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美元：选择性走强与年末漂移 – 道明证券
由 Jayati Bharadwaj 及其同事领导的道明证券（TD Securities）宏观团队认为，尽管受人工智能驱动的全球股市抛售影响，美元（USD）的涨幅依然温和，这表明美元正在失去其轻松避险资产的地位。他们预计，美国与世界其他地区（RoW）股市表现的相对强弱仍将是关键驱动因素。
避险吸引力减弱，美元下行空间有限
"我们仍然认为，美国与世界其他地区（RoW）股市的相对表现是广义美元的主要驱动因素。上周在风险偏好回落的背景下，美元涨幅依然温和，这印证了我们的观点，即美元已不再是过去那种轻松的避险货币。尽管美元在周五美国非农就业数据公布后反弹，但非农数据的意外程度足以解释当日美元的涨幅（我们此前估计，DXY 指数每较市场共识预期多增加 2 万个就业岗位，当日将上涨 +0.1%）。如果由人工智能推动的美国股市表现不佳持续下去，我们预计美元将在年底前小幅走弱，就像 2018 年那样。"
"虽然我们预计美元在年底前会有一些温和下行，但幅度可能有限，因为欧元仍受法国债务脆弱性的拖累。与此同时，我们也认为美元缺乏明显上行突破的充分理由，因为整体美元持仓仍偏多，市场很可能已经消化了美联储最鹰派的立场，而且美元仍有空间向美国股市相对表现不佳的方向回落。"
"尽管美元在我们的评分表中仍排名靠前，但其整体地位在过去一个月已经恶化。"
"美元仍受益于有利的外部收支背景、依然具有韧性的美国经济，以及其颇具吸引力的套息收益。不过，股市因素已转为看跌美元。"
（本文由人工智能工具协助生成，并经编辑审核。了解更多。）
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