渣打银行经济学家 Tim Leelahaphan 预计，泰国央行（BoT）将把政策利率维持在 1.0%，直至 2026 年和 2027 年，且泰国央行将把经济增长置于通胀之上。他指出，这一按兵不动的判断面临不对称风险，并表示任何加息都可能是渐进式的，而如果国内增长大幅放缓，降息则可能更快。
预计泰国央行将按兵不动至 2027 年
"我们维持观点不变，认为尽管美联储（Fed）可能进一步加息，且国内通胀近期出现上行反转，泰国央行（BoT）仍将在 2026 年剩余时间及 2027 年将政策利率维持在 1.0% 不变。"
"我们认为，我们关于按兵不动的判断在两个方向上都存在风险。随着主要央行和地区央行加息，泰国央行可能面临收紧政策的压力。与此同时，如果国内增长大幅放缓，也不能排除泰国央行进一步降息的可能。"
"我们认为这些风险是不对称的：任何加息都可能是渐进式的，而降息则可能来得更快。"
"更新后的通胀预测可能显示通胀回落将比目前预期的急剧下降更为渐进；我们预计通胀将继续保持在泰国央行 1-3% 的目标区间内，且通胀主要由供给侧驱动。"
"鉴于迫近的经济不确定性，增长预测可能更棘手。"
(本文由人工智能工具协助创建，并经过编辑审校。了解更多。)
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