The information provided is of general nature only and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on any information provided, you should consider whether the information is suitable for you and your personal circumstances and if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice. All opinions, conclusions, forecasts or recommendations are reasonably held at the time of compilation but are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Go Markets Pty Ltd, ABN 85 081 864 039, AFSL 254963 is a CFD issuer, and trading carries significant risks and is not suitable for everyone. You do not own or have any interest in the rights to the underlying assets. You should consider the appropriateness by reviewing our TMD, FSG, PDS and other CFD legal documents to ensure you understand the risks before you invest in CFDs. These documents are available here.
Any references to Australian or international shares, sectors, indices, ETFs, crypto-related stocks or other instruments are provided for market commentary and watchlist purposes only and do not constitute a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any financial product or adopt any investment strategy. International markets may involve additional risks, including currency fluctuations, regulatory differences, market structure differences, reduced liquidity and higher volatility. Company-specific, sector-specific and macroeconomic risks may also affect performance.
Commentary on geopolitical developments, economic data, central bank decisions, earnings, policy changes and other global or financial market events is based on information available at the time of publication and may change without notice. Such events can lead to sudden market moves, price gaps, reduced liquidity, wider spreads and increased volatility, particularly in leveraged products such as CFDs. Forward-looking statements, expectations and scenario analysis are inherently uncertain and should not be relied on as guarantees of future market behaviour or outcomes.
人民币中间价短暂调升后再次调贬
- 人民币中间价短暂调升后再度调贬。
- 中间价与路透预测偏离幅度维持在370个点附近。
- 今晚非农与下周一中间价将观察央行的短期意图。
11月6日，人民币对美元中间价报6.7168，较昨日的6.7156调贬12个基点，结束了昨日短暂的调升。在岸人民币昨收6.6680，离岸昨收6.6646，仍在6.66—6.67附近运行。今日中间价较路透预测仍偏弱约370点，与昨日基本持平。本周初的偏离幅度曾高达521点和660点，近几日已稳定在370点一线。
如果只看幅度，12个基点的调贬在中间价的日常波动中微不足道，单日几十个基点以内的变动，本身并不构成方向性信号。但把时间拉长一天来看，本周从11月2日开始连续三天中间价调贬，昨天刚调升24个基点，今天立刻调贬12个基点。它传递的信号是：央行不愿意让中间价形成一条清晰、持续的上行线，不愿意给市场留下“单边升值启动”的印象。
这与央行近期的操作逻辑一致——本周上调外汇存准率是为了弱化单边升值预期，周初中间价连续偏弱521点和660点也是同样的意图。到了本周中段，偏离幅度收窄至370点，昨日调升24点可以理解为对美元走弱的技术性跟随；但今日立刻调贬，说明央行并不打算让这次跟随演变成新一轮升值的起点。
今晚非农结合下周一中间价，将观察中国央行的短期意图
今晚美国10月非农数据将公布，对人民币而言，将关注数据公布后美元的表现以及下周一人民币中间价随之作出的反应，这将检验短期内中国央行是希望人民币在当前区间稳住、暂缓进一步升值，还是中国央行更多的是想要控制人民币升值的速度，并不排斥人民币短期内进一步走高。换句话说，美元的强弱决定外部条件，中间价的反应则决定政策态度。
Related Articles
美元/印尼盾（USD/IDR）在连续两日下跌后重新走强，周五亚洲时段交投于 18,140 附近。由于印尼盾（IDR）在亚洲外汇市场变化中面临阻力，而这些变化主要受全球风险情绪和科技板块波动推动，该货币对走高。
西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）——美国原油基准价格——周五连续第二个交易日获得积极的后续推动力，延续了前一日从 86.00 美元关口（两个月多低点）回升的势头。
欧元/美元在周五欧洲早盘时段于1.1195附近走弱。市场可能在今日稍晚转为谨慎，等待周五稍晚公布的德国工业生产、欧元区零售销售和美国就业报告。