD 技术分析
在一小时图上，NZD/USD 报 0.5564，维持短期看跌倾向，因为汇价仍低于 100 周期简单移动均线（SMA）0.5595 和 200 周期 SMA 0.5609。该货币对正逼近近期区间下沿，而相对强弱指数（14）滑入接近 25 的超卖区域，暗示尽管修正性反弹的风险开始累积，下行压力仍在持续。
上行方面，初步阻力位于 0.5573，随后是 0.5586，之后是 100 周期 SMA 0.5595 和 200 周期 SMA 0.5609，这一密集供给区需要被突破，才能缓解当前的看跌基调。下行方面，直接支撑位于 0.5555，随后支撑位分别在 0.5544 和 0.5527；若跌破这些水平，将暴露更深的跌势，而若守住其上，则可能推动超卖反弹至附近阻力带。
（本报道的技术分析由 AI 工具协助撰写。 了解更多。）
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