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美联储沃勒呼吁提高利率以抑制通胀
- 美联储理事克里斯托弗-沃勒认为美国货币政策的限制性还不够强。
- 10 月份 0.3% 的月度通胀读数可能需要更激进的政策行动。
- 这位美联储理事认为，需要更高的利率才能将通胀压低。
据路透社报道，美联储（Fed）理事克里斯托弗-沃勒周二发表鹰派言论，称利率需要上升，以对通胀施加下行压力。
要点
美国 10 月 CPI 月率若为 0.3%，将表明通胀正远离目标，需要更激进的政策行动。
我认为，短期内我们不会看到人工智能带来广泛的生产率提升。
实际利率必须上升，以维持货币政策的限制性水平。
政策的限制性远没有我原先认为的那么强。
我们需要提高利率，以对通胀施加下行压力。
在被问及股价大幅波动时，他表示，这通常对其利率观点并不重要。
民主党控制国会将对总统对美联储的任命起到制衡作用。
市场反应
在沃勒发表鹰派言论后，美元（USD）反弹，收复此前失地；截至周二，美元指数（DXY）交投于 101.70 附近，当日上涨 0.05%。
随着通胀担忧加剧，沃勒警示 12 月加息幅度可能更大
美联储的沃勒传递出明显更为鹰派的信息，FXS Speechtracker 评分为 9/10，远高于 7.3/10 的历史均值，凸显出政策偏向明显转向更紧缩立场。若 10 月核心 CPI 读数接近 0.3% 或更高，他明确表示愿意在 12 月加息半个百分点；即便数据更好，也支持至少加息 25 个基点，这表明只要通胀出现偏离目标的迹象，他就会作出强烈反应。其强调广泛的价格压力、仍然稳健的增长和劳动力状况，以及认为政策限制性不如先前所想的观点，强化了美元和短端收益率的上行风险。
FXS 美联储情绪指数上升 3.17 点至 145.50，令该指标深陷鹰派区间，并与偏高的 FXS Speechtracker 评分相一致。这一组合指向市场叙事重新转向紧缩决心，如果后续通胀数据未能显示出令人信服的进展，市场预期将转向更高、且可能更快的加息路径。
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