渣打银行认为，欧洲的政治平衡可能在2027年向右转，法国、西班牙、意大利和波兰的关键选举将成为焦点。该行强调法国总统选举最为关键，并警告称国民联盟（RN）获胜将对市场不利。该行还指出，保守派和民粹右翼势力的潜在上升可能重塑欧盟机构，并限制气候、移民和贸易政策。
欧盟机构面临右倾压力
"明年有可能使欧盟政治重心出现明显右移。"
"鉴于法国在欧洲的政治和经济分量，风险最高的是法国，那里将于2027年4月举行的总统选举可能会带来极右翼国民联盟（RN）的胜利。"
"右转最明显的影响将体现在欧洲理事会，在那里，协商一致的文化将为极右翼领导人塑造谈判提供空间，并威胁在需要一致同意的领域动用国家否决权。"
"在欧洲议会中，这可能会增加中右翼欧洲人民党（EPP）与极右翼团体更紧密合作的压力，而在欧盟委员会层面，一个更偏右的理事会可能会限制冯德莱恩主席认为在政治上可实现的内容。"
"右翼和极右翼政府未必会在政策层面就应实施或改变什么达成一致，因此，他们的影响可能更多体现在阻止或淡化既有欧盟议程的能力上，从而在某些领域造成政治瘫痪。"
（本文由人工智能工具协助生成，并经编辑审核。了解更多。）
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